it’s not a bad deal. I don’t know how good a deal, but I’m optimistic. don’t think Jalen is worth $36 mil per, so the max money comparisons are irrelevant to me. It’s all about Jalen taking that next big step. If he does, the rockets are going to get a 2-yr discount and Jalen is gonna be able to recoup some money with the player option. If Jalen doesn’t take that step we’ll be overpaying for 3 yrs, but probably not by a ton, and the short contract length makes it potentially tradable. This is a kick the can deal that tries to minimize exposure. Let’s all hope Jalen takes that big next step.
I like this deal. I'm not a big fan of Green but at this rate I'm fine with the contract. It has its upside and downside. The upside is that the Rockets, should they let FVV go next offseason, can pick up a big money player (up to max if they make some small cap clearing moves) while retaining Green. Because this deal along with Sengun's is small enough that they can keep that flexibility. The downside is that if he's good enough to decline that Player Option, he's going to be asking for a huge raise right around the time when the Amen/Cam/Reed are looking to be paid. While if he sucks, he'll be taking up capspace when the Rocket need to be paying for his replacement. At least for the short term, this is a definite win.
This is a good deal. All rookie extensions overpay due to future potential. Otherwise, not a single player in the 2021 draft would be worth their contract, including Sengun, if they make 0 improvements for the duration of their contract. The ability for players to actually hit their potential is a different story. Green, compared to other 2021 rookies, has the biggest fluctuation. His highs are incredibly high and would easily warrant a max contract, his lows would be no better than a bench unit contract. If Green can play at his highest level, or even 75% of his highest level of play this coming season, then someone is going to offer him a max. This contract would then be a major bargain based on his potential market price. If Green ends up underperforming, his contract won't handicap the team, and they are only stuck with him on a 3 year contract. If he performs well, you do not need to pay a significant premium on potential, unlike other rookie max extensions that are currently being handed out. If he performs decent, you buy more time to see if continuous growth is expected. Most importantly, he (and Sengun) sets a precedence for the other players on this roster to take similar contracts in the future. There is now a clear path for the Rockets to keep their current young core (Amen, Jabari, Eason).
This is exactly the type of deal I mentioned that would be possible for Jalen, either a deal w an option or incentive driven deal that allows him to make more money later if he proves himself, which this pretty much will turn out to be. We needed more time to see if Jalen was worth a longer term investment, it is nice that Jalen saw this and didn't try to test the market or anything. It shows that he believes in himself and isnt just trying to get a one time pay day. I think both Jalen and Alpi's deals are fair, I don't see them as taking huge discounts or being incredible value as others do, but I think they are fair and not overpays. We see a lot of overpays in the NBA now, that I think these deals seem like they are great value when compared to them.
And Jalen can just leave when the contract is up, right? So if he plays like a max player and feels bad about this contract he can walk away, right. I was almost positive that both him and Sengun wouldnt accept anything lower than the max and would have gotten that from another team. Now we got both on a significantly lower deal, and Sengun for 5 years. The cap is strange in the NBA, but this gives us some flexibility next off season with Tari and Jabari - neither of them seems to be as valuable as either Green or Sengun right now... we might just get out of our 4 years of top 4 draft picks without a max rookie extension... hope is still out.
If Jalen Green plays like a max contract player, then his contract is actually not necessarily a bad contract for him either, because the cap is going up quite drastically from 2024-2025 onwards. Therefore, if he plays like a max player, then he has the unique opportunity of signing a max contract during peak cap growth. Furthermore, whilst Green will be come an UFA after 3 years of his contract, the Rockets can actually extend him after the 2nd year. That again gives Rockets leverage to offer a contract to him before anyone else can. A very rare win/win for all involved.
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/st...kie-contract-extensions-reaction-grades-deals Rockets secure top duo in separate extension deals •Agreed to a reported five-year, $185 million extension with center Alperen Sengun •Agreed to a reported three-year, $106 million extension with guard Jalen Green Grade: Pass for Sengun deal, fail for Green deal (extensions graded on pass/fail scale) If you had set the over/under total on Rockets rookie extensions at 0.5, I probably would have taken the under. Instead, Houston ended up agreeing to deals with both of the team's 2021 first-round picks, who have developed into core starters on a rising young team. The Sengun extension is particularly surprising because the Rockets could have utilized his small $16.3 million cap hold to potentially create space next summer before re-signing him as a restricted free agent, similar to how the Philadelphia 76ers waited on signing Tyrese Maxey in order to sign Paul George. But the two sides compromised on a deal that pays Sengun a little more than 80% of the expected $224 million max for rookie extensions. That's a win for the Rockets given Sengun was as productive as any 2021 draft pick last season, when he averaged 21.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG and 5.0 APG and finished third in voting for Most Improved Player. The trade-off that surely made this contract palatable for Sengun was getting a player option on the fifth year, a luxury that typically has been reserved for rookie extensions for elite players. As ESPN's Bobby Marks noted, Luka Doncic and Trae Young were the last two players to get that option. If Sengun develops into a superstar, Houston might regret not pushing for a straight five-year deal, particularly given even Maxey didn't manage to get a player option on his new deal. However, securing Sengun at considerably less than the maximum could prove important as the Rockets manage a number of quality young players graduating from rookie contracts to more lucrative extensions. Green is one such case, and he got a creative extension that might work better for him than for Houston. The negotiations with Green figured to be complicated by differing views on his value around the league. The No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft, Green hadn't yet played up to the max level achieved by the other three players taken in the top four (Cunningham, Mobley, Barnes) -- all of whom already agreed to extensions over the summer. Green has shown flashes of the stardom expected when he was drafted, especially in last season's final 18 games where he averaged 24.2 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.3 assists with above-average efficiency after Sengun suffered a season-ending ankle injury. Given the difficulty finding elite shooting guards and Green's age (22), that kind of performance merited max or near-max compensation. However, much of the Rockets' success in that span came against lottery-bound teams, and Green's efficiency was buoyed by far better 3-point shooting (38%) than in the first three-quarters of the season (31%). As ESPN's Shams Charania reported, Green is the first player to sign a three-year rookie extension with a player option. Typically, player options in rookie extensions have been limited to elite superstars who can command them in the final season of a five-year max deal. This structure is very different, putting Green potentially in unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2027 at age 25. Alternatively, Marks pointed out that a three-year extension with a player option gives both sides the flexibility of negotiating an extension in October 2026 ahead of Green's option. But if Green develops as he and Houston hope, he'll be negotiating from a much stronger position. With Sengun's extension taking the Rockets out of the running for significant 2025 cap space, I think I'd probably have favored waiting to re-sign Green in restricted free agency next summer. Green will have to develop quickly into a star to be worth much more than his salary in this extension, and if he does, Houston will wish this contract was longer.
So, correct me if I’m wrong. In the 2026-27 offseason (when he’s 24), if Jalen hit a supermax escalator, he can sign a four year contract at 30% of the cap? Then, in the 30-31 (when he’s 28), again if he hits an escalator, he can sign at 35%? Did I get that right?
Did you see what the Suns gave up for Bradley Beal? It's probably the worst contract in the league. I would much rather bet on a healthy Jalen Green to reach 80% of his potential than bet on a guy like Beal, who almost never plays more than half a season.
The Rockets are not sure if he will be awesome, otherwise they would have given him the full max. This contract is not about savings, it’s about extending the shelf life of an asset instead of losing him for nothing. BKN has max cap space next year and have incentive to screw us. If Jalen plays like a max player then it wouldn’t have been an issue, we would have just matched the offer. If he plays terrible then it wouldn’t have been an issue either, we just dump him at the trade deadline (for not much value). But if he plays like he has the last few seasons, which probably is the more likely scenario, the Rockets are clearly unwilling to match a max from BKN, which means we lose him for nothing. The Rockets have seen enough from Jalen to continue to want to bet on him, but have not seen enough to want to go all in. They want to have their cake and eat it too. This contract allows them to evaluate him for two more years, then we can more definitively want to keep him or trade him. In the case that he blows up into an actual max player, sure there wouldn’t have been any savings, but who cares, you got a max player.
None of those guys played up to max level. If you gave Jalen the same shot volume and free reign as Cade, he'd have averaged 28 on better efficiency and the Pistons probably win more games on top of that. The only player that you could argue for is Mobley who is Jabari Smith with better rim protection and worse shooting. Jalen basically got the deal all of those guys should've gotten. But the Rockets are the only team positioned to be an actual contender down the road.
