Sorry aout that. I wan't trying to derail this excellent post, just trying to get a guage of your value on Swift. I see Boozer as dramatically better than Swift. We just have a difference of opinion on value.
Agreed. Very enjoyable reading. I am obviously in the pro Battier trade camp mostly due to the fact that I have always valued hardworking guys who value their oportunity in the league. Reading Van Gundiers posts just cement my feelings and show that statistics can be used to prove that these guys are worth more than their salary in a lot of cases. I do think that we should have gotten another pick but I think that not getting one only means that we made a decent trade not a great one in terms of value. It won't change that fact that I think we made a great trade in terms of positive effects one our team.
Here are the rankings for the players for the 2003 and 2004 seasons, using Dan Rosenbaum's adjusted +/- technique: http://www.uncg.edu/bae/people/rosenbaum/NBA/wv2t5.txt methodology His current ratings aren't public, because he's working for the Cleveland Caveliers now.
i dont necessarlily disagree with the trade BUT my big question is WHAT WERE ARE OTHER OPTIONS? it seems to me like there were alot of teams looking to trade down and we could have found a better deal than just Battier. without knowing that, its hard for us to really agree or disagree..
ANd Richie Frahm is better than Ben Wallace. Definitely a flaw in the system. Although the rest look pretty close with the exception of KG, he always puts up great fantasy numbers but until Sam I am was on that team they were just average and now that Sam is gone they are average again.
Very interesting, durvasa... Even back in Battier's 2nd and 3rd seson, he was ranked 26th overall-- and young players are notorius for having low +/- numbers even when their fantasy stats looked good. His raw/unadjusted +/- has only gotten better since then, I'm guessing his adjusted numbers would have improved as well. ********************************************** Now perhaps to take the focus away from strictly the Battier trade, and back to the the original topic or "moneyball moves" for Rockets in general. I think these evaluations have influenced moves made already and will continue to happen and it's probably a good thing considering that some of the Post-Championship-years moves have really not worked out. The additon of aging stars-- Barkley, Pippen-- worked out OK to a degree, they made their runs, but but lack of health and depth held those teams back. Then came the Post-Hakeem years of Cato and Mo Taylor contracts. I'll be happy if the team never overpays for guys like these again. One Rockets target who looks good under "moneyball" evaluation (or at least based on the amateur 82games.com type-stats available to the general public) is Mike James. He'll only make the MLE, and his level of play is worth much more. Not only did he have a positive effect on team results (+/-) and the play of his teammates (player pair stat) both with Toronto and with the Rockets the season before. He just seems to mesh well with the team and appears to be worth well over the $5 million salary. Also, if the Rockets make another acquistion via trade or FA signing, it's probably going to be somoen whose player pair stats and +/- number looks better than his fantasy stats Jarron Collins, for example... was +5 over the last 2 seasons. Marko Jaric is another guy who, despite not having had a good year in Minny, seems to bring a suprising amount of positive play to his teams. Another thing... about the PF position-- one thing I found very interesting is that that the +/- stats and player pair stats generally showed that Rockets struggled with Mo Taylor, Juwan Howard, and Stro Swift on the floor. In fact, statistically they did better-- much better in some cases-- with Chuck Hayes, Padgett, Kelvin Cato, and Eddie Griffin. Now, these numbers are detailed enough to make certain conclusions on, but given that this has happened over several years, I'm gonna make some speculations about what that means: Speculation 1: PF who are decent post-up/midrange shooting/scoring optons with weak rebounding games hurt the Rockets-- What do Juwan, Stro, and Mo have in common? All 3 are below average rebounders, all 3 have decent offensive games. With Yao around, they aren't gonna get many post-up chances. Their midrange shots don't really space the floor enough to make up for their rebounding weaknesses. Speculation 2: Rebounding and 3 point shooting are the two skills that seems to help Rockets the most in terms of the 4 spot. PFs who are good rebounders (Hayes, Cato-- despite being overpaid), good enough 3 point shooters (Padgett) or both (Eddie Griffin) are the ones who help the team the most. Now, Hayes was a 6'6'' rookie, Padgett was a marginal NBA talent (who, by the way, sucks on D), and Griffin wasn't "all there" even back then... they helped the teams despite their shortcomings. This is why, I think, Stro got traded and Howard can well be on the way out next, why Hayes is getting a shot a significant bump in minutes next season and why Battier and maybe Novak will help the Rockets out a good deal playing the 4. If they do pursue another PF (and they should try and get a PF/C type to get sufficient C depth), I'm expecting them to follow this trend.
That's probably it... in all honesty, though, Brian Cardinal may have been a pretty useful player had he just stayed healthy over the last 2 seasons. Richie Frahm was the case of "small sample size"... everyone else played 3000+ minutes while Rchie logged in about 500.
The NO trade looks good in hindsight, but nobody knew that Marcus was going to slide down that far. I think that we can all agree that the Rockets have been underachieving in the post season for several years. If you look in the last 11 years, most of those teams had 1-2 superstars and surrounded with good role players. The exception to the role is Detroit, which had 5 good players and no superstar.
We could have told logo that we would pull the trigger on the deal after the 2nd round was over. That would have given us the chance to shop Gay for more. Chances that Battier was going somewhere else that fast? Slim. Real slim. I wanna play poker with CD and Morey some time. Pennies from heaven.....
Actually, the chances are Battier being gone was very good. SEA and MEM had a Battier for the 10th pick deal in place.
More than isolating a player's individual effect on the team play I would be interested in a player's individual effect on the team play against specific matchups. Ideally, the ones that we would have to beat in the playoffs. For instance, Hayes' lack of height doesn't seem to effect his rebounding and +/- numbers, but I would like to know how those same numbers look against elite teams. Maybe Hayes can abuse the Antoine Walkers of the NBA, but does he become a significant liability against Tim Duncan or Dirk Nowitski who will tower over him? Since everyone compares Hayes to Charles Barkley, think Horry vs Barkley during the championship seasons. My guess is that the Rocket team that went to game 7 vs Dallas was probably a good looking moneyball team. They were finally beat by 40 points in a series that slowly exposed their individual matchups.
Van Gundier, funny that you mention Marco Jaric, as he has been a big disappointment in Minnesota and I bet you anything that they would love to move him if they could. Conviently the Rockets have a player the Wolves have been interested in the past, a player we would like to move and a player with a matching salary....Juwan Howard. Jaric is a good 3pt shooter and a smart player, but I dont see him as being a "JVG" type player. Just doesnt seen gritty enough. However, Jaric and Howard make a similar salary and both teams probably would like to move those players, so.....
The Rockets never wanted Gay, so without a specific deal in place, I don't think they would risk getting stuck with him. Our pick would have been different.
I like your speculations better than all these moneyball or +/- stats. Whatever happened to just watching the player on the court and using your better judgement. Now I only watched 90% of all the games but what I saw in comparing Chucky Hayes to JHO was that we were a better team with Chucky on the court. He was a hustle type player who scrapped the boards for hustle rebounds and then had this amazingly quick putback that allowed him to get his shot off among bigger defenders. Most of those points are points we would have not come up with otherwise. In addition he got his fair share of steals while his turnovers were pretty low. And probably his biggest plus in my eyes was most of his game didn’t take away from Yao or Tmac . His offense was almost all a bonus. Now Juwan Howard on the the other hand, even overlooking his rebounding and defensive deficiencies, was not the offensive plus that some would have you believe. Yes he would score more points than anyone outside of TMAC and Yao but it always seemed to me he would take them out of the flow of the game. Too many times he would try to create his shot while Yao was standing open or while someone else. He was like a tall Steve Francis who would make the offense look stagnant while he did his thing IMO. I’m not saying he shouldn’t have ever taking a shot. He was a decent from 10 – 15 ft out and certainly their were time we needed his offense. The problem is he could not jusdge the difference between when it was better for him to pass and when it was better for him to shoot. Now that’s what I saw on the court and his +/- ratings support that but why couldn’t someone see that in real time and make the adjustment. JHO and Yao did not play well together and thus there minutes on the court to gether should have been limited. IMO Juwan should have got most of his minutes when Yao was on the bench and I don’t need any stats or ratings to show me that. Now I could go on and explain why I thought even Swift deserved more minutes than Howard but it would take a lot more explaining and wouldn’t be as clear. Suffice it to say that I saw improvement in Stro albeit minor and there were intangibles that Stro brought to t the court that JHO could never. I think what bugs me the most was even in the end of the season when there was nothing to win for and it was a perfect time to give Chucky and Stro more minutes and see what they can do JHO was still getting most of the minutes while Swift who had some pretty decent games toward the end of the season was still averaging less than 20 minutes a game. No +/- rating can explain that. The only thing that makes some sense is he must have been in the doghouse or someone new they did not want him on the team and did not want to give him any minutes where he might shine. One last thing... in spite of what many here felt and still feel I thought releasing EG was a mistake. He is exactly what we need from a PF. A shot blocking rebounding force that can play D. Yes even with his past and his current drunk driving porno incident. He has been an otherwise trouble free player on Minny and we didn't have to throw him away so quickly. And maybe unfairly blamed JVG for pulling the trigger. I know i'll get slammed for that but that's my take.
First, let me say that I agree with most of what you are saying, but.. Hayes and Padgett are not good examples for stats. Hayes just didn't play enough. Cato and Griffin are irrelevant because they never played with McGrady. Padgett was used in situations that suited him. JVG would rarely let him out against the other teams' A-team as he favored other (I originally typed defensive, but then thought better of it after realizing who was on court when Padgett wasn't) players in these situations. This is not to say the Rockets wouldn't have done well with Padgett in these situations, but they rarely tried. Padgett also played mostly with the better Rocket players. Padgett still hasn't meet the great Tyrone Lue (hyperbole). Stro actually did very well with Yao on the court and probably had an average +/- at the PF position, but alas he'll only be remembered for not meeting expectations and his horrible plays instead of his average play. Unlike Padgett and Hayes, he logged a lot of minutes at the center and didn't do so well statistically. Stro playing center was a necessary evil that the Rockets may miss next season if they don't add someone that can play center. When Stro is at center, Ming and Mutumbo are not in the game. JVG didn't play Hayes much in this situation even though it would seem you would want someone to rebound on the court. Howard and MoT...I will not argue. Can the Rockets trade Howard for Stro? I like Battier and think he will play like Padgett offensively, but he will be left in the game for his defense in more situations unlike Padgett.
He includes a standard error next to the rating, which indicates how reliable they are. It's based on the +/- performance of 5-man units, and it requires a lot of sample data for the it to be reliable. For players like Frahm who simply didn't play a lot of minutes, you can't put too much stock in the rating.
How does that make sense? If Battier is as valuable as you claim, and the Logo turned down as many deals for All-Star players as you claim, why would they just trade away Battier for the #10 (with Gay off the board) and Fortson (negative value)? I was under the impression that West made the deal simply because Gay was still on the board as he said himself he had rated him as one of the top 2 guys in the draft. He obviously doesn't make this deal for someone other than Gay or Battier simply isn't as valuable as is being suggested.
