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Rockets and Luxury Tax - How to Avoid; Worth Paying?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by BimaThug, Aug 8, 2009.

  1. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Assuming that the Rockets sign Budinger to a contract at or less than Taylor's, and assuming that they don't sign any other players (besides David Andersen), then absent some larger trade where the team sends out more salary than they take back, the Rockets will have to do the following to get under the luxury tax threshold;

    (1) Waive James White (non-guaranteed contract)
    (2) Trade Brian Cook plus cash to a team that is under the salary cap
    (3) Trade away at least one other player to a team that is under the salary cap (perhaps Dorsey)

    After the Rockets do items (1) and (2), they will still be about $515k over the luxury tax, so Daryl Morey and Les Alexander will need to decide how much some of the players on the Rockets' roster are worth.

    A lot of that decision will actually depend on what OTHER teams do with their rosters. Every move that pushes another NBA team further over the luxury tax means that the "shared revenues" portion (equal to 1/30th of all luxury taxes collected) will likely increase, thereby making it less likely for a team teetering on the edge of the luxury tax to be willing to pay it. And vice versa. Every move that reduces (or eliminates) the luxury tax for another team means that the "shared revenues" portion will likely decrease, thereby making it more likely that a team hovering around the luxury tax would be willing to bite the bullet and just pay the damn tax.

    Some moves that make it more likely that Les will want to avoid paying any luxury tax and will attempt to move another player (see Item 3 above):

    --Cavs trading for Shaq
    --Jazz matching offer sheet for Paul Millsap
    --Magic matching offer sheet for Marcin Gortat
    --Mavs re-signing Jason Kidd
    --Mavs trading for Shawn Marion
    --Lakers re-signing Lamar Odom
    --Hornets trading for Emeka Okafur
    --IF Celtics add Glen Davis (if re-signed to a lucrative deal)
    --IF Knicks add David Lee and/or Nate Robinson (if on lucrative deals, even if only for one year)

    Some moves that make it more likely that Les will take his chances with his players and just pay the tax:

    --Knicks trading Quentin Richardson to the Grizzlies for Darko Milicic
    --Bucks trading Richard Jefferson to the Spurs
    --Nuggets trading Steven Hunter to the Grizzlies
    --IF Jazz find taker for Boozer without taking back much salary
    --IF Celtics let Glen Davis walk
    --IF Knicks let David Lee and/or Nate Robinson walk

    With the luxury tax threshold set this year at $69.92M, it is still very much in doubt what the total luxury tax haul will be for the league. While teams are trying to cut costs now more than ever, the tax threshold has likewise dropped, meaning that tax revenues might be somewhat sustained (contrary to the wishes of many NBA teams).

    So, back to my analysis. Let's just say, for the sake of this discussion, that Joey Dorsey would be the first player on the block if the Rockets were considering getting under the tax and had already lined up items (1) and (2) above. With a salary of $881,820 for next year, Dorsey would end up costing the Rockets:

    Scenario A: If the "shared revenues" come out to $3M per non-tax paying team: $4,396,820
    Scenario B: If the "shared revenues" come out to only $1.2M per non-tax paying team: $2,596,820
    (figures not exact)

    Under Scenario A, Les probably won't want to pay $4.4M just to hang on to Joey Dorsey. However, if the total revenues are much lower (as in Scenario B), then perhaps Les is willing to shell out $2.6M for Dorsey. The problem is, the Rockets won't know exactly what other teams will do and what the resulting luxury tax revenue implications will be; hence, the typical apprehension of many owners teetering at the threshold to just get under the tax and see how big the benefit turns out to be later.

    Of course, much of this analysis changes if the Rockets were to take on any additional salary. Frankly, Morey will have his work cut out for him if he is once again ordered to get the team under the tax threshold. It may just be that Les will just take on the tax, given the financial benefits he will be reaping from the insurance collected on Yao's and T-Mac's contracts this season.

    We'll just have to wait and see.

    G-d, I'm bored.
     
    4 people like this.
  2. worzel gummidge

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    http://www.elperiodico.com/default....ioma=CAS&idnoticia_PK=635697&idseccio_PK=1011
    McGrady + Lowry +/ White (non-guaranteed) → rights to Rubio + Q-Rich + Cardinal + Wilkins + Atkins ($760k guaranteed)

    If T-Wolves are able to sign Hollins their team salary will be at the salary cap figure ($57M). The above deal, not including White, has the T-Wolves taking on an extra $2.3M.

    Rockets save around $5M in total if they waive Atkins. This places them under LT.

    T-Wolves get a star name to help sell tickets or save $10M via insurance money if McGrady misses half the season.

    Rockets would be in the position to offer a package of Brooks + Landry + expiring filler (Q-Rich or Wilkins or Cardinal or Cook) for an elite vet from a third team.
     
  3. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    This cant get any easier Bima, Battier for Jordan and Davis of the clipps. The rockets get a young big who may take over full time duties and a 2 guard in davis that expires at the season's end.
     
  4. Bob Sacamano

    Bob Sacamano Member

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    I appreciate OP's efforts, but I've never understood why people spend so much time fretting about luxury tax. It's one thing to say "We shouldn't sign Player X because it would hurt our salary cap situation, which will hurt the team in the long run." It's another thing to say "We shouldn't sign Player X because, even though it wouldn't hurt our salary cap situation, it just wouldn't be right to spend that much of Les' money."
     
  5. Shroopy2

    Shroopy2 Contributing Member

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    Thats Ricky Davis, people :) Rockets would have to add in another player for the roster space I believe.


    What about Barry instead of Dorsey? Or is there too much difficulty in doing anything with Barry
     
  6. rocketsregle

    rocketsregle Contributing Member

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    I can't see Les taking on the tax. It would be so ironic if he did ... to finally do it on a season the team has no chance at being a contender.
     
  7. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Bob, it's not that I'm very worried about Les having to pay luxury tax. It's that the luxury tax provides a great deal of insight into what an owner is willing to do in the way of personnel moves. If Les wants to pay the tax, then great. But odds are that he isn't all too happy to do so.

    You're right, though, about the salary cap being the REAL key to personnel moves. But since the Rockets are currently WAYYY over the cap, the luxury tax is really all there is to talk about for this season.
     
  8. faraza84

    faraza84 Member

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    if barry retires does that go against luxury tax?
     
  9. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Yes, it does. The team could potentially buy him out at a reduced salary (say, $1M), and that reduced buyout amount would count against the cap.

    However, given that (a) Barry has little incentive to agree to a buyout, (b) waiving him would not get the Rockets appreciably further below the luxury tax threshold, (c) the team has a serious lack of SG depth, and (d) Barry can still be a veteran presence and leader in the locker room for what is now a fairly young team, it probably doesn't make sense to just dump Brent Barry at this time.
     
  10. faraza84

    faraza84 Member

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    thanks for the insight, you truly are one learned man when it comes to the cap and stuff, glad your on this forum.
     
  11. ROXTXIA

    ROXTXIA Contributing Member

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    There is also the chance that McGrady can get shipped out in a deal where the other team takes on a little more salary this year, getting the insurance payments on Tmac to help that out.

    This in exchange for the fact that he'll come off the books of the team that gets him next year...EVEN IF he gets re-signed by that team, it will be for much less than he's making now, hence a savings nevertheless.

    Sorry, since BimaThug admitted to being bored, I'll admit to believing that whatever deal Morey wants to pull might be currently hindered by WHEN a player can be traded (Landry, Sep. 25; Thabeet, Aug. 18; Josh Smith, even if not to keep, Aug. 13, etc). Just like Donte Green(e?) last year.
     
    1 person likes this.
  12. Raven

    Raven Member

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    Whatever deal that Morey makes for Tracy, you can book it right now that it will involve the acquisition of another franchise player, either directly or indirectly. Since the number of franchise players is limited to less than a dozen, if even that many, and since most of them are non trade-able, it's far more likely that Tracy is traded for an expiring contract or players that could be used in trade bait if packaged with someone like Brooks or Ariza. What I'm getting at is that it's highly unlikely that Tracy is traded for an older veteran, and I would be surprised if that happened.
     
  13. Ziggy

    Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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    Yao/McGrady... injuries... insurance paying salary... Les is in the clear....

    Les doesn't care, thats why he pushed for the injury exception, gave Morey reign to buy picks (contracts), etc...
     
  14. choujie

    choujie Member

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    Exactly. All Les needs to do is make Tmac come back as late as possible if he needs to save money.
     
  15. mikol13

    mikol13 Protector of the Realm
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    Personally Bima, I like it when you get "bored". Some people just don't get the importance of this. You bring knowledge that alot of people (no not all of you) just cant offer. It gets my mind thinking about realistic trades, moves and such. How many Yao vs Mac wars can we have. To those of you sleeping on real issues, wake up. There is another side to all of this. It's not as easy as "hey, why don't we trade Cook, Barry and Dorsey for LeBron" :rolleyes: But maybe that's just the mood I'm in
     
  16. JoeBarelyCares

    JoeBarelyCares Contributing Member

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    Excellent thread, as always, Bima. Another factor is the cost to dump a player. Typically, this could be up to $3 million (i.e. pay off the player's salary or more), plus a 2nd round pick. With Les paying on average $2 million per 2nd round pick this past year, the combined costs might make trying to get under the tax threshold too expensive.
     
  17. worzel gummidge

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    Daryl Morey last week:
    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=4693644&postcount=61
     
  18. DreamShakeFTW

    DreamShakeFTW Member

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    I think trading Cook to a team under the cap is a given, probably something like Cook/Dorsey/Cash to Memphis for the right to switch second round picks in 2011 or something. Then send White somewhere for a second rounder and it's done.

    Here's a question: What is the deadline for getting under the luxury tax threshold?
     
  19. leebigez

    leebigez Contributing Member

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    I always bring up that scenerio because the rox can get a 21 yr old big in de andre jordan who at his young age is a shot blocker/rebounder and finisher. Davis is really just a throw in of a guy who can play and only makes 2m. They get a stabilizing guy like shane who can back up thornton and dunleavy loves him. We get a guy who can be our future starting center not only this year, but for years to come if yao never comes back or is limited to 25 mins a night.

    I personally don't think Mcgrady will be traded this year unless somehow the rockets can get Martin. No bosh,no wade, no superstar that people think a team will unload on the rockets. People can dream and have opinions on how badly someone wants that contract, but why would phoenix give up amare for tracy when right now they're probably in the playoffs? Why would toronto give up bosh when they can let his contract expire just like tracy's will? I could go on and on but people will just say they trust its going to happen.
     
  20. pentajigga

    pentajigga Member

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    I think the most important question is : What's the deadline for getting under the luxury tax?
     

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