If the Rockets go with 2 defenders in the draft that means Jalen will have to go for nearly 30 a game and Scooter will have to be close behind. Sengun would also have to average near a triple double to make it all work. It would be a cool experiment.
That's why we need at least one really good two way player with length, quickness and height/ strength. The 17th pick player can be a defensive specialist. Kessler is a pretty good choice.
We can go with 2 defenders that are going to be positives on offense also. Any grouping of Chet/Jabari/Ivey/Sochan/Eason/Kessler/Williams helps a lot.
But think about it. After that, we'll actually know where we'll be picking and then we can start talking about who we're going to draft!!! YAAAAY!
In fairness, Chet has to show he can hit from NBA range, avoid foul trouble, and build stamina to match Wood's numbers. Rookies seem to get hazed by the refs on foul calls, particularly bigs. So I'd expect more of a 10/5 output from Chet starting out.
If Chet gets same minutes as Jalen Green then Chet should double that output. And he will even do it as 3rd option. Averaging 10/5 his rook season would be a disappointment imo. 14/7 should be the min bar imo.
My concerns are not skill related, but stamina related. Even projecting 30mpg as a rookie, I'm doubtful he would be a 20/10 guy. Something like 12/6/3 seems more likely. Won't guys be relentless on creating contact to draw fouls on him? Rookie bigs seem to have trouble staying on the court long enough to get to 20/10 type numbers.
That is a good concern. He does not have Mobley's ability to defend WITHOUT drawing fouls. But he should be better than Sengun in this area.
No doubt, hopefully the refs are fair in regards to the principle of verticality as it pertains to Chet. By year two or three I could see him being a 20/10 guy. I noticed he would normally get pulled after the first TV timeout, I don't know if that was a stamina issue or just a way to stagger him and Timme. Do you see Silas playing him more than 20-25 mpg starting out?
Might be similar to Jalen Green. Whomever we get Chet or the other two, if they are a high pick, I think Silas is almost forced to not only play that person 20+ min per game, but start that person. Unless they just absolutely can't stay on the floor (or can only be a SG). Not starting a top 5 pick borderlines a head coach disrespecting his GM. Our team record is at rock bottom; there's nothing to lose. A head coach could start any of the young picks in the name of development.
Curious what you expect out of Banchero & Jabari early on .... Reason I ask is that advanced metrics point to Chet being significantly more productive and more efficient while having the lowest usage of any player in the top 10 and it's really not even close statistically.
Pretty similar, probably a little more robust numbers early on for Banchero in particular. Due to his higher usage on offense and stronger physique allowing him to avoid foul trouble.
Fair enough .... at least you won't be let down. I expect better numbers than that out of any of the three .... I guess a lot depends upon where they land but any of them on the Rockets I'd expect 16/8 assuming they are getting 30mpg.
That would be a good expectation for an average post all star break, but I wouldn’t expect anyone to average that for the season as a rookie. Jalen’s rough start this year is more the norm than the exception, I’d expect any rookie to have growing pains adjusting to the massive jump in competition.
Chet could struggle year one. Fouls, conditioning, physicality. Who cares what he averages as a rookie? The same people that were writing off Jalen 20 games in! A year 2 Chet is going to average 17/11/3bl/3 or 4 ast and be a top 10 defender. We need that.
