Van Gundier makes the best case for why this trade was done. This is a very good analysis. However, the deal would have seemed more palatable if we could have gotten the 24th pick from Memphis. It is still a question of value for value, and we were all looking at Seattle who was reportedly looking to give up its #10 pick as something we lusted after. I do not need to remind anyone that the #8 with Rudy Gay unexpectedly sitting there for the taking was alot more valuable. The trade is understandable, but it still seems like we didn't get fair value. Nonetheless, it is time to get over it and welcome Mr. Battier aboard. Now I just hope that someone is using a money ball approach when we decide if we really need Mike James enough to sign him for 6 years at his age???
van gundier's post was right on the money, except for his draftpicks to allstars ratio.. see my sig for those numbers
The 20% was of lottery picks. There typically aren't that many non-lottery all stars so those 15 picks every year just dilute the percentage.
Exactly. The biggest reason people can't get over the trade is that we gave up too much. From a risk/reward standpoint we gave up gay for way too little. In terms of "moneyball" analysis, Juwan has a much more negative value than Stro. And the fact that he has a bigger contract and is only getting older, and slower and worse, while Stro could conceivably get better through sheer repetition and familiarity. So not trading Howard in the deal instead of Stromile is a big hit. Especially if Jerry West ends up peddling Stro for some draft picks or anyone of value. And not pulling extra draft picks out of this deal is pretty much inexcusable. A potential top 3 pick with top pick talent is worth much, much more than we got in return. It's notoriously very difficult to trade up in the draft. We've tossed out three draft picks to get it done, and proven nba stars like Elton Brand and Shareef Abdur Rahim (whose value was as a borderline all-star at the time) have been moved for top draft talent . And then you look at the NBA landscape and how things are moving in terms of matchups and how frontcourts are going smaller in order to take advantage of the rule changes, and it's obvious that we gave up a lot in Gay. Physically and skillwise, he's the perfect player for the "New NBA". People are talking about how this deal is good because Battier can play PF against teams like Phoenix and Dallas, and I'm thinking so could Gay. Only better. Gay is longer, more athletic, and more skilled offensively so he can dictate the defensive matchups better by the opponent. For example pitting Battier against a smaller PF type like Shawn Marion might help us defensively, but offensively Battier's not going to give us a whole lot because he's a limited scorer (basically only on spot ups and a bit of low post work). In that same vein, he's not nearly as effective on bigger PFs because he's not going to dictate any matchups on the offensive end. He can't post up a regular sized PF, so he'll be relataged to camping out in the corner. Even a bigger, less quick PF can handle that assignment, so they keep the advantage on their end, since I can't imagine that Battier's low post defense will be anything more than adequate on a low post PF. Gay on the other hand can take the ball off the dribble, run off screens and basically be an extremely tough cover for any big PF (or mostly anybody for that matter). The trick to dictating matchups at a particular position is to not provide an easy cover at either approximate position. That's why the two small guards backcourt is starting to have a lot of success. If you have two small, quick, guards that can take the ball off the dribble, then it forces the defense in a bad position because there isn't anywhere for a subpar defensive guard to hide. Same thinking applies to the forward position. A tandem of Gay and T-mac is much harder to deal with than Battier and T-mac. (Just to go in a quick tangent, if we're talking about pure offensive skills, a T-mac and Novak tandem might be better than either of those two. The way Novak moves on offense, running through screens and being able to shoot from distance, you do not want any PF to be chasing him around. And you sure as heck don't want to put a 4 on Tracy mcgrady. Though only time will tell what Novak can bring to the table defensively to make these idealized musings come to pass) And if you factor in Tracy's back and his concerns for the future, it totally boggles my mind that they didn't value Gay more. He's one of the few guys that we could have drafted that could potentially take over superstar duties from Tracy if he goes down to injury in the next few years. Yao is still a young guy. The way he plays, and the kind of work he puts into staying in shape and improving shows me that he's got a lot of years ahead of him. So if Gay pans out we could be looking at contending for the next ten years or so. It'd be nice if the Rockets were thinking in the long term instead of banking everything on going over the hump in the next couple of years. It's not as if I don't like Battier. And I can certainly see the point in trading away an unproven talent like Gay. But you look at his potential, the way the NBA is going, Tracy's situation, Stro and Howard's contracts, and Yao's window of opportunity, and it's plain to me that we didn't get anything close to fair value for Gay and Swift. Make it Miller and Battier for Gay, Howard and Sura and the board is jumping for joy. Make it Gay and Stro for Battier and a 2007 first rounder, and everyone spends a year dreaming about the deepest draft in history (so everyone says). Make it Howard and Gay for Battier and the #24 pick and we get an extra draft pick to obsess over. Either way the Rockets management could have deflected a ton of criticism if they struck a better deal with Memphis. That's all I'm saying.
You made some good points. But you based your arguments on too many assumptions; you assumed Gay will turn out to be a star and overestimated the value of Swift. I don't think we can say for sure that this trade would be a good or a bad one for another 3-4 years.
But the "value" of a draft pick ALWAYS weighs heavier on the upside. That's why you get deals like Elton Brand for Tyson Chandler. That's why centers always get drafted high, because the less likely reward is worth the bigger risk in NBA gm's mind. For a team like Memphis, who's completely stuck in a vicious cycle; good enough to make the playoffs, not good enough to win a playoff game, not bad enough to get a high draft pick, we should have held them over a barrel. Can you honestly say that we didn't get jobbed on this deal. That if we just drafted Gay and made him available for all takers, we couldn't get a better deal? That we couldn't play Memphis against another team to make them sweeten their offer? In fact, I don't see why we didn't do that. Draft Gay, and then just wait and prey on any teams that had a disappointing draft, or don't have much chance in free agency to overpay for what we've got. If we've still got our eye on Battier, having other teams bidding would only help those negotiations. The deal isn't such a bad deal based on who pans out and who doesn't. It's a bad deal based on the fact that we should have gotten much better terms than what we agreed to.
Van Gundier in da house! Sterling post, rook! Seriously, you have show the trade in the proper light: Even if Rudy Gay *does* turn out to be an All-Star or superstar, the odds against that happening dictated that the Rockets pull the trigger on this one. Another thought: Jerry West is 70 years old and would surely like to cement his (possibly undeserved) reputation as a genius GM by pulling off one last big deal. With this one, he's got nothing to lose: He trades a "role player" for a possible star and a tradable asset. If Gay becomes a star, or even a decent player, West will get the pat on the head he's looking for. If Gay is a bust, then all West gave up for him was a role player. Win-win, baby! It's trickier for the Rockets: Given that they have two stars who are offensive forces and solid defenders, what they desperately need are dependable role players -- in particular a shooter and a "dirty work" guy. It's starting to look like they might have found both in this draft. The James acquisition and another free-agent pickup should hopefully solidify things even more.
It is a gamble. But I'd rather have proven solid NBA player in Battier than Gay/Swift on this team. This trade is not bad at all if you think more carefully given Rox current situation. Potential doesn't do Rox any good now.
Simply put,James and Battier are two starters who bring the proven PROFESSIONAL talent and necessary skillset for the Rockets to be in the running for a championship over the next few years.(toss in an athletic 2/3 and a rebounding PF and we're there)
Erm, if you'll read my reply again, you'll see that I'm not arguing the potential angle so much as the "we got terrible value" argument. That is one aspect of this trade that I have yet to hear the least bit of justification for.
I have already stated that your arguments were weak because you made too many assumptions on Gay and overestimated the value of Swift in my first reply.
You're misunderstanding my whole point about value. Until the time that Gay steps onto an NBA court and starts playing like crap, he still has a lot of value in the league (and even if he plays like crap, teams will line up to give him second and third chances). Teams are always eager to take talent and potential over anything else. Because being able to harnass potential is the only way to win in this league. Even the Pistons (the most team-orientated, non-superstar title winners in recent history), needed to take a chance on Rasheed Wallace's talent in order to win a title. And the fact that Gay is on a rookie deal, which is by far the most cost effective contract in the league for productive players, makes him a very low-risk player in terms of a team's cap situation. If you put Gay on the open market, just call 29 teams and say, "I'll trade Gay for the best offer" we would have certainly gotten a better deal than we did. If for no other reason than it would have forced West to sweeten his offer. And if Swift is such a negative in your eyes, then why didn't we move Juwan in that deal instead. If I'm overestimating Stro's value so much, then shouldn't Juwan be a comparable throw-in. And I hope that you aren't saying that you'd rather have Juwan than Stro, because that is inane. Juwan has a bigger contract, is a worse player in "moneyball" terms, and will only get older and slower. I repeat, my biggest argument isn't that we traded Gay and Stro for Battier, but that we didn't get more out of the deal.
battier couldn't help a fifty win team win a playoff game. he's valuable during the regular season, when games get long, and better players start to take games off in the hustle department. battier will make the rockets a better team during the regular season, when the real season gets started, his effectiveness is neutralized because the better player start diving for ball, defending every layup etc. he won't get you over the top.
Very good posts by Van Gundier AND m_cable. It's all on how you view the glass(half full or half empty). I think in the end, m_cable will be right. I don't think Gay will turn out as a TMac, but more of a longer Eddie Jones, which isn't bad at all. And on a team that struggled to stay healthy last year this trade will resonate loudly if it happens again. I thought if there was anything that stood to be learned from last season, it was our over-reliance on our two stars. We couldn't win if one was out, much less if both were. And on a team that was playing alot of minimum salaried players it was easy to understand our record without them.I believe our numbers were 4-17 with one out and 2-23 with both out, but don't quote me. I'll have to look it up when I have more time. The point is we seem to be walking that tight rope again this season, and with no cap room and two for one trades like the one mentioned, it's hard not to question the management for not demanding another player or draft pick on this trade. Yes, Gay probably wasn't going to play alot of minutes this season, but niether was Head, Bogans, and Hayes last season. I just hope we stay healthy and are able to compete next year.
van gundier nice post on the explanation of how moneyball work, but I just had to point one thing out. yao WAS NOT a low risk/high reward player. it is hindsight to say he was. no player his size has ever been a top notch scorer, rebounder or player for that matter. guys his size have almost always been plagued by injuries due to their size as well. so to call yao a moneyball type player when he was drafted is wrong..
I think of this trade as a swap of #8 pick in 2006 for the #6 pick in 2001 with proven NBA experience, which is not bad IMO. Swift is just damaged goods now. I applaude Rox for admitting their mistake and dumping him to another team to cut the losses. Howard maybe old and slow, but at least he's playing hard and not missing a month of game time with "conjunctivitis".
1. Thanks guys! I've been reading the forum for a while now and finally signed up. Hope to get more information from reading here and hopefully, I can contribute to some discussions. 2. About the "Couldn't we get more from MEM or another team?" question... Now, I'd be more than happy if they did get more, even if it's just a pick, but I think you guys may be underestimating the going market price for Battier and overestimating the market value of Rudy. There simply are not that many guys with Battier's skill set, bball IQ, effectiveness, and attractive contract out there-- there are about 3 Corey Maggette, Ricky Davis, Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Stephen Jackson, etc to every Shane Battier or Raja Bell (another underrated guy... nobody really thought much of his offense before this year, but he's filled in beautifully for Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson). There is a reason why Battier got an invite for Team USA and it's not just because he's the illegitimate son of Coach K. He not just another role player, but one of THE VERY BEST role players out there. Rockets are not the only team that want Battier, and I'm pretty sure all the other teams would be willing to pay a very good price for him, too. My guess if if they lowball Jerry West too muchm then Battier ends up somewhere else. Also, Rockets can shop Rudy around to other teams, and I'm sure they did plenty of shopping of the 8th pick knowing that Rudy could fall to them (papers reported they were scrambling to do last minute research on Rudy and Bargnani along with interviews of Tyrus and Roy), but are you sure there is one offer out there that's better than what they got? I'm just speculating here, but Rockets probably didn't get offered a true All Star in return for Rudy (why trade a 100% certain star for a guy with only a chance to become one?)-- any "star" or "pseudo star" they got in return probably have warts you might not want to deal with-- injury history, chemistry problem, bad contract, etc. Keep in mind that all Boston got for the 7th pick was basically Sebastian Telfaire and the right to exchange the zombie of Raef Lafrentz for the earthlly remains of Theo Ratliff-- and Ainge did that knowing Rudy (or one of the other "top propsects") could very well slip. Also, Portland, a team with that perennially goes for "upside guys" and who has every incentive to go for another "upside guy" since they are rebuilding for the future, had a chance to take Rudy with the 7th pick, but decided to take Foye, a combo guard they don't really need or want in order to pay Minnesota extra cash to get the NBA ready but not quite as exciting Brandon Roy. 3. Speaking of Roy, let's think about the Brandon Roy deal that could have happened: First, Rockets probably preferred Roy to Battier. My guess is it has to to with positions-- Roy is a classic 2 guard with some ability to play the 1. Battier more of a classic 3 with some ability to cover 2s and 4s. Second, I don't know how much you guys remember the 2001 draft, but Shane Battier was the Brandon Roy of 2001-- the 4 year star NCAA player who improved every year, nice all around game, definitely NBA ready, but not as much upside as some of the other exciting prospects. So... those of you still upset about the deal: Would you still be upset if Portland had not disrupted the previously rumored deal and Rockets got to send Luther Head+8th pick over to Minny in order to get the 2006 Draft version of Shane Battier? Incidentally, everyone remember the guy drafted right after Battier in 2001? I seem to remember the guy who traded for his rights talking about how excited he was to get him because this kid had such upside that he would have picked him #1 overall had his team had the top pick (or something like that. 4. Now even the biggest Battier supporter in me has to admit he has limitations on offense. You are not goiong to iso Shane Battier and ask him to score 20 points. Rockets don't really need that from a player, with TMac and Yao around (and maybe Mike James, too, if he joins) to do that job. Offensively, he'll provide all that the Rockets need-- good spotup shooting to space the floor for Tracy/Yao/maybe Mike to operate, garbage points off rebounds and passes. Yes, it's true he probably won't be blowing by even "traditional 4s", but the important thing is they'll have to stay with him at all times, or he'll drain the 3 or score the garbage basket on them. It'll just give the rest of the team that much room to operate. 5. Looking at the "moneyball stats" that us laymen can find on 82games.com and similar sources, I agree that it would seem that the next logical "moneyball victim" from the squad would be Juwan. He's seems to be a nice guy, plays hard, and not a scrub...sentimentally, I want him on the team, but his skill set just isn't a fit and the 7 mil a year he makes over the next 3 years can be better used on another player.
True... but is he that huge of a risk by Center prospects. I mean... look around, we are talking about a positon where recent high lotto picks include a British guy who played at the U of the Pacific (Kandi-man), a fat guy who didn't average double digit rebounds even in high school (Eddy Curry), a guy returning from a 2 year Mormon mission after just one year at BYU (Bradley), etc. At least Yao had already held his own in international competitons before coming to the NBA. He was pretty NBA ready, proving it by having good rookie year production, especially considering that he missed all of preseason and training camp.
