I hung out at my parents house in Clear Lake for Alicia. Everyone lost trees, fences and shingles, but not much else. We think some lil twisters went through since some decent sized (~20-25') trees were sheared off about 4 feet above ground, and the tops were gone. They were in line with the edge of the neighbor's roof which was damaged. For Allen we went to Austin and saw a twister hit the airport while having breakfast.
Rita should be a hurricane tonight - maybe a cat. 2. She is really starting to strengthen. Tracks are still trending westward mainly because of the slight wobble Rita took earlier, but nothing's a given at this point.
People right on the water. Remember, if a cat. 3 hits in the right spot, it will push a LOT of water back up into Clear Lake.
Like El Lago, Nassau Bay...I could see that. I'm most concerned about inland a little. My folks (like most in Clear Lake) live w/i 2 or 3 miles of NASA and you predicted as much as 10' of water. Do you think that would inundate all of CL, or just by the Lake?
Let's hope Rita doesn't become another Gilbert ~ i’m sure some of you remember this monster. ___________ We rode out Hurricane Alicia in Clear Lake - no tornadoes in our area (I think), but much intense wind and rain. No flooding other than minor street -- we lost our fence, a big tree, and a bunch of shingles (enough to need a new roof). The neighborhood as a whole was a wreck, but no houses were lost ~ nothing on that level at all.
Yup. I don't remember who hear took these pictures during that smallish tropical storm back in '03, but if the lake rose this much during a TS, imagine what a Cat 3 or 4 would do. Then going in to the Seabrook Shipyard to check on our boat. I couldn't imagine what a 3 would do to this place. I then had an SUV with a 4 inch lift and 34" tires, and I barely made it down the road through the storm surge. A tropical storm storm surge. Yeah, this storm scares me. A lot.
Behad... he lives in League City. just checked elevations of this area...Houston is at 55' Galveston is listed at 20'
Went to the store tonight. Still saying I'll stick for a Cat 3...leave if it hits Cat 4. Water was going quick...as was bread...peanut butter...stuff like that. The shelves with the large containers of water were completely cleared out. My brother works for a local radio station. They're planning to move operations to Dallas if it's still on this course as of Wednesday. I definitely see the Alicia comparisons. But Alicia didn't have all this time to develop. It basically developed within the Gulf. This thing may be a hurricane before it gets in the Gulf good...may develop to Cat 2 very quickly tomorrow. From then..who knows? It has a lot of time and a lot of water to cover.
Keep in mind that Allison was VERY unique. It was the perfect rain storm. It just sat over central Houston and poured rain on us for 12 hours. Hurricanes don't do that. This thing will hit land, be windy and raininy and be gone within 12 hours. No doubt we'll get flooding, but Allison was very, VERY unique in the way it produced huge amounts of rain in a short period of time in a very specific area of town. Cool pic by the way.
Rocketman95 and Buck Turgidson, since you guys are from around here, how have we in Katy faired during the floods of 2001 and 2002? I wasn't here then; I moved out here in 2002 early in July. I don't think it's "flood area", but Katy must be prepared, since it's developed and newer, I think.
I'm in Huntsville at Sam Houston State but my parents live in Webster. From looking at pictures of our home during Alicia, we took some damage but nothing to major. I've talked to some people in Huntsville and they said that during Alicia they flooded and didn't have power for a week. I'll probably be staying here while my family goes to College Station to stay with my sister. Either way, I'm praying this thing doesn't do too much damage, wherever it lands.
again..it isn't flooding that you need to be concerned with out there. it's the wind...and loss of power...and all that. west houston/katy did very well during allison, relative to the rest of the city. but that's not the scenario we're preparing for here.
yeah..a week or so is about right. my house had all kinds of damage during alicia...but power was restored to our neighborhood about a week after the storm. there were TONS of fallen trees during alicia. it had rained a bunch before and it made the ground super-soft...so by the time the winds hit, they were just ripping up trees left and right. i cut down a 40 year old that was in my backyard just about 3 weeks ago. it was struck by lightning a few years back and dying from the inside out...just occurred to me to get rid of it. so glad i did, now.
I know it's not about flood. I am still wondering how good this Barker Reservoir helps the rest of the area. There's a huge border around it. Still, I am really NOT scared of the winds. I don't know why... like I am hoping it will lose strength, maybe?
I have a hard time looking at a blank map and seeing where cities are, so I created this little Texas map superimposed over the latest NHC forecast track. Not the prettiest thing to look at, but it kinda gives you an idea of the projected track and how quickly it diminishes after landfall.
I've scoped out a few places, so in the event of a major hurricane I know where to go to pick up my new plasma screen tv when all of the looting begins.
The latest NHC stuff is out. Same basic model tracking guidance. Interestingly enough, the GFDL appears to have been a bit aggressive in its forecasting of a major hurricane by the time the storm reaches the Keys. It still could, but it is looking less likely. More interestingly is that it seems to now be in better agreement with the other intensity models later in the period. It shows a rapid intensification and then a gradual weakening of the storm right up until landfall. All are still forecasting landfall as a category 3 around 105 knots (120mph).
If all holds it would hit late Friday night, very early Saturday morning. The good thing is most of the people will be off of work for the weekend. The bad thing is I hate storms at night when you can't see what's happening.
