The potential is there. As you said in a very good post - the volatile player got the volatile contract, and needs to prove himself further. He is definitely not a total bust like Anthony Bennett, etc. He was fortunate that he got a lot more opportunity than he might have gotten had he landed in a different situation. But anyway. I'll root for him. One team.
Totally false, I am not saying we are just going to cut him. I am still just not sold on him as a player I'd rather see how this season goes before extending him because he was still more bad than good last year. Signing him now makes us lose some flexibility. Let me break down some scenarios for you. Scenario 1. Waiting to offseason to see how he plays it if its worth it I wouldn't just cut him I could still just resign him then. Scenario 2. The suns start sucking and need to make a trade, we could include Jalen in a trade for Booker with Brooks or Fred or Landale to match salary. Get booker and still have max cap space. Now we can't do this because signing him to an extension makes him ineligible to be traded. Scenario 3. He doesn't play well and we let him go in the offseason and use his cap space to sign a different player. So no scenario am I just letting him walk for nothing. I'm willing to bet I could pay someone else 30 million in the offseason that is a better player than Jalen Green. If he continues playing like he has been I'd rather have these players in the offseason and even some other dudes depending on what they are asking for. Naz Reid Myles Turner Kuminga Aaron Gordon.
I don't think this deal would have had any chance of happening if Udoka didn't like what he saw in the summer and training camp from Jalen. This is a discount on the max but an overpay on his actual production last season. That tells me they are highly optimistic about what Green and our core can do this coming season. Good work Stone. The final chapter will not disappoint.
Off the rip, I am disinclined to like this deal, because I don't think that the discount that was offered in per-year salary is commensurate with the risk in Jalen's profile if he doesn't take a substantial leap forward in terms of consistency. A max rookie extension is roughly 25% of the cap. This is going to start Green at around 21.6% of the cap. This is more than Tyler Herro's extension on a relative basis, and I do not think that Herro is some hugely positive trade asset at his current value. And again, Jalen would have to improve quite a bit just to get to Herro's level on a game-to-game basis. From a longer term asset management perspective, I do wonder if there is a shift going on behind the scenes for both players and agents away from using unrestricted free agency as a way to maximize earnings, into trying to sign an extension as early as possible to lock in guarantees while still healthy. We have seen consistently now that the NBA's salaries are so stupidly high compared to other sports, that getting the exact maximum is not absolutely essential. Derrick White, Dejounte Murray, Donovan Mitchell, Domantas Sabonis, Pasal Siakam, Lauri Markkanen, Jalen Brunson; lots of guys are clearly bypassing the stress of free agency and an uncertain future for the security of life-changing money, even when it seems obvious that they could get a lot more simply by waiting just one more season and start playing teams against each other. Whereas LeBron's prime redefined player empowerment and using the threat of free agency to wield influence on the front office, it seems much more like the newest generation of stars wants to find fit and stability. It's a heck of a lot easier and less stressful to not be worrying about playing through injury for an entire year, and is the difference between $200M and $300M really worth it? Coming back to Jalen, if he is truly a max worthy player in two years, I'm a lot less worried about him actually opting out and leaving the Rockets high and dry if the team is good and he's a featured player. Here's the max money available under different scenarios: Jalen opts out, signs a max with someone else: 4 years, $201M Jalen opts out, signs a max with the Rockets: 5 years, $271M Jalen opts in, signs a max with the Rockets: 5 years, $262M Jalen opts in, signs a max with someone else after that year: 5 years, $301M The differences seem small enough that comfort and contending should be enough to keep him locked in if both sides want it to continue.
Jalen will have to make multiple leaps to be worth $52.5/year after two years. That does not seem likely.
I really did not expect these deals to get done. I like it as a fan but I'm surprised these guys didn't bet on themselves. With a poor free agency class it was a no brainer to sign these guys to below max deals. The bonus is that it actually sets us up better if there are big trades available next summer.
This: and the fact that the AAV is below his cap hold had he gone RFA were the real catalyst for the deal to get done from the team’s perspective.
I generally agree with you, although for arguments sake, the two players he was both comped to heavily during the pre-draft process in Zach LaVine and Bradley Beal both improved substantially through Y6. My point is more that if he becomes a max player, I am not nearly as worried that the Rockets gave him an early out in the contract, whereas I'd be extremely worried if we were back in the Dwight Howard/Chandler Parsons backstage dealing era, where players were a lot more willing to extract every dollar and play on an expiring contract.
No outlets have reported what? Do you need them to report that 5>3? Why do you think the Rockets only offered 3 years instead of 5?
I honestly don't think he is. I'm not his biggest supporter by any stretch of the imagination. I root for him to succeed because he seems like a nice kid and, you know, it greatly benefits the Rockets if he succeeds. But I've generally been disappointed in him. That said, I still think his upside is sexy enough that a team like Phoenix could want him included in a deal for a guy like Devon Booker should they decide to blow it up. I do think that if management doesn't believe in him, they need to move him before the deadline. And I do think the length of this deal signals that the Rockets front office is on the fence about him a little.
