You should make the prediction based on the last three games, because Alston, the team's floor leader didn't played the first two games. Regardless how Alston has played in those last three games, but the result is that we won two games handily with him in the lineup, and could have won the 4th game. So we have been actually better than the Jazz with Alston, that's the way you should look at the odds.
Though you are right remember: Odds to flip heads 1 time: 50% Odds to flip heads 10 times: 0.0977% You still have to factor that you are betting on same outcome each time when its a coinflip. But Rockets will win anyways with their 12.5% shot! (now its 25% shot!!!) (I will consider each game in this series a true coinflip !!)
I haven't seen 21, but yeah, I think this is the "Monty Halll Problem." I don't know if it really applies in this case, but you're right, it's fascinating. The NY Times has an awesome explanation of it -- and even an interactive game so you can prove it works. Numbers/stats geeks will enjoy.
Unfortunately, the money involved in betting on professional sports isn't coin flips. Donaghy just got caught. It would be naive to think there aren't forces at work, constantly, to provide an edge to protect the line... something most of us feel in our gut but try to forget so we can enjoy the "sport".
Hey, they won 22 in a row earlier this year. At this point, I'd settle for a mere 14-game winning streak!
