Rockets luxury tax watch 2019: What we are doing and why it matters

Fair enough, but there is always a risk of injury - look at Luc for example.

At the very least, House is a nice player to have in case of emergency. And at his best, House was a great rotation piece for us and much more sound defensively than anyone you listed except Shump.

I’d be pretty disappointed if this game of chicken between Morey and House resulted in House not being on our playoff roster. You can bring him on AND stay below the tax.

Harden is having an iconic year and we are chasing a behemoth. A cheap owner and a stubborn (albeit very bright) GM is a lot to overcome when the margins are so thin.

 

All I’m saying is that on April 10th, if House and Morey haven’t reached an agreement, we should convert him to have him available for our playoff run.

House will have been on the roster from 3/24 to 4/10, which is enough time to get back into the flow of things. I do not want to see Clark, Hart, or Vince freaking Edwards getting playoff run because our GM was being stubborn

 

Got a big question. Seen that Shumbert contract is 11m Expring. Can the rockets use this to sign a free agent or is that getting absorb into next year to dodge the luxury tax? And if rockets buyout Nene would rockets get some money to throw at free agent with this?. Hes probably more likely a toss in for salary reason on a trade.

 

No , they cant use Shumperts expiring to sign someone else.

What they can do is sign Shumpert with his bird rights then after December 15 use him as a trade piece - That is assuming he is willing to take a one year or one year with a team option type deal.
You can also sign GGreen to an Early Bird contract of about $9.6m (one year or one + a team option) and have that contract as a trade piece after December 15 , again , assuming he is willing to sign that type of deal.

You'd have essentially created two mid sized expiring contracts that total $22.8m …. allowing you to take back about $27.46m in salary.

That is assuming you can find a trade partner that will take back those expirings and "other assets" for a quality player.

 

Yea good luck flipping them two together for a quality player. Pffff.

 

Being 20+M in expiring contracts …. and other assets you can add , its quite possible you land a quality player in that scenario.

Their other options are whoever they can sign with the MLE …. and whatever Veteran minimums they can get.

They are really in a poor position to improve this summer.

 

the problem with giving shumpert and green large 1 year deals to create trade chips is you must be very confident that you will make a trade for a good player using those contracts.

currently the rockets contracts for next year place them just about $9M under the luxury tax, and $15M under the tax apron. if we exceed the apron by signing shumpert and green to large 1 yr deals in order to create trade chips, then we no longer have access to the larger MLE or the LLE at all. we also cannot receive a player in a S&T.

I think its easier and more likely that we add talent by using the larger non-taxpayer MLE of $9.2M on a really good player (Marcus Morris, Danny Green, Redick, wes Matthews, aminu, mirotic, oubre, portis, lamb, etc..). that puts us over the tax but hard caps us at the apron. we can then use the LLE to retain rivers hopefully. we then have just $2.2M remaining before we hit the apron. maybe we spend our cash to buy a first round pick. save a vet min contract for mid-season buyouts. done.

OR

give green/shumpert whatever you want but then you can not use the LLE and you can only use the taxpayer MLE of $5.7M to bring in a guy like JaMychal Green, rose, Taj, ed Davis, Tyreke Evans, JaVale, Markieff, pope, Seth Curry, etc...). we won't be hard capped so we can trade shumpert/green for a larger contract after Dec 15. we can also use all of our cash to buy possibly 2 SRPs. hopefully those guys pan out so they can be traded with shumpert/green instead of adding multiple future picks to the trade package.

I think option A provides more talent even with the hard cap. I wouldn't want to rely on a high priced trade panning out. money talks so having the full MLE and the LLE are guaranteed ways to add talent at the start of the season rather than waiting until dec 15 or for the feb deadline. for example option A gives us mirotic, rivers, and a first round pick. option B gives us JaMychal Green, a couple of SRPs, and shumpert/green to package later in the season.

I honestly think we could have beaten the warriors two years in a row if we had 1 more rotation player. we can't win playing green, shumpert, nene against them. keeping rivers and adding a starting quality free agent will be enough. if we had aminu, Morris, mirotic, etc. instead of green, shumpert, and nene, I think we makeup 6 points in a couple of those losses.

 

I think its highly unlikely they use the larger MLE and hard cap themselves. In your scenario they get one of those above but still have multiple open roster spots with associated cap holds. Those roster cap holds put you over the apron (I didn't do the math).

They are really in a bad place this offseason.

 

The Rockets will not be hard capped so the restrictions don't matter. However, until I see it I don't know if TF is seriously going to do what it takes to win. Shumpert can be used in a S&T up to 120% of his salary close to EGo's amount and not have BYC rules affect him. We don't have to wait to December to trade him. RECEIVING a S&T causes the restrictions.

 

my numbers were including the open roster charges. I think we can/should use the full MLE and the LLE and fill out the roster with minimum salary guys. that should put us right at the apron.

however, I agree with you that morey prefers keeping options open. he has been hard capped before, so there's an argument to be made that he's ok with that as well.

 

I don't believe roster spots can just remain open for the duration - remember we had to sign T.Jones and someone else (I forget who) to 10 days at the end of the season to satisfy league rules on the matter …

 

yes I meant that I added the cost of filling those spots. I believe vet min contracts for all open spots, plus returning contracts, puts us about $15M under the apron. enough to use the non-taxpayer MLE, the LLE, and the cost of a late first round pick if we buy one with cash.

 

we'll avoid the luxury tax and still beat the warriors /tillman and his delusional fanatics

no you wont /every contender for the past 20 years

if you want to own an nba team that can contend, you better be ok with the luxury tax.

 

I haven't done the math so I'll take your word for it ….

I think they are better off trying to get a return on CP3 …. and finding a quality 3/4 that can rebound , defend , shoot and drive.
Cp3 is just redundant when you have Harden ...

 

Other salaries go up. We don’t have any space but we can go over the cap to re-sign him. I doubt the LT will be dodged this year.

 

Are there limits to how much a 1-year deal can be non-guaranteed? My fantasy is Shump agrees to a 12-mil 1-year deal that is mostly non-guaranteed and his contract mostly serves as a large trade exception. He might do it if no one offers him more than the vet min.

 

yeah I'd look tetrode him as well. he will only play less games each year and continue his decline in the games he does play... and that contract is only going up. however, I may give it one more year since we were so close the first 2 years. one hamstring away, and this year we just spent less to avoid the tax, but played them so close. I believe with a little added depth we would've had them this year too.

also, I think Paul is harden's mental rock. without him I'd worry about harden going back to questionable decisions / frustration plays.

 

Yes, that rotation player is James Harden. We need him to be better than the worst clutch time player in the NBA for once. Imagine expecting your MVP to not lackadaisically turn the ball over or miss crucial ft’s or commit ridiculous offensive fouls or play lazy defense when you need him most? That would be neat. But we’ve designed this offense to revolve entirely around a player that can’t perform late in critical games so now we want to blame everyone else but him when he doesn’t do the thing we have literally depending on increasingly over the last few seasons.

So I guess in that regard, yes.... we do need another rotation player.