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Rockets 2015 Adjusted Impact Rating

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by joxford, Jul 14, 2015.

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  1. joxford

    joxford Member

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    Dwight Howard +6.1
    James Harden +5.63
    Josh Smith +4.98
    Trevor Ariza +3.48
    Corey Brewer +3.32
    Terrence Jones +3.16
    Donatas Motiejunas +.56
    Patrick Beverley +.45
    Jason Terry -.39
    Pablo Prigioni -1.75
    Joey Dorsey -3.45
    Kostas Pap -6.18
    Tarik Black -6.23

    Information on how the stat was created and the ratings for all teams in 2014 and 2015 can be found here:
    adjustedimpactrating.weebly.com

    The base equation in this formula is a linear regression with the output being On Court Net Rating (ORTG-DRTG) for each player and the inputs being:
    TS%
    Opponents TS%
    TOV %
    Opponents TOV%
    OREB%
    DREB%

    I can try and answer and questions about the metric
     
    #1 joxford, Jul 14, 2015
    1 person likes this.
  2. Texanasiafan

    Texanasiafan Member

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    How do you convince people to accept that : TJ is a 6X more impactful player than D-Mo?
     
    #2 Texanasiafan, Jul 14, 2015
  3. joxford

    joxford Member

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    You shouldn't look at the scale that way. And TJ missed pretty much all of the rough patch of the season in November-December. D-Mo played heavy minutes during that stretch, playing a lot with Tarik Black and Dorsey, where the team was playing more like an 8-10 seed than a 2 seed. TJ played during mostly favorable stretches of team play. Its up to each person to personally decide how much of that improved team play was due to TJ's return, and how much was other factors like Dwight playing or Smith/Brewer being added to the team
     
    #3 joxford, Jul 14, 2015
  4. HR Dept

    HR Dept Contributing Member

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    Lies, damn lies, and statistics...
     
    #4 HR Dept, Jul 14, 2015
  5. Mirri3000

    Mirri3000 Member

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    Stats are for losers. You keep looking at stats, we will keep trying to get wins.
     
    #5 Mirri3000, Jul 14, 2015
  6. chievous minniefield

    chievous minniefield Contributing Member

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    This thread is really bringing out the Luddites.
     
    #6 chievous minniefield, Jul 14, 2015
  7. kevC

    kevC Contributing Member

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    A CERTAIN STATISTICAL MEASURE DOES NOT ALIGN WITH MY PRECONCEPTIONS AND OBSERVATIONS THEREFORE IT MUST BE WORTHLESS!
     
    #7 kevC, Jul 14, 2015
  8. TexAg713

    TexAg713 Member

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    All this tells me is we need to hold onto JSmoove
     
    #8 TexAg713, Jul 14, 2015
  9. cdrive

    cdrive Contributing Member

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    DATING MODELS BEATS DATA MODELS! - Sir Charles
     
    #9 cdrive, Jul 14, 2015
  10. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    Remember when people asked if the Rockets were better without Dwight?
     
    #10 J Sizzle, Jul 14, 2015
  11. FANfrom86toNow

    FANfrom86toNow Contributing Member

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    Nice...Priceless. Even though Sir Charles actually sucks and kisses donkey's asses.
     
    #11 FANfrom86toNow, Jul 14, 2015
  12. RedDragon01

    RedDragon01 Member

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    You don't convince people that TJ is 6 times more impactful than DMo, because that's not what this metric is telling us.

    While TJ was on the court in games last season, his offensive rating minus his defensive rating was 3.16. While Motiejunas was on the court in games last season, his offensive rating minus his defensive rating was .56.

    Not only are there a ton of differences between the time TJones spent on the court versus DMo, but you're trying to view this metric as a linear graph of quality. If you want to compare the players as a measure of multipliers, use the source numbers for offensive and defensive rating instead.

    This is a case of understanding what the stats tell us, not blinding accepting it and reaching false conclusions about it.
     
    #12 RedDragon01, Jul 14, 2015
  13. bulkatron

    bulkatron Member

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    Right I'm sure Morey is on board
     
    #13 bulkatron, Jul 14, 2015
  14. Camarograna2

    Camarograna2 Contributing Member

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    Owned!

     
    #14 Camarograna2, Jul 14, 2015
  15. Pat

    Pat Contributing Member
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    So what is this stat telling us?
     
    #15 Pat, Jul 14, 2015
  16. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    +/- stats can't be compared using ratios.

    A middling player might have a +/- of 0, and a slightly above average player might have a +/- of +1. It doesn't mean the slightly above average player is infinitely times better than the middling player.
     
    #16 durvasa, Jul 14, 2015
  17. Texanasiafan

    Texanasiafan Member

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    This stat tells you don't just look at the stats, but you need to close your eyes and think.

    Or simply put, just don't look at the stats at all.
     
    #17 Texanasiafan, Jul 14, 2015
  18. Texanasiafan

    Texanasiafan Member

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    OP posting a stats : that includes number and ranking, and without further detailed explanation other than the usage of this stat is for ' impact'.

    So we all understand that Dwight and harden are more impactful player than the like of black, papa, Dorsey. I get that.

    But then when we look at TJ an Dmo who are ranked next to each other and the number obviously had a big gap, what does it tell you?
     
    #18 Texanasiafan, Jul 14, 2015
  19. dharocks

    dharocks Contributing Member

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    You guys miss this part?
     
    #19 dharocks, Jul 14, 2015
  20. Pat

    Pat Contributing Member
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    Point taken. It says that it does adjust for team mates.
     
    #20 Pat, Jul 14, 2015
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