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Rockets sign Fred VanVleet (3 years, $130M)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by J.R., Jun 30, 2023.

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Do you like the signing of Fred VanVleet?

Poll closed Oct 9, 2023.
  1. YES

    62.9%
  2. NO

    37.1%
  1. backwardhead

    backwardhead Member

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    I think this is terrible. Sorry I watched it. I could give so many specific reasons, primary being that you can cherry pick specific behaviors of anyone in the public eye like this and make them look like crap, but I just don't care enough about the goal ApacheWarrior is trying to achieve. I'm not anti AW, just anti-these kinds of videos.
     
  2. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    https://theathletic.com/4590137/202...ving-james-harden/?source=user_shared_article

    Here is another data point, Hollinger’s $BORD projected contract value based on how much a player contributes to wins, he has Vanvleet as the third best FA available, behind only Kyrie and Harden, who are worth $50m and $47m:


    ________

    3. Fred VanVleet, PG, 29, Toronto (player option): $46,873,792
    I sometimes wonder why there is such intense focus on Irving and the Lakers when VanVleet is nearly as good and vastly more reliable. This BORD$ valuation is slightly bloated by Nick Nurse’s insistence on playing his starters 47.9 minutes per game, resulting in VanVleet’s minutes estimate being unrealistically high for what he’s likely to face next season — whether under a new coach in Toronto or as a free agent.

    The other twist here is that VanVleet only has seven years of experience, which means his max is “just” $40.2 million — a relative bargain, at least in the first year of a multi-year deal. A good deal structure for him would be three years with a fourth-year player option, which lets him cash in on a 10-year veteran max for 35 percent of the cap if he’s still playing at a high level in 2026. VanVleet certainly will opt out of his final year at $22.8 million and has no incentive to sign an extension yet because even the revised extension rules in the new CBA won’t net him nearly enough.

    _________

    …so yes, this means $130m/3 years is actually a value contract compared to his expected production. It is still an “overpay” just because no one on the market was willing to give him that, and we had to pay up to pry him from Toronto. But in terms of value it is actually just fine. In terms of contribution to wins, which is how we should value players, he is on par with Harden and Kyrie, which you won’t find many who would argue they are outside the top 20.
     
    #1102 CXbby, Jul 23, 2023
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2023
  3. backwardhead

    backwardhead Member

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    I just listened to the latest Locked on Rockets podcast and loved it. We could have gone with Harden, safe bet for immediate relevancy, but investing so much in FVV is an investment in Ime and our lottery picks. I'd so much rather invest in Ime then the safe bet with Harden and the kids. I love Harden. Don't get me wrong. I even had a "Three the Harden Way" t-shirt with a fluffy little bear on the t-shirt. Favorite shirt of all time. Strip clubs and everything, I was a Harden guy, but as a Rockets fan I'm all in with Ime. This means I'm with FVV.
     
  4. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    @backwardhead

    Many of the fans insulate themselves with just the over the top
    fluff pieces like, Locked on Rockets, Chop Shop, and others.

    I'm not paid to paint the Rockets in a favorable light.

    Even though I'm a pure Rockets fan through and through,
    I'm not going to distort things and sugar coat stuff to
    fluff up the Rockets organization.

    I call it like I see it. If you just want to listen to the
    positive takes and block out the negative takes then
    you are just a mindless robot lemming.

    Not open minded like me. I listen to all sides and then
    cast my judgements accordingly.
     
  5. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    So open minded he has nothing left in there.
     
  6. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    @backwardhead

    I was thinking about running this as a thread but CF's is not about
    stat driven threads. They tend to get about 8 replies.
    ----------------------

    I asked someone last week find me a team with two
    starters shooting about 39%......and i'll show you a team
    that is not successful. Crickets....crickets.

    So here are the top lineups with the most minutes for the season
    of each team. 22/23 player FG% (basketball-reference.com)

    Bos: Tatum 46.6%..Jaylen B 49.1%...Smart 41.5%....
    Horford 47.5%...D White 46.2%
    BRK: Dinwiddie 40.4%...Claxton 70.5%...Cam Johnson 46.8%...
    Finney-Smith
    35.1%...Bridges 47.5%
    Knicks: Brunson 49.1%...Barrett 43.4%...Randle 45.9%...
    Grimes 46.8%...M Robinson 67.1%
    Raps: Siakim 48.0%...OG 47.6%..Scottie B 45.6%...
    Trent 43.3%...
    VanVleet 39.3%
    Cavs: Okoro 49.4%...Donovan 48.4%....Garland 46.2%...
    Mobley 55.4%...Allen 64.4%
    Wiz: Avidija 43.7%...Porzingis 49.8%...
    Monte Morris 48.0%...
    Kuzma 44.8%....Beal 50.6%
    76ers: Harden 44.1%...Melton 42.5%...Embiid 54.8%...
    Tobias 50.1%....PJ Tucker 42.7%
    Magic: Paolo 42.7%...Wendell C 52.5%...Harris 45.0%...
    Wagner 48.5%....Fultz 51.4%
    Bucks: Jrue 47.9%...Lopez 53.1%...Giannis 55.3%...
    Connaughton
    39.2%....Grayson Allen 44.0%
    Hawks: DeJounte 46.4%...Hunter 46.1%...Capela 65.3%...
    Trae 42.9%...John Collins 50.8%
    Pacers: Turner 54.8%...Hield 45.8%...Nembhard 44.1%...
    Haliburton 49.0%....Nesmith 42.7%
    Bulls: DeRosan 50.4%...Vucevic 52.0%...LaVine 48.5%...
    Dosunmu 49.3%...Patrick Williams 46.4%
    Hornets: Rozier
    41.5%...Hayward 47.5%...PJ Washington 44.4%...
    LaMelo Ball
    41.1%...Plumlee 66.9%
    Detroit: Duren 64.8%...Stewart 44.2%...Bogdanovic 46.8%...
    Ivey
    41.6%...Killen H 37.7%
    Heat: Herro 43.9%...Butler 53.9%...Bam 54.0%...
    Martin 46.4%...Lowry
    40.4%
    Memphis: Ja 46.6%...Adams 59.7%....JJJ 50.6%...
    Konchar 43.1%....
    Dillon Brooks 39.6%
    Denv: Jokic 63.2%...Gordon 56.4%....Murray 45.4%...
    MPj 48.7%...KCP 46.2%
    Mavs: Doncic 49.6%...Dinwiddie 45.5%..Bullock
    40.9%...
    Hardaway
    40.1%...C Wood 51.5%
    Minn: KAT 49.5%...Gobert 65.9%...Edwards 45.9%...
    McDaniels 57.7%....DeAngelo R 46.5%
    NOP: McCollum 43.7%...Ingram 48.4%...Valanciunas 54.7%...
    Murphy 48.4%...Herb Jones 46.9%
    GSW: Curry 49.3%...Looney 63.0%...Klay 43.6%...
    Draymond 52.7%....Wiggins 47.3%
    OKC: SGA 51.0%...Giddey 48.2%...J Williams 52.1%...
    J Williams 43.6%...Dort
    38.8%
    Clips: Zubac 63.4%...Kawhi 51.2%...PG 45.7%..
    M Morris 42.6%....Reggie Jackson
    41.8%...
    Blazers: Grant 47.5%..Lillard 46.3%...Simons 44.7%...
    Nurkic 51.9%...Hart 50.4%
    Kings: Fox 51.2%...Barnes 47.3%...Huerta 48.5%...
    Keegan 45.3%...Sabonis 61.5%
    Spurs: Keldon 45.2%...Vaseli 43.9%...Sochan 45.3%...
    Tre Jones 45.9%...Poeltl 61.6%
    Utah: Markkanen 49.9%...Olynyk 49.9%...Vanderbilt 55.6%...
    Clarkson 44.4%...Conley
    40.8%
    Houston (22/23): KPj 44.2%...Green 41.6%...Sengun 55.3%...
    Jabari 40.8%....Kenyon 55.6%
    __________

    Houston (now):
    VanVleet 39.3%...Green 41.6%...Sengun 55.3%...
    Dillon Brooks 39.6%...Jabari 40.8%

    ____________

    Rockets may be one of the all time worst scoring teams.
    [ grant it I did not look up beyond last year ]

    But I'm guessing this is why publications are hinting at KPj
    starting over Jalen Green. Front office doesn't want to
    admit Screwing the Pooch; but benching the $43M VanVleet
    or $20M Dillon Brooks is not an option. Instead let's just shuffle
    the deck of cards.....cards that aren't named VanVleet/Dillon.

    Jabari was shooting in Summer League like I expected him
    to shoot last year. That will help if he can in 23/24.

    VanVleet and Brooks
    poor shooting goes back 4 years or more.


     
    #1106 ApacheWarrior, Jul 23, 2023
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2023
    fryjol7 and peleincubus like this.
  7. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    I always enjoy reading yours posts. Just an fyi for people that have this message board set as dark you can really read this too well at all.
     
    ApacheWarrior likes this.
  8. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Likewise pele

    I don't feel I miss on many things....Denver would not win the championship
    was my worst moment recently. But it took about 23 years for a true big man
    to win it.

    The other two things, is saying the Rockets wouldn't/shouldn't tank the
    past two seasons in conversations with you. I believe they did tank.

    You may be my kryptonite, yep,....i'm starting to think that.
     
  9. astrosrule

    astrosrule Member

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    All the noise aside, it will be nice to have an actual good basketball player on the team, a legit starter. If it wasn’t for the brooks disaster it would have been a great offseason. FVV is an A, getting cam and amen in the draft was also great.
     
    Mathloom likes this.
  10. backwardhead

    backwardhead Member

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    @ApacheWarrior
    I really appreciate the work you put into this response. This is the kind of criticism I find thought provoking and well reasoned. The video that I took exception to I just don't.

    Honestly, I'm worried about our future with this squad because of the lack of shooting %. But my hope is built on the belief that FVV and Brooks have been added to unlock the potential of our young lottery picks. I don't have any illusions about FVV or Brooks shooting %. I do however believe that Jalen, Jabari, Amen, and Tari can all improve theirs over the next few years. If 2 or 3 of them are able to do that, and Ime can find the system that amplifies their strengths, along with Sengun, then I believe FVV is the type of player who can run the system Ime installs.

    This season may be about learning who learns to shoot better within Ime's system and those who don't get traded for those who can (and maybe have less potential upside).

    I'm a hopeless optimist when it comes to my Rockets though and will err on the side of hope until it's clear Ime can't do the job. I was going to say "Ime and Stone" but at this point it seems clear to me that Stone's job is in Ime's hands.
     
    ApacheWarrior and charlieaustin like this.
  11. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!
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    Exactly what I have been saying, you can't shoot 39% and say you are a good shooter, and we need guys that are at least LEAGUE average shooters....if not results will be consistent with the last few years.

    DD
     
  12. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Fvv shoots 37% from 3 on 9 attempts a game the last 3 years, 40% of those attempts were unassisted/self created. He is a 40% 3 point shooter on open assisted 3s. He is a 42% 3 point shooter from the corner for his career.

    Fred vanvleet isn’t a great finisher due to his size but is actually a great shooter especially when he is playing off ball (Amen) and can just focus on catch and shoot.
     
    backwardhead likes this.
  13. mfastx

    mfastx Member
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    FVV is a good shooter, all you have to do is look at his 3pt percentage to see that.

    However he is not an efficient scorer in general. I'd be happy if he basically only shot 3s which would skyrocket his efficiency.
     
    roslolian likes this.
  14. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    I understand the "shooting" concerns but remember the Rockets were tanking the last 3 yrs. When you are tanking you don't do the things that result in scoring the ball efficiently otherwise you aren't tanking anymore.

    I will wait till the first 5 games before I worry about the shooting because tbh all these concerns are premature. Outside of Dillon Brooks the other members seem like passable scorers to me.
     
  15. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!
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    If you can't score the ball in the NBA at better than 40% you aren't a good shooter.......for the NBA....oh sure you may be able to knock em down at your local park but 39% is ASS for a starting PG.

    It is Rafer Alston level ass.

    DD
     
  16. astrosrule

    astrosrule Member

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    Do you think FVV is a good player? Better then kpj? Or about equal?
     
  17. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    He has not even played a single NBA game for another NBA team outside of Toronto, Canada.

    He is 29, right in his prime or about to be past his prime.

    No idea how he will be playing. The Raptors at least had some continuity in their retool.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    32 minutes per game as a guess.

    16-18 ppg and 5-6 ast ----- average Win Share at 5-6

    You could guess about his efficiency. KPJ will average fewer minutes.....

    If everyone is healthy, I do not see Jeff Green and Aaron Holiday getting much playing time.
     
    #1117 daywalker02, Jul 24, 2023
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2023
    astrosrule likes this.
  18. ElPigto

    ElPigto Member
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    DD is a huge KPJ fan. I'm pretty sure his bias will really shine when he answers you.
     
  19. astrosrule

    astrosrule Member

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    Hey man, we gotta help those who don’t understand, or at least try our best
     
  20. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Years ago DD was a huge Aaron Brooks fan when some of us argued Kyle Lowry should be the starter instead. Kyle Lowry is now a champion, 6 time allstar, and legend for the Raptors franchise. Meanwhile most of you don’t know who Aaron Brooks is. Same deal here with Fred Vanvleet, who plays a similar game as Lowry. 20 years later and you still can’t teach some people how to understand basketball. You can bring the horse to water but you can’t force it to drink.
     
    #1120 CXbby, Jul 24, 2023
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2023
    OremLK likes this.

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