I don't think it's about money with Dirk. I believe him when he says it's about winning. If Cuban can convince him that he can build a team to have a decent shot next year then he will stay. If not then I wouldn't be shocked to see him leave.
True, but I don't see cap space being terribly valuable unless we can get Melo, and even that is less optimal than a SnT. Our alternative options are Lowry, Bledsoe, Stephenson, Deng, Dirk, Gasol, Monroe. Other than Dirk, I don't think the others get us close enough to a championship next year, especially considering that we lose multiple cap exceptions.
It would be very much preferable to the Rockets to 1) acquire a big time player via trade or sign and trade in exchange for an assets package with Lin and/or Asik's contract to serve as necessary ballast for $ matching purposes rather than 2) trading Lin and Asik, and maybe more, to create cap room and then sign a free agent. First, the former route preserves the full non-taxpayer MLE and BAE for use to sign additional free agents like Marion, Pierce, Kirileno, Pau Gasol, etc., while the latter route (the one taken by the team to sign Dwight) would leave the team only with the "room exception" with which the Rockets were unable to sign a decent role player last year, losing out on the bidding for the likes of Dunleavy and Corey Brewer. Second, it is difficult to actually create the kind of max cap room via the latter route necessary to sign the most expensive free agents-- Melo, Lebron, etc. are eligible for a very high level of "max" compared to younger stars like Harden and Love. So chasing those guys via the latter route would likely mean that these guys would have to not only give up on a 5th year, which their own team can offer, but also take an additional pay cut on top of it. That said, the Rockets need to be ready to pursue the latter route, not because they prefer it, but because there is no guarantee that a player's current team would cooperate in a sign and trade and having cap room as an option may be important to the Rockets' ability to negotiate a sign and trade with the player's current team.
The Rockets can go over the cap without hitting the luxury tax threshold at all or they can just go over by a small amount and not hit the multipliers. Additionally, the really restrictive (and expensive) penalties are for repeat offenders. It would be at least 3 years before we could become a repeat offender. Also realize that the cap will likely increase yearly over the life of those contracts.
I could be wrong, but I thought that no matter what we did we weren't going to be eligible for the repeater tax.
You're only eligible for the repeat offender classification if you pay tax in 3 of the 4 prior seasons. Since we're not a tax payer this season, the earliest that we could possibly become a repeat offender is after the 2017 season.
I'll agree with you on the Bull being cheap but just because the Rockets have the "most available" package to send the Knicks doesn't mean it's the one Phil Jackson has to accept. If we're to believe the Knicks don't have an issue with sacrificing a season for cap room then they could conceivably let Melo walk and get nothing in return just like the same situation with Howard and the Lakers. Are the Lakers in a bad position now? Absolutely. But did they get a high pick that can get them a quality player? Absolutely. The difference is that the Lakers compounded their mistake by giving Kobe that ridiculous extension while you and the others have pointed out that the Knicks will have a sizable caproom in 2015. I guess this also boils down to what you and I think will happen because I think Melo's going to opt out and become a free agent.
I'd like to think that Morey is savvy enough to make sure that we won't hit the luxury tax mark even with 3 max players and Parsons.
And Love. Minny don't want what we have unless parsons signs a healthy contract which he won't with minny. I actually don't like where this summer is going. Lebron dirk bosh and love are impossibilities so we're gonna go all out for melo which I would love only I don't think he'll end up here, and then we'll settle for Lowry. We don't even know how Lowry and harden will work as a backcourt and even then we're not a championship team. OKC and clippers will still be better than us next year.
I don't think that tax is a huge issue right now. The tax level is expected to rise up to $77M or so for 2014-15, with the tax "apron" at $81M or so,mbased on a projection that Larry Coon shared in April. There is plenty of flexibility under those numbers. The NBA's revenue is expected to rise further under most careful professional projections-- which is a part of the reason why teams are being sold for very high prices recently. Most significantly, the NBA's national TV deal expires in 2016 and it is likely that a new deal will be much more lucrative.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...-harden-houston-rockets-hot-team-nba/5816795/ This is from a while back. It seems to me that Howard has already put the pieces in motion to wanting to have Melo here.....
The CBA itself will likely expire in 2017 (both players and teams can opt out) so it is anyone's guess as to how the repeater tax issue gets handled after 2017.
Even if it doesn't change the new TV contract is going to drive revenues through the roof. The salary cap is likely to be close to $100 million in 3-4 years. Estimates are the new TV deal will be like 70% more than the previous one. And now with the Clips going off at $2 billion....players are going to opt out and go after a bigger chunk of the pie. Forgone conclusion.
Not that you expect him to say otherwise... <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Harden said he spoke with Chandler Parsons today and yesterday. "He's a big piece to our team and where we want to go."</p>— Jonathan Feigen (@Jonathan_Feigen) <a href="https://twitter.com/Jonathan_Feigen/statuses/474282138213154817">June 4, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I agree. Something in my gut tells me things will blow up in the Rockets' face this summer. We'll still add a few pieces but bot like they were hoping.
I have a question for Bima about Parsons qualifying offer? Wouldn't he qualify for the starter provision and have it increased to $2,875,131 like it is for Isaiah Thomas? That is an enormous bite to our ability to offer enough money to Melo or a top FA. Exercising Parsons' option ($965K) would give us about $19.2M to offer Melo after trading (for no return salary) Asik, Lin, Jones, and either trading #25 or selecting a foreigner who wouldn't count. About $18.7M if we keep and use #25 on a player for right away. That would mean we would take $1.9M per year off of an offer to Melo or other top FA and could really kill the bargaining power.
