i noticed on the chronicle's site, that the newest track they have has an earlier landfall...before saturday. i guess late, late friday night. assuming it keeps moving forward at this increased speed, of course.
Yeah, it has picked up a little forward speed. We'll have to see. Intensification has also upped a tad to 105 knots (about 121mph) by landfall - a moderate cat 3 probably similar to Alicia. The latest forecast models (not the one's on Wunderground.com which are behind by a few hours) have split with two aiming at the south Texas coast and two towards the Texas-Louisiana border. One other is still aiming right about at Galveston. A LOT will be determined in the next 36-48 hours as we start to see just what kind of impact that high pressure area will have on the hurricane.
Good reads: http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/gulfcoast.htm http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm
My guess is that Jeff is like myself in that at every major update on NHC, the first thing he goes to is the "Discussion." (I wonder if.....like myself.....he'll be waking up every morning this week at 4:00 a.m. just to catch that update) {I think it might be a sickness}
Major Hurricanes to Hit The United States - 1900 - 2003 Here is the one I rode out in Clear Lake City :s 31) ALICIA. Aug 18, 1983 Galveston, Texas. 28.41 inches - MSW 115 MPH
Gas is down to about $2.54 a gallon now but because of Rita fear crude prices rose over $4 a barrell today and so the slowly decreasing gas prices I've seen will probably begin heading upward again.
Actually, there is an anticyclone in the region which will decrease upper-level shear, so no dice with that helping us. Temperatures in the gulf are still warm, but, like I said, we are late in the season. It's pretty rare we make it to the letter 'R'.
Also, the Gulf is still a bit cooler than it would be because of Katrina. She sucked up lots of the heat energy in the water, and churned up the rest with the cooler layers under the surface.
Images of Alicia are surprisingly rare ~ this was the best I could put together. I was living in Clear Lake at the time - what a mess, but nothing catastrophic.
By the way, if you want a GREAT blog on these things, check Jeff Masters' blog on Weather Underground... http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html He has a detailed explaination of why surface waters are cooler and what that means for storm intensification. He also, like me, has his money on the storm hitting east of us as a cat. 3.
Agreed, but this one may take a more southerly track and miss a lot of the cooler waters. This one will be a monster regardless. DD
Actually, that's incorrect. The warmest eddy currently in the Gulf is a spot about 150 miles across to the south of New Orleans. Current forecast track takes this just to the south of that eddy with the coolest waters actually between that eddy and the Texas coast. Even if it did hit that warmer water, it would hit cooler waters almost immediately after. Even the most aggressive forecasts are putting this at a lower end cat. 4, but most of the analysts think that is too aggressive and a cat. 3 is much more likely. Still a dangerous storm to be sure, but not close to what Katrina was, which was a borderline 4/5 storm.
Just got off the phone with my dad in Lake Jackson (due south on SH 288 from Houston). He is most likely coming up to Dallas, and will let everyone know, or advise them, to head north as well. I hope Texas doesn't have as many stay back like they did in N.O., LA. Pray. Really.
will this storm be big enough to do a mandatory evacuation if it hits houston? i know it is still early but what are the predictions?
