Rockets acquire Suns picks, return Nets picks to Brooklyn

I’m predicting superstardom for Amen, but I will admit it if he disappoints. We’ve had about 30 games of watching Amen and folks are writing off the possibility of him being a ball handler or decent shooter. For three years, we have seen full seasons of ineptitude in most aspects of Jalen’s game and if someone promotes another player that might remotely challenge Jalen’s status as our future, the cultists start attacking the other Rocket player. That is a Stan or a cultist in my opinion. I have said countless times that I am somewhat optimistic that Jalen has turned a corner. I am roasted by the jaters when I do that.

What I have seen in those thirty games, is that Amen is our best defender, maybe our best rebounder, our second best passer, and our best transition guard. I also saw improvement in his half court ball-handling after his rookie nerves settled. I expect improvement in his shot and also suspect he will get more opportunities to be the main facilitator on offense as the season progresses.

We have the opportunities of being a 4 headed monster in regards to who initiates the offense and that is a good thing. I see Amen’s versatility as something that sets him aside from most players in the league. If I’m wrong and he never becomes a lead guard than I will admit it and be happy to have just another all-star on our team at small forward.

 

Let's do an exercise of a hypothetical:

Imagine it was 2021, and 19 year old Amen Thompson was drafted to the Detroit Pistons at number one and asked to play Cade Cunningham's role.

What would be Amen's first three year stats(counting averages, ts% etc) be around and team winning percentage?


I didn't see a "ball handling improvement" in the season. He went from being ham fisted into a guard role to playing the short roll man and dunker spot man. So as the season went along his ball handling duties were reduced. So I don't know how you got that narrative in your head.

Saying Amen was our second best passer is like saying Jock Landale is our second best passer.

Both Landale and Amen showed similar level of good quick accurate decisions in half court sets in the short roll.

As for being a passer off the dribble against the POA half court defenses? Sengun, FVV and Jalen were all more composed in that regard.

 

I do not think Jabari will demand a max. We could swing three rookie maxes + a large, non-max fourth (Bari).

 

I’ll give you the passing mostly because of lack of opportunities, the improved handle is in the eye of the beholder. Again we are talking about a 30 game sample size, but you seem to acknowledge all the other superlatives I mentioned. Most every observer of Amen’s play has been astonished with his court vision and passing ability. When he is put in a position to have more opportunities in that regard, we can re-visit this conversation. If Jalen becomes a superstar sg and Amen becomes a superstar pg for the rockets, wouldn’t that be ideal? You were calling me a -Stan and I was explaining the difference of someone that believes a player is a future superstar and player only fan. I think we have three players that can become elite. I’m betting that Amen is the most likely.

 

Of course it would be ideal if Amen becomes a superstar pg. Like obviously.

I just think that is the highest end outcome for Amen. His "ceiling". His more likely "upper mid" outcome is a all NBA defender with a Philly Iggy type offensive game. That still is a perennial all-star.

I would say this. Amen's defense is the most likely high end outcome when you compare high end outcomes for Jalen and Amen. Like it's much more likely Amen makes all-nba first team all defense than Jalen Green being a top 5 scorer in the NBA. In that sense Amen is more "safe" but even then in reserved in saying that because Amen's shooting is a genuine major concern.

 

@Hemingway and @Houston77 - Here is the question I think we need to ask ourselves. Do you offer a max contract to a player when no other team has cap space to offer that player a max deal? When I look around this next offseason, I don't see a lot of max dollars available. Is it possible Houston can get a deal on one or both of Jalen or Sengun given that real scenario?

I get the optics of it but there is a bit of a realignment that is already happening in the league due to the new CBA effectively bringing a hard cap to the league. I mean technically it's not a hard cap but it's structured to put teams at a REAL disadvantage both within the draft and with normal league transactions (like FA, exceptions, etc) and I think it's going to change how you will have to build contenders in the future. I think the scenario of a team being able to swing 3 rookie maxes + a large non max fourth are probably unsustainable without a very steady long term pipeline of rookie deal contracts to fill out a roster. Ironically - we are probably one of a few teams who could actually do that but it's going to require signing the right 4 guys, and getting really good future draft asset returns on the guys we don't ultimately retain AND have opportunity to bring real value into the org with those picks.

It's possible, but it's a very narrow path which brings me back to the question I posed at the beginning - that we need to challenge conventional thinking to make that path in the future for Houston as wide as possible. One of two things will be true in the future in the NBA - there won't be as many max deals as the recent past suggests OR there will be similar or more max deals but those deals will be spread out across more teams. The days of "Big 3s" are intentionally being discouraged in the new CBA - I wouldn't expect to see that as frequently as we did in the Lebron era. It really is going to be a new era in the NBA and while the CBA is built to encourage parity across the league, how much players get paid becomes a function of the market and the owners willingness to spend and we don't know how the bottom part of that market(think small market teams like the Kings or Hawks) are going to change their spending habits if this curbs the spending habits of teams like the Warriors, Lakers, Heat, etc to amass talent that no one else can realistically compete with.

 

The thing is, we don't have to offer Sengun or Jalen anything to retain them if we choose because as RFA's, we can match any offer. While my mind wont be made up on this matter until I see how the team and those players in particular play to start the season, with a gun to my head, I am leaning towards letting them both become RFA's and see what offers are there.

 

That is an option for sure.

In the end RFA makes the team more passive but that was going to be the case with all those young prospects.

 

I think Sengun will get the rookie max, no doubt. If Jalen plays like March Jalen for several months, he will get the max. I doubt they let either go to RFA. They will either give them the rookie max or trade them. I think in their mind at some point they will have to make room to give Amen the max. Let’s say Jalen improves a bit and Amen gets a decent shot and Jabari improves a bit. Do they give Jalen the max, knowing they will have to pay Jabari and Amen next. A lot will also depend on the trade opportunities. In my opinion, Jalen has to improve a whole lot or he will be traded.

 

We don't have to think about Amen's contract for two more years. We still have some time to observe his development.

Jabari and Tari are up next a year after Jalen and Alpi. I expect these two guys to go up another step this season, pushing the pressure on the contract consideration of Sengun and Green.

 

I feel pretty confident that if Tari is healthy he will cement his future in Houston. And if Bari takes another leap like last year, he’ll be shooting 37/38% from 3 playing good D, and at his size we aren’t gonna want to let him go. In many ways this is a bigger year for Bari and Tari than it is for Jalen.

 

I agree with this - let the market set the price, then decide if retaining them is allows them to still be a movable asset in the future. The thing with ANY of our guys is they all have potential to be really good, but so far none of these guys are clear #1 guys so the "automatic max contract" scenario doesn't apply to any of our guys yet. The biggest mistake we could make as an org is to lock ourselves into multiple max deals that ultimately aren't true franchise players. I believe you can win with guys like Amen and Jabari - but they aren't necessarily franchise players so we have to tread lightly there until we solidify who our franchise player is so we can build around that guy...and I think we maybe haven't acquired that player yet.

 

I feel that Amen's ceiling is Draymond Green, which is great. But if you can move him for an all-NBA player like Devin Booker, you do that - he's one of the 12 best players in the league.

 

Don't know how his ceiling is Draymond. Amen is just a significantly better athlete by a wide margin and has better wing skills than Draymond. Id say Draymond level of player is a mid level outcome for Amen.

 

If by "wing skills" you mean shooting and passing, Amen would be lucky to reach Draymond's level - Draymond shoots 32% from 3 for his career along with 5.6 assists per game. Also, Draymond was NBA 1st team defense 4 times and 2nd team defense 4 times in addition to being named defensive player of the year in 2017.

If you believe that Draymond's level would be "a mid level outcome for Amen" then you must believe that Amen has LeBron potential. But at 21 years old LeBron was already shooting 32% from 3. At that same age, Amen is throwing up some of the ugliest bricks I've ever seen.

In reality Amen is an undersized 4 who didn't thrive until Sengun's injury ceded that role to him.

 

Amen has better "guard skills". His handle is tighter than Dratmond's ever was. Draymond's playmaking is almost purely through short roll, high post and dho style playmaking.

Amen isn't a great ball handler but definitely at a higher level than Draymond. He can do SOME pnr primary ball handling.

 

Rookie max is more affordable than max. That’s why you can have multiple rookie maxes. If you let them go to RFA you have to match the maximum that is offered. That is why more often than not good young players get extended before they go to RFA. If you let them go to RFA you risk losing them for nothing. The Rockets will either give Sengun and/or Jalen the max at least by the off-season or trade them. It is true we can wait and see for the season. Jabari and Tari will have to be decided the following off-season. Good gm’s, and I think Stone is a good GM, need to think more than one year out. They also have to have maximize flexibility and Stone has been a master at that. For the record, I would not max either until the off-season.

 

I think it's somewhat easier to predict the future outcomes of Tari and JS Jr. They do have some upside, but they are safer players. Jalen is erratic, he might start shining brightly or he may fail to reach expectations. It's a bigger year for Jalen imo.