Rockets to face Thunder in 1st Round

https://theathletic.com/2000055/202...ive-x-factor-key-matchup-prediction-and-more/

Spoiler

You’d have to imagine the basketball gods are sitting around somewhere watching reruns of Inside the NBA and smiling at this one, right?

Since the Chris Paul-Russell Westbrook trade went down in July, the Rockets and Thunder have often been spoken about in concordance with each other. It was the Rockets who were viewed as the team still hell-bent on competing with the upper echelon of the league and the Thunder who were seen as a team destined for a reboot. Whether you want to attribute it to general NBA wackiness, Houston’s season (below internal expectations), Oklahoma City’s season (above external expectations), or anything in between, this first-round matchup figures to be a bloodbath.

Evaluating this series might be a tad different than the other seven around the league simply for the huge caveat that small ball presents itself as. The first three matchups this season featured Clint Capela and because of this, there are certain offensive changes that come for Houston, just as you can pinpoint to certain defensive tweaks for the Thunder. The Rockets team that will take the floor on Tuesday evening is quite different than the one that got embarrassed at Chesapeake Bay Arena on January 20, and for that.

Heading into the restart, there were reasons for strong optimism about Houston’s postseason chances, at least from the standpoint of a non-traditional dark horse. Westbrook’s injury certainly changes their outlook a bit due to the potential of a longer and harder first round. This series will be thrilling and will surely have their fair share of twists and turns. Let’s get it into it.

Season Outlook

______________Rockets | Thunder
Offensive Rating: 112.5 (6th) | 110.1 (17th)
Defensive Rating: 109.8 (15th) | 108.1 (7th)
Net Rating: 2.7 (8th) | 2.1 (12th)
Rebound %: 48.0 (29th) | 49.2 (22nd)
TOV%: 14.7 (15th) | 13.7 (6th)
Pace: 104.0 (2nd) | 99.4 (21st)
Fastbreak Points: 14.6 (9th) | 9.5 (29th)

Right off the bat, you’ll see why this series has the potential to be intriguing. Evaluating these two teams from an entire season’s body of work tells you this is a great offensive team/decent defensive team (Houston) against a great defensive team/decent offensive team (Oklahoma City).

Coming into the bubble, head coach Mike D’Antoni wanted to see an improvement in two areas: pace and defensive intensity. The eight-game restart sample size is hardly the one to make defining judgments, but this is the best indicator of where teams are after four months away.

This isn’t like, say a preseason, where you would have to take certain production or statistical showings with a grain of salt. The Rockets have the second-best defensive rating and lead the league in pace in the bubble, and managed to keep that even without Westbrook. The Thunder are in the bottom ten in pace due to the style of play Chris Paul entails, a more methodical wizardry. It’s also why they rank just outside the top five in terms of ball security.

Even without Westbrook’s services, Houston could punish a slow-playing Thunder team in the open floor, especially if they are able to get a decent amount of stops prior. Harden’s pace without Westbrook on the floor naturally drops, but this is an area that has been stressed to him.

Schedule

The most interesting part of this restart has been the quick turnaround times for games. Without the need for travel back and forth between cities, there’s an added rest factor but some of that is negated with games every other day. This puts an added importance on trainers and medical staff to ensure that players aren’t putting too much pressure on themselves during games ( minutes allocation recommendations) and that there is adequate cooling downtime afterward.

D’Antoni has reiterated he’ll be leaning on this internal advice once the postseason starts and he’ll need to—there would have been five games already played in nine days, whereas in a normal season that might only be three or four.

Season Series (Thunder win 2-1)

Game 1, Oct. 28: Paul’s first game back in Houston is a strange one, at least from an emotions standpoint. The Thunder jump out to an early lead in the first half, but a big response from Harden (40 points) paves the way for a 116-112 win. The most important part of the evening comes after the final buzzer, with a hilarious locker room conversation between Westbrook, Paul, and the Thunder role players.

Game 2, Jan. 9: Uh, this was, uh, not a good basketball game for Houston. It was still a great night regardless, soaking up all the feels as Westbrook returned to the only place he’d called home in the NBA. Perhaps the emotions were too high? Westbrook is the only Rocket who shows any sense of urgency (34 points, five assists) as the rest of the team shoots just 38 percent from the floor and 27.5 percent from deep. Thunder take this one 113-92.

Game 3, Jan. 20: A quick turnaround from the previous meeting doesn’t bode any different for Houston. D’Antoni is in prime playoff form rolling with an eight-man rotation, but the Rockets actually held a 15-point fourth-quarter lead in this one. 61 points between Harden and Westbrook aren’t enough to stop a scorching Dennis Schroeder and Danillo Gallinari in the clutch. Thunder win again, 112-107. Rockets losing streak continues…

Rotations

This has to be what everyone is thinking about heading into this series, right? D’Antoni told me right before the restart that after consulting with GM Daryl Morey and looking at data, nine players was the optimal rotational size. This came as a bit of a shock to the world due to D’Antoni’s penchant for shorter rotations but so far in the restart, he’s made improvements in that aspect.

Westbrook’s injury tweaks things a bit where outside of Harden-Gordon-House-Tucker-Covington, you have McLemore, Green, and Rivers. That’s an eight-man rotation right there. If Houston insists on playing nine guys, could we see time from Demarre Carroll and/or Luc Mbah a Moute? I wouldn’t bet my mortgage on it (I don’t have one, but you get the reference), but with the frequency of games, perhaps you have to trust some a little more than usual.

Thanks to my colleague Blake Murphy, there’s a neat website that shows NBA rotations for the year. Here’s Houston’s:





The bulk of how playoff games are decided comes from the starters but this is an interesting series given the importance of depth, rotations, and minute-sequencing.

Coach Donovan is much more willing to play a larger rotation, playing twelve guys at a time at one point. Outside of the starters plus Schroeder, Bazely, Diallo, Nader, Ferguson, Roberson, and Muscala have gotten playing time. Against the Rockets, Donovan probably wouldn’t stretch it to 12 or 13 guys because you run the risk of rhythm. Who drops off? Maybe Noel if you have concerns about small ball and Nader for lack of experience. Our Erik Horne believes Diallo could even be one to drop because he has the tendency to foul, and the worst thing you can do in a playoff series is to give easy points to the opposition.

Key matchup: Chris Paul vs. the field

During their three regular-season meetings, Danuel House got the bulk of the responsibility when it comes to defending Paul, matching up with him for just about eight minutes. That doesn’t sound like a ton, but when you remember that a single possession is 24 seconds and not every opportunity down the floor lasts for that long, it becomes a more prominent number.

This doesn’t mean he’ll necessarily get that responsibility now.

“Eric will start against him but as you know, if they make one pass or movement, we’ll switch,” D’Antoni said Sunday. “Everyone’s going to have their shot at it, everybody will be guarding everybody. The matchup, realistically, when you get back on defense sometimes you match up with the man closest to you, so I would say more than not, it will be evenly distributed throughout the team.”

 

Spoiler

Guarding Chris Paul

Player | Matchup Minutes | Partial Possessions | Points | Turnovers | FGM | FGA
Danuel House | 7:59 | 30.1 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 9
Russell Westbrook | 6:41 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4
P.J. Tucker | 5:11 | 20.8 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 6
Ben McLemore | 4:22 | 16.6 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 8
Robert Covington | 4:17 | 15.5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4
James Harden | 4:07 | 15.3 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2

It must be noted that Covington’s numbers here are from his time with the Timberwolves as all three meetings took place before he arrived. Gordon, who D’Antoni marked, isn’t on this list because he hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and when he was available wasn’t matched up with Paul for a significant amount of time. His presence changes some things, given how he’s performed defensively in playoffs past—notably keeping Donovan Mitchell in Fort Bend County Jail—but it’s unknown just how his ankle will hold up in this series.

When guarding Paul, it’s important to show pressure early and often. He’s a tricky blur of a player that can pick you apart once you give him time and space. The Thunder want to get Harden matched onto him (NBA Twitter loves this), but House is able to use his upper body strength and quickness to cut off Paul’s supply. Good things tend to happen when the Rockets show pressure:

Vid

It’s not that often that Houston will trap players like they see happen to Harden on a nightly basis, but Paul will see them at some point. When you’re able to switch smoothly and help from the right areas, combined with poor spacing from the opponent, you create favorable situations. The Rockets will let Bazley take this all day:

Vid

D’Antoni indicated that Gordon will get this matchup, but he can’t/won’t defend Paul every time down the floor? Why? Because sometimes, length versus lateral quickness is a valuable tradeoff. Sometimes, you get the best of both worlds and don’t lose in either aspect. Watch House throughout this entire possession against one of the craftiest players in the world. The ‘second jump’ he employs is what Rockets coaches often marveled at Clint Capela for having. It allows your longer players to still maintain their defensive advantage and without fouling, a huge plus:

Vid

X-factor: Harden-Green synergy

I was laughed out of the room when it was suggested to me by team sources that Green was going to play an important role in Houston’s restart, but so far he’s looked good. The Rockets laid out a simple gameplan for him within their offense, namely establishing pick-and-roll chemistry with Harden, plays that evolve out of that (finding open shooters), and using his own skillset (athletic, capable ball-handling big) to finish around the rim.

They’ve looked extremely comfortable together so far. Per a source with access to Second Spectrum tracking, the Harden/Green pick-and-roll generates 1.46 points per chance on 34 attempts and 1.58 points per chance on 24 “direct” play ending attempts. A direct play ending attempt—as it pertains to PnR—occurs when either player shoots, gets fouled (resulting in free throws), turns the ball over, or passes it to another teammate who shoots or gets fouled themselves.

Green’s value lies in his versatility. As a rim-runner, he’s able to do so much with the ball from a finishing and spacing perspective. This side pick-and-roll resulting in the short corner lob is straight out of Capela’s playbook:

Vid

The Rockets offense is at its best when it’s simplified. All this takes a split second of Harden initiating action out of high pick-and-roll, Green tagging and slipping, and a timely bounce pocket pass to take 3 defenders out of the play. Then, it’s a simple math equation. 3 on 2, with a business decision to make. Cheap assist, too:

Vid

Green has always been a good-not-great shooter in his career (right around 34%), but up until Houston’s final two restart games, he was averaging 6.5 attempts on 35.9% shooting. That’s more than what Houston needs from him coming off the bench. For all that Capela was, he simply would have clogged the paint here coming off this screen. Green can just hang back momentarily knowing the ball will find its way back to him:

Vid

Shooters Shoot

The Rockets lead the league by a healthy margin in threes hoisted per game (45.3). The Thunder, being the smart, stingy defense that they are, allow 12 less per game.

Will the Rockets hit enough outside shots? If Oklahoma City sends doubles at Harden repeatedly, these shots will be open all day for Houston, but they have to hit them consistently. During the restart, Houston launched an even higher number of attempts (53.6!) but only converted 32.6% of those. That’s risky business.

Rockets Shooting

Player | 3PA/G | 3P%
P.J. Tucker | 4.2 | 35.8
Robert Covington | 7.6 | 31.5
Danuel House | 5.6 | 36.3
Eric Gordon | 8.4 | 31.7
Austin Rivers | 4 | 35.6
Ben McLemore | 6.4 | 40
Jeff Green | 4.4 | 35.4

Covington’s efficiency has been way done since the restart, which should worry Houston. He just hasn’t been able to get going at all. Another aspect to monitor is how Houston generates these looks. Westbrook was so good at using his speed and strength to draw defenders in and kick it to the corners. Without him, who fills that void? There’s going to be a lot more methodical offense with him out to compensate, in addition to the drive-and-kicks that Harden and others are able to do.

This is probably the biggest factor for a lengthened series for Houston and one that will get them in trouble at times. I’d be shocked if there isn’t at least one game where the Rockets don’t miss 30+ threes and rue it afterward.

Additional thoughts

• The Thunder aren’t that good of a rebounding team nor are they adept in the second-chance department, ranking in the bottom ten in both categories. I don’t think that changes much versus Houston, due to their nature of a guard-oriented team. I think Houston can survive in that aspect, where they might have had trouble against a Denver-type.

• Harden has been on a ridiculous tear but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him come down to Earth a bit here. While it may be at the worst possible time, the Thunder are just that good of a defensive team. They have the ability to slow him down and make it difficult to get to his sweet spots. The Paul factor only amplifies what figures to be an aggressive approach. This won’t be a walk in the park by any means.

• Houston doesn’t have the benefit of lineup data to predict future success against this team. This season, the lineup sans Capela that played the most only did so for a total of 11 minutes. That’s less than ideal.

• Ben McLemore and Danuel House are going to come up big in this series and will be on teams’ free agency radars if they aren’t already.

• Demarre Car..nvm (kidding!)

• An inside look at Houston’s improved defense with Coach Elston Turner is coming tomorrow. A brilliant mind and incredible insight, so be on the lookout.

Prediction

Had Westbrook been healthy, I would have likely picked the Rockets in five games. Without him, I just think this team will struggle at times which allows for variance and weird playoff happenings. The Thunder will compete—they’re a smart team led by the arguably the smartest player ever. Look for this series to have its fair share of tense moments, camera pans to Harden/Paul, D’Antoni mask rip-offs, and jokes from the TNT cast. Overall, I think the Rockets have just enough to get by. Rockets in 7.

 

https://theathletic.com/2001211/202...ng-at-matchups-with-kelly-iko-and-erik-horne/

Spoiler

On Tuesday, the Rockets and Thunder tip off the Western Conference’s No. 4-vs.-No. 5 series. The Athletic’s Rockets beat writer Kelly Iko and Thunder beat writer Erik Horne went headfirst into the matchups that matter in this contrast of styles.

Horne: This was inevitable, wasn’t it?

The basketball gods wouldn’t have it any other way. The Rockets and the Thunder, two franchises that will be eternally connected, get to face off in the first round. It’s the first playoff series for each since the franchise-altering Chris Paul-for-Russell Westbrook trade of last summer and the third series between the teams since the James Harden trade of 2012.

Even within this season, so much has changed for both teams. The Thunder weren’t even picked to make the playoffs. The Rockets scrapped the traditional center and went all-in on small ball. The Thunder and Rockets are stylistically different, yet there is familiarity that should make this one of the most intriguing first-round series in Orlando.

There’s plenty to unpack before these teams actually play, but let’s start here: Kelly, what was your initial reaction when the Rockets-Thunder matchup became official, or when you realized this series had a strong chance of happening.

Iko: It’s just like you said, Erik (congratulations on the new child, by the way!) This is the exclusive work of the basketball gods.

There’s literally no other way you could have scripted it better. When the Rockets traded Westbrook for Paul last July, the narrative surrounding the move was this was Houston’s last real shot at contending in this given set up and Paul would surely seek a move away from Oklahoma City. The Rockets will come into the playoffs believing they should have finished higher than fourth/fifth (they’re right). But on the other hand, what a wonderful season it’s been for Paul and the young Thunder team to be where they are. Kudos to Billy Donovan and the staff.

I must say, the recent news of Westbrook’s strained quad has dampened the mood on the series a tad, only because a healthy Russ in Game 1 would be such a treat in this particular fixture. Still, storylines persist. Harden vs. Paul, D’Antoni vs. time, small ball vs. traditional. I’m putting the over/under on camera pans of Harden and Paul, and mentions of their “fallout” on TNT at seven.

Overall, I’m thrilled we actually get to cover some playoff basketball. I didn’t think we would get to this point, honestly.

Horne: Thank you! My son was born just days after Westbrook’s return to Oklahoma City in January, so that was fun. And I’m excited to see playoff basketball as well after months of uncertainty. The Orlando bubble has been an unquestionable success so far.

The biggest issue with the bubble is it’s been the site of some unfortunate injuries, Westbrook’s being the most concerning for both the Rockets and the Thunder in the first round.

Let’s start with the guards, who will without a doubt decide this series.

Guards

The matchups: Chris Paul, Luguentz Dort and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Danuel House Jr.

Key bench matchup: Dennis Schröder vs. Ben McLemore and Eric Gordon

Horne: We know Westbrook is out for at least the first couple of games of the series. It’ll be interesting to see how long that injury affects his status, or if he even plays in the series at all. We know Harden is showing up.

Harden is the best player in this series, and he’s coming off some strong performances in Orlando. The Thunder had the third-best defense per 100 possessions in Orlando, but Harden is still going to get his points. The challenge for the Thunder is making Harden work for those points, and I’m not sure how they’ll be able to do that if Dort isn’t 100 percent. Dort suffered a right knee sprain in the Thunder’s game against Miami last Wednesday and will essentially be day-to-day entering the playoffs. With the Thunder and Rockets playing every other day starting Tuesday, there’s little time for recovery in between games.

It was a small sample this season, but Dort defended Harden well in their one matchup. NBA.com matchup data had Dort keeping Harden to 2-of-13 from the field. Against the Thunder this season, Harden shot 32.8 percent (22-of-67, 6-of-40 from 3) in three games, and two of those games were without Dort. The Thunder have proven they have a number of defenders they can throw at Harden and have success in a one-off scenario, but slowing down Harden over two weeks is different.

I went back and watched the Harden possessions with a field goal attempt from that Jan. 20 matchup, the only one of the three Thunder-Rockets matchups Dort played in this season. What Dort does better than any Thunder defender is keep Harden in front of him without fouling. Harden is going to get off 3-pointers no matter what, but there are few defenders in the NBA who can consistently disrupt his path to the rim like Dort. If the Thunder doesn’t have a healthy Dort, this series tilts heavily in the Rockets’ favor.

Iko: Although I’ve yet to be sold on Dort’s ability to effectively space the floor, I do love his tenacity. I need to see more tape from him before I label him as a legit Harden disruptor, and while his injury isn’t nearly as important as a Westbrook injury is to Houston’s makeup, it certainly changes how OKC will approach defending Harden.

I do have one problem with looking at regular-season matchups: They’re all so weird for different reasons, but they’re also all we have to go by. For example, I can tell you right off the bat that Harden will have multiple games where he takes 10 or more three-pointers. He’ll probably look to force the issue on most nights, especially without his backcourt partner available. It really goes back to what D’Antoni spoke of earlier: How much do you attribute good defense and bad offense?

That being said, as I mentioned late last week, in games without Westbrook this season, Harden’s usage has shot up to 38.6, whereas with him it hovered around the 35 mark. While Harden is used to occupying a large workload, I do think that games every other day have to change that a bit. This isn’t a normal season where you have at least two days off in between games. Can he handle usage rates close to 40 three times in a week?

You also have to think the Thunder will trap Harden at some point, to offset the loss of Dort’s individual defense. This is where Houston’s other playmakers come to mind — Eric Gordon, Danuel House, Austin Rivers. Can they make enough plays to relieve pressure from Harden? Can they take advantage of four-on-three scenarios and create enough open looks (and hit their own shots)? McLemore has shot well during the restart (51 percent on 7.8 attempts per) and House and Rivers have played well, but my real question is who ends up on Paul? And why has he been so successful at the helm and especially in the clutch?

 

Spoiler

Horne: That is a great question. You know Paul loves to hunt out bigs and get them either in isolation or dropping in coverage so he can get his elbow jumper. But all three of the Thunder-Rockets games this season were played before Houston traded Clint Capela and acquired Robert Covington. It’ll be interesting to see how Paul analyzes this new-look Houston defense when there are presumably no lumbering weak links on defense.

The big plus for the Thunder with Westbrook out is D’Antoni has to go one player deeper into his rotation than he’d likely prefer. Paul will certainly process that information and find the weakness in the Rockets’ defense, whether it’s upping his scoring or finding shots for others.

Paul’s secret to success has been his health. He’s played 70 regular-season games this season, his most since 2016. Another has been the multiple-point-guard system, which has taken usage loads off his shoulders in the first three quarters so he can be fresh for the final five minutes of games. Schröder is the Sixth Man of the Year candidate, and Gilgeous-Alexander has soaked up all Paul’s lessons on game management. The minutes they play without Paul will be vital, especially since Schröder played only two games in the restart and Gilgeous-Alexander was inconsistent leading the team on his own without Paul in Orlando.

Since Capela is gone, there are going to be a lot of different defensive looks from the Rockets. They can switch everything. I think House is the best answer on Paul in late-game situations, but that means Gordon and Harden are going to be on Gilgeous-Alexander and Schröder, and those two can give them trouble, particularly if Donovan uses Gilgeous-Alexander as an off-ball cutting threat or the speedy Schröder can get the ball in isolation. The big answer for the Thunder is to make Harden work hard on defense since he’s going to have so much offensive responsibility, so please believe they’ll try to get Harden caught up on screens or in isolation for Paul to get free.

It doesn’t look like Dort is going to be ready for Game 1, so we’re definitely going to see double teams and plenty of Terrance Ferguson on Harden as well. Ferguson has had a down year, but he’s been solid on Harden’s stepback. The problem is Harden is way stronger than Ferguson, which is where Andre Roberson may come into play.

The Thunder mirrored Roberson’s minutes with Harden’s in the 2017 first-round series. That won’t happen this time, as Roberson is still trying to get back to speed physically after missing 2 1/2 years with a ruptured patellar tendon in his left knee, but Roberson is smart and knows how to defend Harden. It still might not matter. When Roberson was healthy and at his athletic best, Harden still averaged 33 points and 15 free-throw attempts a game in that series. But Roberson is going to get a shot at Harden again. All the Thunder players will. My guess is in closing situations, Schroder and Paul will fight over the “privilege.”

The backcourt matchups are fascinating in part because we are going to see so many different looks. I’ll let you wrap up the guards, but I do have one big question: What do you think the Rockets are expecting to get out of Gordon?

Iko: That’s gotta be the burning question right? Gordon is the guy everyone talked about coming into the season as someone expected to take off, coming off a good playoff showing and new deal. This year was by far his worst, being injured and largely inefficient when he was on the floor.

During the hiatus, I spoke with him, and he told me he had lost weight and was expecting to come back and be the team’s X-factor — people in the organization echoed the same sentiments. An ankle injury in their scrimmage cost him the rest of the restarted season until Wednesday, when he returned against Indiana.

In Houston’s final game against Philly, it looked much more like the old Gordon we’ve come to know. He was able to beat guys like Joel Embiid off the dribble, catch-and-shoot from 25-plus feet, and even did a decent job creating for others. For Gordon, it’s more a confidence, aggression aspect that Houston is looking for rather than the actual percentages. Previously, I thought he’d come off the bench, but seeing how Harden and others were making concerted efforts to get him the ball and running actions with him heavily involved, I’d say he’s starting.

A healthy, good Gordon changes a ton for this team. They expect him to be that second guy for Harden now, able to relieve some pressure by doing everything Harden does, just at a smaller scale. His two-way ability comes into play as well because he’ll split time defending SGA, Paul, and Schröder, as well as pinch-hitting on Gallinari, and even some on Adams.

The only concern I have is are they expecting too much out of him given the way his body has refused to hold up this season. I had thought bringing him off the bench would be beneficial, but it seems like Gordon will play big minutes in this series.

Another big factor to his effectiveness is the lineups D’Antoni trots out alongside Gordon as the game flows. Will he employ another ballhandler like Rivers to aid with playmaking duties? Will he surround him strictly with shooters? Could we see Jeff Green develop some pick-and-roll chemistry a la Harden?

Horne: Gordon is the X-factor. If he’s healthy, he has a chance to be the third-best offensive player in this series after Harden and Paul. That is, unless Westbrook is ready.

Might as well dive into Westbrook before we move on. I’ve gone back and forth all weekend about what his impact will be on this series, and I’ve landed on this: I think the Rockets can win this series without him. That’s not a slight to him but rather a nod to how good Harden is as the fulcrum. Westbrook will 100 percent be needed for a second-round series against either the Lakers or Blazers.

That doesn’t mean the Rockets are better without him. An important note: The Thunder and Rockets never played this season after the Capela trade, which means the Thunder never had to deal with Westbrook at his best with the floor spaced to attack one-on-one. The Thunder’s had one of the best 3-point defenses in the NBA this season, but Westbrook warrants help defense so much that he’d inevitably create open shots for teammates, whether it’s in the half court or in transition. In the first Thunder-Rockets matchup way back in October, Westbrook should have probably had 15 assists, and he finished with nine. He was diming guys up constantly when the help came and the Rockets shot horrendously from 3. So, Westbrook has created a ton of opportunities for 3-pointers against the Thunder this season with Capela. I’d imagine he’d do the same without him and with the floor spaced.

There’s also upside for the Thunder if Westbrook plays. Donovan won’t say it, and I know the Thunder’s 3-point defense has been good this season, but he’d probably rather trade 2-point field goals with Westbrook than 3-pointers with Harden and wide-open corner 3-pointers from Covington and Tucker. The Thunder are one of the best mid-range teams in the league and are among the league’s bottom five teams in terms of 3-point attempts per game. In the second Thunder-Rockets matchup in Oklahoma City, Donovan all but served Gilgeous-Alexander up as a sacrificial lamb on defense, inviting Westbrook to post him up numerous times while never calling for the defense to bring help.

With the way the Thunder like to funnel teams into the mid-range (Thunder opponents had the seventh-most mid-range attempts per game this season), Westbrook is going to get those mid-range looks if he desires because the Thunder have the personnel (Paul, Schröder, Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari) to either draw even or make more of those buckets. Westbrook or not, the Thunder are going to have to deal with Houston bombing away, which will make for wild swings. One night, the Rockets are going to hit 18 3-pointers, the next they’ll hit eight. For all their volume, the Rockets weren’t particularly accurate (34.5 percent, 24th in NBA), but when you shoot 15 more 3-pointers a game than your first-round opponent, the math is going to work out sometimes.

Last part on Westbrook: I understand there are a lot of people interested in the emotional component of these teams playing. Some even think that Westbrook could try to make this into a vendetta series. I don’t see that happening if he plays. This is a different team, a different mindset and a different version of Westbrook. He’s still an “attack guard” and a relentless competitor, but I’d be stunned if he went all Westbrook vs. Ricky Rubio circa 2018 at any point in this series if he plays. The Thunder’s best-case scenario is he starts cranking 3-pointers with no mind for time and situation (which is always a possibility), but I don’t think that’s coming, either, as Westbrook has cut back on the 3-pointers by two a game since joining Houston.

We’ve never seen Westbrook, an emotional player, play games of consequence against the Thunder on a neutral site. Maybe there will be emotions seeing familiar faces, but the Thunder and Rockets are staying in the same hotel, and from what I understand, these guys see each other quite a bit. Without having to go through returning to Oklahoma City and facing the fans, are we sure Westbrook even feels a particular way about playing against the Thunder in Orlando? The bubble will cut back on some of the emotion … or Westbrook could make up a slight for motivation and try to decapitate Paul.

If Westbrook plays, the Thunder should attack him to test that right quadriceps. To protect Westbrook, the Rockets are going to switch everything to keep him from chasing guards and put him on the backside of the defense so he’s not absorbing punishing ball screens. The defense more so than the offense is why I think the Rockets will try to keep Westbrook out of this series.

 

Spoiler

Iko: Good point on Westbrook that you raised, especially defensively. When he first joined the team, he was still nursing that right knee injury and you could tell Houston didn’t want to put him in certain situations that might have stressed it or disrupted his recovery process.

Before I get off this topic, D’Antoni noted Sunday that Gordon will be the primary defender for Paul, although their constant switching and Paul’s propensity for screens change things a bit. During the regular season, House saw the bulk of time defending him. Gordon’s defense has come to the fore in previous years, particularly against Donovan Mitchell, but I wonder how well his ankle will hold up in this series. It’s given him a lot of trouble in the past and is what caused him to miss all but the final two restart games. Paul will surely attempt to make him work on the defensive end with his craftiness.

Anyway, the good thing about this matchup is the abundance of guards, matchups, and potential cross-matchups. But I feel like we’ve touched all aspects about the guards here. I want to ask about the Thunder’s size — the one area Houston has a glaring deficiency. Steven Adams isn’t Joel Embiid, but do you see areas where he can hurt them and not be played off the floor like we’ve seen other big men against this system? Not just Adams, either, but Danillo Gallinari as well. (Can we refer to him as a skilled big?) I feel like there’s a Thunder lineup out there that can potentially go toe-to-toe with what Houston does.

Advantage: Rockets if Westbrook is healthy, Thunder if Westbrook is not healthy.

Frontcourt

The matchups: Danilo Gallinari and Darius Bazley vs. P.J. Tucker and Robert Covington

Key bench matchup: Bazley and Roberson vs. Jeff Green

Horne: The Thunder are going to try to play this thing straight up until they don’t. What that means is Gallinari is going to be out there at power forward alongside a traditional center. I just said guards are going to decide this series, but that’s factoring in Westbrook.

The advantages are obvious here for the Thunder. Gallinari is an elite shooter, the Thunder’s one unquestionably consistent 3-point marksman, and he does it at 6-foot-10. Whether he’s at the 3-point line or in the post, he’ll get his shot off over any Rockets player. He’ll draw fouls on post-ups but has to be careful of the double team or Tucker and Covington having quick hands to poke away steals. He won’t care that the Rockets are switching to close him down quicker at the 3-point line. Gallinari will shoot over any of the Rockets’ 6-foot-7 or under players. If the Rockets try to throw Green on him, Gallinari will drive on him and draw contact. Gallinari is going to get points efficiently either at the 3-point line or the free-throw line, and I don’t see the Rockets having many answers.

What the Rockets are going to have to do is win those non-Gallinari minutes. Of all the Thunder starters, Gallinari is likely to play the fewest minutes just based on how he’s been used this season. The Thunder will stretch his minutes out somewhere into the mid-30s after he played 30 per game in the regular season, but with potentially seven games in 14 days, Gallinari is going to have nights when he looks gassed unless Bazley can take some pressure off of him. Gallinari isn’t the worst defender in isolation, but the Rockets are going to try to get him and Adams on an island as much as possible for Harden.

Tell me about the Rockets’ forwards, Kelly.

Iko: We’ll start with Covington, as he’s been the biggest name we’ve heard this season outside of Westbrook and Harden. Apart from Westbrook, he’s perhaps the biggest reason for the switch to small ball. Although he’s not regarded as a lockdown perimeter threat, he’s what I like to call a defensive jack-of-all-trades. He’s everywhere. His skill set allows others to fill in the gaps defensively and gives their aggressive style more oomph, with his ability to get hands in places they shouldn’t be, cover enough ground in switches and some impressive rim protection. Where he tends to get in trouble and may bail the Thunder out is his propensity for fouls and missed shots (shooting less than 25 percent from 3 since the restart).

House is a hybrid player, and his job is to be that extra playmaker on the floor, provide athleticism and hit his outside shots. He’s played tremendously since the restart and will be counted on in this series. During their regular-season matchup, he spent the most time of anyone guarding Paul (7:36) and did a decent job. With guys like Tucker and Green, it’s all about making the Thunder’s strategy pay, right? They’ll concede a ton of open 3s, which Tucker and Green have to hit at a consistent enough rate to keep the Thunder honest. Tucker will have the unique job of using his pressure and strength to front Adams and Nerlens Noel in the post as well as disrupt whoever’s in front of him on the perimeter. It’s a tough ask for someone of his age and the number of nicks and bruises he’s picked up, but he’s their heart and soul for a reason.

Green’s case is interesting given the places he’s stopped during his lengthy career. He’s always seemed to fall out of place, but in Houston he’s had a bit of a revival. They ask him to be a rim-runner, but he’s so much more than that. Green has the ability to make tough passes out of those rolls, be a release valve for Harden when he’s trapped, make plays for himself and finish around the rim, and also be reliable from the outside. He’s been a hell of a late-season pickup for D’Antoni and the team. Look for him to play a huge role in this series, especially without Westbrook to break those Harden traps.

Horne: I wonder if the Thunder can push the pace a little more than usual against the Rockets.

With Paul, the Thunder were one of the slowest teams in the league in possessions per 48 minutes, but the Rockets are giving up 15.1 points per game on the fast break (27th in the NBA), and despite their strong defense in the bubble, they had some moments on transition defense (see also, vs. Dallas) where I was appalled by their effort. I wouldn’t be opposed to Bazley getting defensive rebounds and leading the break every now and then, or SGA or Paul throwing hit ahead passes to see if they can get the Rockets defense imbalanced and scrambling to cover. Also, the Rockets’ ability to turn teams over in the half court is terrifying, and the Thunder’s rotation players were uncharacteristically sloppy, Paul included, with the ball in the restart.

The Rockets looked good defensively in the bubble, but if Covington or Tucker gets in foul trouble, those will be depth issues they cannot overcome.

Speaking of Bazley, he came on strong for the Thunder in the restart. He was already going to be the backup for Gallinari, but I think with his versatility he may steal some minutes from Noel. The one thing that worries me about Bazley and Roberson is that much of their best minutes during the restart came against second units. They aren’t going to have eight to 13 minutes to beat up on reserves when D’Antoni plays seven guys. Bazley is going to have to battle stout veterans like Tucker and Covington, and that’s different. But Bazley also has the advantage of his first playoff series coming on a neutral court, so he won’t have to deal with road nerves. The minutes Bazley spends between forward and center will be fascinating, and I’m curious to see how he holds up after Harden undoubtedly tries to lure him into cheap fouls on consecutive possessions at some point.

Bazley is a perfect segue into the centers. I labeled this section “frontcourt” for a reason. Do they even exist in this series for the Rockets? Will D’Antoni dust off Tyson Chandler?

The big two-part question is how are the Rockets going to handle Adams and how is Adams going to handle the Rockets? I’m a Noel fan for his length, shot-blocking and ability to defend on the perimeter on a switch, but I’m just not sure how much he is going to play in this series because he’s a foul machine, and putting the Rockets in the bonus early is a death wish because of Harden.

Iko: They’ll have to rely on Harden, Tucker, and Covington for the most part on Adams. Harden’s penchant for post defense, Tucker’s grit and constant jostling for position and Covington’s overall awareness and timing.

I’m with you on Noel’s overall minutes in this series because there’s also the possibility of those bigs sitting for some period if Houston is constantly exploiting those mismatches. I think where the Thunder can really punish Houston isn’t on the glass, per se, but second-chance opportunities. Surrender too many offensive rebounds and you run the risk of giving the Thunder easy putbacks, and you’d be surprised how quickly those pile up in the course of a game. Also, I must say I love the simple swagger that Adams plays with when it comes to rebounding and just his overall movement below. I don’t think his intelligence gets much credit.

I don’t think we’ll see any Chandler, though. It’d be a cold day in you know what before that happens!

 

Spoiler

Horne: Adams is going to eat on the offensive glass, but he’s just as important on the defensive glass. The Thunder weren’t a great rebounding team this season, but Adams will have to occupy bodies so the guards can chase down long rebounds off 3-point attempts. Donovan sounds like he’s going to ride with Adams, so the 7-footer has to make Houston pay. That also means hitting free throws.

Advantage: Thunder

Coaching

Horne: The battle of the two coaches in the last year of their contracts! I like how D’Antoni has managed the Westbrook-Harden dynamic. This is a big opportunity for Donovan to earn some more respect after being named Co-Coach of the Year by the coaches.

We know what D’Antoni’s system is, so if it works will be determined by the 3s falling or not. But can Donovan cook up enough advantages against Houston’s switching defense? I presume they will be able to defend the Thunder’s three guards pretty well in the half court. And can the Thunder make Harden work for his points? Donovan can’t give foul-prone players too much leash.

Iko: The intricacies of this matchup will come down to how both coaches operate in the trenches. By that, I mean the periods when the starters are sitting on the bench. D’Antoni likes to rotate a number of “three-and-D” options on the floor as well as playmakers. How long can he manage lineups that aren’t great defensively in order to give key players rest?

Where the Rockets will win or lose these games will come in the non-Harden minutes. Because of Westbrook’s absence, Houston doesn’t have the luxury of staggering his two best players. Now you’re relying on people like Gordon and Rivers to step up in terms of keeping an offensive rhythm. Have we seen enough from Gordon and/or Rivers? I tend to lean toward no, although it was good to see Rivers explode for 41 and Gordon show some signs of positivity toward the end of the restart.

Another huge aspect to watch is how D’Antoni manages the foul aspect. Tucker, Harden, Covington, and McLemore have seen themselves sitting longer than normal due to the number of fouls they accumulate. Does he trust his gut and roll with Covington if he has three fouls early in the second quarter?

Horne: The non-Paul minutes will be massive for the Thunder. Gilgeous-Alexander needs to be sharp, and I think he’ll be better than he was in the restart without Paul because Donovan will be able to put Schröder next to him.

I’m terrified of Donovan trusting guys longer than he should in a playoff setting. Donovan is big on keeping players engaged, which means playing 10- and 11-man rotations. The problem with that philosophy is there aren’t enough minutes to waste on a two- to three-minute spell of silly fouls and bad, disjointed offense in the playoffs. As good of an athlete as Hamidou Diallo is and as reliable as Abdel Nader has been on offense this season, are we sure they can be counted on to keep the game from going off the rails in limited minutes?

But at least this season, some of Donovan’s reliance on rotation is justified because he had to keep Paul, Gallinari and Adams fresh. Donovan can’t play them 40-plus minutes for two weeks and expect them to be of any quality. Donovan wouldn’t do that anyway, which is why the Thunder’s minutes without them on the floor will be crucial.

Advantage: Rockets

Predictions

Horne: It’s really interesting how these two teams came to identical records with such different styles. At least for this season, the Paul-Westbrook trade was mutually beneficial. The bubble results shouldn’t reflect on what we’re about to see, but Harden has looked fresh, and I tend to lean toward the team with the best player in a series if all things are even. The Rockets and Thunder are about as even as it’ll get for a first-round matchup in the West. If Westbrook and Dort are out and this is a half-court game, I’ll give Harden’s offense the edge over Paul’s. Rockets in 6

Iko: These two teams are going to serve up the most exciting first-round matchup in quite some time. I think Westbrook’s injury makes this series longer than I had initially expected, and I also think things will get rough for Houston for a while. With that being said, I just don’t see the Thunder being able to outscore the Rockets consistently over seven games. Of course, everything we’ve discussed could become null and void given the wackiness of playoff basketball, but that’s why we play the games. Rockets in 7.