I think a couple of under the radar players will surprise folks this year, much like how Delfino did last season. Reclamation project #1 Speaking of Delfino, Omri Casspi has an opportunity to play major minutes in the vacancy that Delfino left behind. Indeed, during media day, McHale was asked what the team's biggest issues were currently. What first came to his mind was not the PF dilemma nor how to fit Asik with Howard. It was how to replace Delfino's 30 minutes a game as the 6th man/shooter/smallball PF. A role that was crucial last year and part of the team's most effective 5 man units. Casspi can be the answer to that question, and in fact his game is remarkably similar to Delfino's. A look at their career %s from the field, from 3, and overall TS% and it is nearly identical. Delfino is a career inefficient scorer yet he was highly effective in our offense because he was always a threat. He made you pay when left open, and even when guarded sometimes he would gun it. For that he deserves his reputation as a "chucker" because he does not have a conscience when it comes to shooting. Again, this may hurt his efficiency, but it was effective because he was a threat at all times and created tremendous spacing, unlike someone who only takes open shots and does not strike fear in the opponent. This is why efficiency is nice, but not the be all end all. Casspi is much the same way. Criticism from many observers are that he takes bad shots, and his overall efficiency is poor. This won't matter on this team as long as he makes his open shots and is always a threat to bomb away. The room that this creates for everyone else will make up for his own inefficiencies. Still, with that said, expect a career high in TS% out of him, much like Delfino's career high last year. Casspi posted RAPM numbers of -0.6 and -0.5 his rookie and sophomore years at Sacramento. Terrific numbers for a young player. By comparison, Chandler Parsons' the last two years were -0.7 and -0.1, and he is seen as a budding allstar around here. Omri just turned 25 and is only a few months older than Parsons. There is absolutely zero reason why he cannot turn his career around and become an effective role player on this team. Reclamation project #2 Ronnie Brewer is someone who is overlooked right now, but I think will eventually become a big part of the bench. His RAPM the past 3 years have been: +0.7, +1.0, and -1.2 last year. Last year was his worst year in terms of minutes and production since he was a rookie. This was because he was recovering from the same injury and surgery that Jeremy Lin was going through: a meniscus tear. And as we witnessed first hand, Jeremy's production, as well as his general movement suffered markedly in the first half of the year. And that was with months more to recover compared with Brewer, who had surgery in September right before training camp. At 28 years old, there is no reason to believe he cannot recover from this much like how Jeremy did. And if he can replicate his effectiveness on the Bulls, he will play a major role on this team. To put into perspective, his +0.7 and +1.0 RAPM on the Bulls would have placed him 3rd on last year's Rockets squad. His +2.4 RAPM on the defensive end merely one year ago ranked him amongst the best wing stoppers in the entire league: Andre Iguodala +3.3 Paul George +3.1 Gerald Wallace +3.2 Tony Allen +3.5 Josh Smith +3.3 Kevin Durant +2.3 Thabo Sefolosha +2.0 Ricky Rubio +2.0 Andrei Kirilenko +2.0 This is a role that the Rockets desperately need, especially playing alongside James Harden. And while Chandler Parsons performed admirably as a defender his rookie year, and hopefully he can reclaim some of that this year, he was never at the level of a stopper that Brewer was. Three predictions: 1. Ronnie Brewer will overtake Francisco Garcia in the rotation. 2. By season's end, the question of who is the better player between Chandler Parsons and Omri Casspi will be a legitimate debate, as opposed to the farce that it is viewed as today. 3. Marcus Morris will triumphantly rise as the franchise player of the Phoenix Suns. Okay, just kidding. Only two predictions.
While I agree with your post, i really dont agree with your predictions... not the first two anyways lol seem far fetched... now the third one.... weeeelll cant argue with that lol:grin:
I really hope Brewer is healthy this year. Beverly Brewer Parsons Howard Asik That would be a fun all defense line up to watch.
I think Brewer could take Garcia's minutes simply because I don't think Garcia is as good as his reputation on CF. He had a great playoff series, but I don't think he can maintain that level of play for an entire season. As for Casspi, I think he's just not very good. I think the idea that he will be better than Parsons will always be ridiculous.
Brewer's impact on this team is highly dependent on his ability to shoot the 3. Otherwise he'd be only a situational defensive substitution. Even at Chicago, he was horrible jump shooter. Both with long 2s and 3s. Not even his corner 3% is good at only 30%. Wing defense is a bit less important when your center is always Howard or Asik. I think McHale will more likely put in a shooter unless we're getting destroyed by a particular matchup. But if Brewer somehow buys into the Rockets philosophy of 3s, 3s, and moar 3s, and basically only shoot corner 3s or dunks, he certainly has a place in this system.
Garcia suffers from the reverse-Jeremy-Lin-syndrome. As in, ineffective all year long, but has a decent playoff series, therefore everyone goes gaga over him. Another case of how shortsighted fans are. Are we forgetting that the same guy played his way out of the rotation after being traded here? He was only given minutes afterwards when Parsons was injured. He was not even in the rotation to start the playoffs, playing only 6 minutes in game 2. Once again, he only made the rotation due to Jeremy Lin getting hurt, another injury. For his time here in totality, even though he made his 3s, his general impact was ineffective. And at 31 years old, his career arc is only headed south. He did play a good 4 games for us. The fact that it was the last 4 games of the season is why it is etched into fans' memory. I don't necessarily think Casspi will be better, just that the gap in perception will not be as wide as it is currently. Parsons' is clearly on the upswing, so he still has every opportunity to improve.
if harden is true to his word in saying he wants to guard the oppositions best player then brewer becomes really expendable and i would rather a cov make the team. however, its way more likely that Harden doesnt take the huge jump this year on the defensive end so getting brewer to stick around for assurance or spot minutes at the start of the season may be the way to go.
To summarize the observation and prediction in one sentance: RAPM rules ( to certain extent I don't disagree).
Also no mention of Reggie Williams. If he makes the final cut, I could see him really being a key role player coming off the bench in the Delfino role. He really fell off the map last year in a wierd season in Charlotte, but just the year before looked like a really promising young player. He's actually a pretty well rounded scorer who can hurt teams in alot of different lineups. Defense will be where he's got to prove himself to the coaching staff to earn rotation minutes over Brewer, but I could see Williams having a major impact on this team this year..... Again... IF he makes the cut.
I was gonna praise the excellent post until that little bit at the end about Casspi becoming Parsons equal. I am a fan of using metrics, but you can't be a slave to them, sometimes you have to use common sense. Parsons is clearly a much better player than Casspi ever will be. Delfino 2.0 is best case scenario for him.
There is pretty much zero chance that Brewer is going to improve markedly from 3 at this point of his career. Even still, I see him carving out a role on this team, just because of his general positive impact on winning, when healthy. Having Howard/Asik is a luxury, but a wing stopper can still be helpful. The Bulls had Noah/Asik to guard the paint. They brought elite defenders who were limited offensively in Asik and Gibson off the bench, yet still played Brewer alongside them with success. I agree that Brewer won't fit well with Howard on the court when we are running the offense through the post. They will have to most likely play those two separately. When Howard goes to the bench and we are relying on Harden to generate offense, Brewer would be a great fit to stick on the opponents best scorer and allow Harden to go to work. Beverley Harden Brewer Parsons or Casspi Asik That lineup puts 2 shooters and 2 stoppers alongside Harden. In fact, the Beverley/Brewer/Casspi/Asik quartet is almost a mirror image of the revered Bulls "bench mob" of Watson/Brewer/Korver/Asik, and we are missing Gibson of course. And they had tremendous success playing alongside a dominant perimeter scorer in Rose.
I really like Brewer. I always thought that he was an effective player despite offensive shortcomings. I would prefer to start Brewer at the 3 and slide Parsons to the 4 at this point. Parsons has help from D12 inside and Brewer can guard the lead perimeter player on the defensive end. You want Harden to be able to guard the other teams #1 on occasion. I don't think that should be our defensive philosophy.
I think you'll see a situational lineup that includes Beverley and Brewer along with some shooters/runners. Perhaps Parsons at the 4. Beverley & Brewer are spark plugs on defense, they create turnovers. Imagine being down by 12 with 5 minutes to go in the 3rd... team is playing like crap... let those 2 go in and come up with some steals.
Garcia played for Sacramento who is on a youth movement, so the rotation thing is almost irrelevant. Garcia career numbers show that he is a better 3 point shooter than Delfino. Hopefully, the lockout season was just an aberration because of the lockout, and continues to produce near career level which is 44 and 36 percent from the field. I am bullish on Garcia.
reclamation project? that's just cold blooded. that's colder than calling them assets. how about...comeback players? I think either casspi or garcia along with demo are going to be the leading scorers coming from the bench. total points per game 110 (all your rebounds belong to us) total points allowed 95* *not a homer, just telling it how it is.
Ah, almost thanks for the almost praise. Again, I don't expect many to agree with the Casspi bit. Wouldn't be worth much of a prediction otherwise. Question, if Casspi's ceiling is Delfino 2.0, how would you compare Delfino with Parsons last year? Pre-allstar break, before Delfino fell off with the elbow injury, by my own eye test and by many metrics, Delfino was the better player. The number of crucial 3s he hit to either break a game open or bring us back were countless. The season opener against Detroit, everyone remembers Harden's 37, but we were actually down in the 4th quarter before Delfino all of a sudden started raining 3s. And that was just the first of many times he bailed us out. Parsons was solid all year long. Delfino was a difference-maker.(til he got injured)
Casspi has never shown he's a winner unlike Delfino. If he doesn't show something this season, he will be out of the NBA. I honestly think he won't make out of training camp if Covington shows he belongs in the NBA.
I was talking about the Rockets rotation, not Sacramento. McHale tried him out for a few games when he was first traded here, and eventually shelved him. Even though at this time Delfino was visibly struggling and trying to play through his injury, McHale still didn't go to Garcia, which is telling. Garcia only got minutes once Parsons went down.
Delfino was really good, but I would say Delfino's fall off had more to do with water finding it's level than the elbow injury. He was a streaky shooter who could occasionally win games, but who offered virtually nothing else outside of shooting. I see Casspi in very much the same light, they have value certainly, but only to a point. Parsons has consistently shown improvement, and has not only proven to be a better shooter, but also a better shot creator for himself and others. His defense certainly fell off last year, but he has shown an extremely high potential already defensively. If he can bring his rookie defensive intensity, with his sophmore offensive efficiency, we're talking all-star.
