Rockets luxury tax watch 2019: What we are doing and why it matters

there's not much reason to expect hes getting anything more than min

 

Pelicans got over $9M in expiring salaries in that deal, though (Smith, Johnson), which the Rockets couldn't offer.

(Technically, they could have traded Shumpert, but the reason they didn't do that obviously isn't cash-related.)

 

@BimaThug how much would House count to the luxury tax calculation if we signed him to the rest of our MLE ($3.3 MM) on the last day of the regular season?

 

Ya I know

I don't think we are gonna sign him long term. House will have to break . Tilman has spoken , we aren't going to pax lux tax so the rockets aren't gonna blink

 

Given those constraints, which I'm 99 percent sure come from Fertitta, he's done a hell of a job. Never said he hasn't. Just that he can't use the shi*ty players---that he picked up---as an excuse for not doing anything in the trade deadline market.

Just don't bull**it me with talk that you're all in, when dodging the luxury tax is obviously the most important constraint on Morey's behavior.

The Zubac dump still pi$$es me off. You couldn't have traded Melo for him back on Dec 15? Lol at dumping him for trash. LeBron having to play out the rest of this season on that sinking ship, is about the sole highlight of this trade deadline story.

 

We're pretty much in agreement.

Assuming they retain Shumpert.

Potentially lose both Rivers and Faried as their early bird isn't enough. Keeping one or both really helps the situation.

What they do with the MLE ….

EG being an expiring (along with Nene) is the piece they move to attempt to improve the roster from that point.


Without a doubt we'll see several vet min guys on the team again.

 

I'm interested in this too. Isn't it some ridiculously low number due to the pro ration?

If you could sign him to that, is the remaining MLE value 3.3 M, the figure that can be used to give a player X percent escalators per year? So 3.3-->3.93-->4.71 on a 3 year deal? And if he says no to that, to hell with him.

 

That's the reality of it when your trio of Harden, CP3, and Capela takes up 80% or so of your capspace. Morey knew it and that's probably the "new math" he joked about. The hope is that Harden's prime lasts the entire length (or most) of his upcoming extension and that Capela continues to produce at his current rate. Paul is going to obviously decline some more so Morey will have to be creative either either the vet mins the MLE or both.

For those that keep b****ing about Paul's contract, I'm pretty sure Harden had to give his input/blessing on that trade so I wouldn't feel too bad for him.

 

Realty can be harsh … best case is that CP3 finds the fountain of youth.

For the record , I wasn't against CP3's contract …. but in hindsight , it appears its hamstrung us sooner than expected by forcing other cost cutting moves that limit what can be acquired in the immediate future. Those $32m that were above the cap …. they matter more than we thought when the tax is to be avoided like the plague.

 

Love that we ducked the TAX and now will be able to pay it for the next couple of years with ease..and not worry about the repeaters tax

The Rockets as constructed, with health, are a legitimate threat to win it all, thats why these series of trades make me feel even better about all of this. Good job Morely!

 

Yea but everyone here should have known what we were going to get with Paul though. He's had different injuries the past 5-6 years so he's not a model for durability.

Our best shot was last year and that's why Morey will never get over it. Now it's up to him to rebuild the team with even more limited resources.

 

We’re u guys saying this not rockets fans when he owned the team?

We made a deadline move every year to get under the tax.

I don’t understand ppl saying this.

Nothing the rockets did was bad.

We upgraded talent in ennis for shump and saved money. Chriss and knight weren’t playing.

The 1st round pick sucks but that’s what it took to get off Anderson bad contract.

 

This could also be applied to buyout candidates, especially those that are waived closer to March 1st (or Markieff Morris, who was waived today but is injured for a while). Wait a few weeks and give them the rest of the MLE with a player option. Just gotta find that right date where we stay below the luxury tax.

In fact, if Morey can convince one of these guys to wait until March or early April, we could potentially sign TWO meaningful buyout targets and stay under the tax.

Based on Albert Nahmad, we’ll be $1.134 MM below the luxury tax if Capela doesn’t hit his minutes or DReb% bonuses (not looking likely).

Hypothetical:
2/21: sign one scrub to 10-day deals (min deal counts $75k) plus one buyout target

MLE prorates differently than the minimum, so we wouldn't be able to go use it and stay under the tax unfortunately

 

If Capela doesn't hit his minutes and DReb% goals, we are $1.1 MM below the tax.

There is a pathway for us to sign 2 buyout players AND House while staying under the luxury tax:

• 2/21 (need to have 14 active players by this date):
  • Sign buyout target A to pro-rated minimum ($399k)
  • Sign rookie to to 10-day deal ($47k)
• 3/3 (when 10-day deal expires)
  • Sign buyout target B to pro-rated minimum ($315k)
• 3/24: Call up Danuel House from DLeague (cost unknown)
• 4/10 (Last day of regular season): sign House to pro-rated minimum ($8k)

Gives you ~$300k in wiggle room, which can be used to sign buyout A, B, or House earlier. Hell, you could sign both buyout guys next week and still squeak under the tax.

 

Nice breakdown!
Question... how would it affect the tax if the rockets were to sign a buyout target today? Would signing a pro rated minimum today then following the rest of your breakdown push them over the tax?

 

Signing someone today would count ~$515k towards the luxury cap, so we’d still be a bit under the cap (if Capela doesn’t hit his DReb and minutes incentive targets)

 

I'm sure we'll be very competitive in the buyout market when we ask guys to wait until the end of the season. And when we do get them, not having spent time with the team during the season will mean those buyout players will be extra valuable in playoff minutes...

Obviously I'm being sarcastic. I think our best hope is that Markief Morris needs a few weeks to get his neck right, and he's willing to look past our salary cap shenanigans since no one will sign him hurt, and he signs with Houston last minute. If healthy he's a good fit.

 

This guy is making too much sense and being too optimistic.

 

Morey is a cold enough sunnnofagun to keep House on a two-way for another year. But then House wouldn’t be playoff-eligible at all. I’d be upset to not have him available (over useless players like Hart and Clark) in case of emergency.

Plus, that $50k represents a qualifying offer. If we sign him to the min this year, the qualifying offer is $1.9 MM. Any team could offer him a contract and then we’d have to make a decision on matching that. I think a slightly higher QO is worth having House for a playoff run. But maybe Morey thinks the precedent set with two-way players is most important here.