I agree with most everyone else. The potential for tragedy was pretty high with this storm. A hundred miles west and a little less shear and this thing could have come into Houston as a Cat 4 hurricane. The damage would have been pretty bad. Alot of people will not understand how close it was.
I just got back to Houston driving from Shreveport. We took the back way through Jasper and Beaumont. I can't begin to explain the total devastation that I saw in Jasper and in Beaumont. Thousands of pine trees snapped in half like twigs, and broken power lines for miles. We really got lucky that Rita took that turn to the east.
Agreed we were extremely fortunate. It's just that Dr. Neil and a couple of others should have indicated we were going to be fortunate when it became obvious. That way, people wouldn't have fled right into the teeth of the storm in by going northeast when they would have been much safer staying put.
So you think the people that evacuated because a Cat 5 storm was heading right for us were wrong? I didn't evacuate, but I sure thought about it. If people felt the need to get their family out of town because this monster was heading right for us, then they are not part of the problem. You'd be singing a different tune if this thing would have continued on its path for us and blown right through your house. That email was not funny, it was dumb.
Here are some pictures that I took during my trip. This is a picture of 59 during the evacuation right outside of Cleveland. As you can see, there is no traffic what so ever going south toward houston... This one was taken around 3:00AM about 20 miles outside of Lufkin. By then they had opened up the southbound lanes for northbound traffic. Still a sea of brake lights... The rest are pictures of what I saw today driving through Jasper and Beaumont.
They'll evacuate...only this time it'll be at the very last moment and they'll get blasted in their cars on the I-45 parking lot.
Thursday morning, it became likely the storm was going to curve north. People in Galveston/Chambers/Brazoria/etc counties still should have evacuated. People in Houston (perhaps excepting those close to the ship channel) and westward should have stayed put. Almost on the hour, Channel 2 made it clear things were looking better and better for the city. Not only would it curve, it was also weakening. (I even told my wife on Wednesday if it's a Cat 5 72 hours away it almost definitely wouldn't hit as a Cat 5). Since the outlook very obviously kept improving, there was no need to leave. If things had been handled this way, the Brazoria County judge wouldn't have blasted Mayorbill for helping to clog the roadways unnecessarily. Honestly, I woke up Thursday morning thinking there was a 75% chance I would evacuate. No joke. On the other hand, if the storm had somehow stayed a Cat 5 and all forecasts continued to show Rita coming straight at or just south of Galveston, I would have left on Thursday along with the rest of town and would have been in Austin when the storm hit. After it hit, hearing the stories of people who fled right into Rita's path makes me even more angry. Fortunately, nobody died as a result. My point to Dr. Neil: Just give us the truth. We don't need your spin. Adults can make their own judgements based on facts.
Dude. It is a meteorlogical imposiibiblity for a Cat 5 to hit Houston. The coastal water is too shallow and too cool too far out for a storm to sustain that strength coming through Galveston. What makes me mad is that Drs. Frank, Billingsly, Howenstein, Radar, and all of the other "scream fire in a crowded theater" people KNOW this to be true and their hysteria creates a fervor in the simple minded lemmings within the public. If they would report the facts and not just the hyperbole and doomsday scenarios then the lemmings would not be on the freeway for 14 hours, fleeing the safety of Houston for, ironically, the exact doomsday scenario they are foolishly fleeing. This might be better in the D&D.
I don't really watch Houston news so I don't have an opinion on whatever subject you are debating, but you should really ease up on the "simple minded" lemmings bull****. People who work 8 or 9 hours a day on top of caring for their children dont have time to research tropical systems over the internet and have to rely on what they get from the local media. It doesnt make them dumb, just busy. If you arent aware of the hectic lives people live then you are the one with the simple mind, and worst than that you are arrogant about it too.
are you joking? even if we presume that it was obvious that this storm was going to get down to 120mph if it hit just west of galveston imagine the damage it would have done on houston. plus all the forecasters always said this would be a 3/4 when it hit. no one thought it would remain a 5. secondly im sorry but i'll take dr frank's word over yours. he only served as the director of nhc for a decade. will rita be the boy who cried wolf for many houstonians? perhaps. but everytime you think of rita remember katrina too. hopefully we'll have better plans that'll ensure that no one has to suffer in that heat and certainly that no one dies on the road. but please. and instead of b!tching about forecasters we should be thanking the lord as well as drawing up better plans. im sure all the forecasters would rather be right.
Have you people not seen the pictures of Lake Charles, Port Arthur or Beaumont? We got lucky because it shifted. Simple as that.
As possibly the only Rita "victim" able to currently post (or at least I think I am the only one), I wasn't really offended by Chance's post. However, I also didn't find it funny (mainly because it wasn't very humorous, although the picture was pretty good) . But I can tell you had you been with me and watched the 100 mph winds drop an oak on my parents neighbor's house while they were still inside, or the 70 ft. Oak and 50 ft pine it pushed over like they were rooted in pudding, or even been with me on a midnight drive from Jasper to Livingston on Hwy. 190 as we evacuated for the second time because we were out of drinkable water, you'd not take evacuation orders lightly. When you drive 55 miles and it takes 3 hours because you spend most of the time in lanes other than yours (including 3 times completely off the road) because the road is covered in trees and power lines, it changes your perspective. When you drive through three towns and the only light you see is your headlights (we actually didn't see a light powered by normal electricity until we passed Splendora on 59, or about 100 miles into the trip), you start to get a sense of how valuable some of the things you take for granted can be. I may get to see my house (or what is left of it) on Wednesday. I may get electricity in 2 weeks (or so they tell me). And I may get to go back to work in 3 weeks (according to our Superintendent). But my family and I got out safely ahead of the storm (although in hindsight we didn't go quite far enough) and that is all that really matters.
I don't know where you get your information, but this is a complete factual inaccuracy. The water along the Texas gulf coast is no more shallow and no more cool than the water along the Florida gulf coast where It is true that it is RARE for a category 5 storm to make landfall. It has only happened three times in 100 years. But, that does not make it a meteorlogical impossibility. And let's assume for the moment that it is impossible. It is not even close to impossible that a category 4 with winds in excess of 140mph could reach the coast of Texas. Again, while rare, it is far more likely than a category 5 and has actually happened before - twice in Galveston alone! In fact, the second most powerful hurricane on record hit Galveson in 1900 and Carla (in 1961) had winds over 140mph at landfall. It's one thing to blame the media for over-hyping a situation. They often do. But, don't discount the power of a category 4 hurricane or suggest that we can't get a category 5. One is irresponsible, the other is just incorrect.
Thanks. I wish I had put money on it now. Just FYI, it wasn't a guess. All season long, model guidance has overestimated the strength of high pressure systems and weakness of storms early in forecast periods and overestimated the same late in forecast periods. In Katrina, all the models had the storm going on shore in the Florida panhandle as a category 1 or 2 storm because they overestimated the strength of high pressure extending from Texas over Louisiana and the effect passing over Florida's land mass would have. Later in the forecast, they underestimated the high pressure system and actually had Katrina tracking into western Louisiana. With Rita, same thing. Too far west and south in early predictions with overestimations of high pressure. Too weak with overestimations of wind shear and cool water. Late, underestimating the strength of the high pressure in central Texas and underestimating the wind shear near the coast. I figured it was a safe bet that they had it too far to the west when initial reports had it going to Matagorda (back when it was in the Florida straights). Still, a LOT of guesswork.
Agreed completely. My beef is with some in the media and with Mayorbill. If on Thursday the consensus was a Cat 4 was hitting Galveston, even I would have left. But Thursday morning it became evident Rita was probably going to be a Cat 3 and a hit on Galveston was unlikely.
Last time I checked it's not the meteorologists job to order a mandatory or voluntary evacuation. The mayors and governor did. I don't know ANY forecaster that can precisely pinpoint where the hurricane is going to hit 4, 3, 2 or even 1 day in advance. That is why they put up the famous "cone of uncertainty". Again, it wasn't really all that far away from hitting Galveston when you think about it. You are overblowing their "hysteria". I didn't watch a lot of Dr Neil, but I have a hard time believing he was "hysterical" at any point. Also, I remember most of them saying, days in advance, that it wouldn't likely hit the coast at Cat 5 strength, and it didn't. That doesn't matter, I'm fleeing if anything over a 2 is headed my way. And if the hurricane would have hit here that wouldn't have changed the traffic jams regardless. I'm hoping people learned a lot from this and hope many will invest in a road map and learn to use it. There are alternative ways out of town other than I-45 north. I'm beginning to think you and your brother have been in one too many slapfests.
You make a great point about the mayor and governor evacuating people... I thought the email was funny and other fold didn't. I just didn't understand why people were so touchy. Wasn't there just one death...in Mississippi or something caused from the storm? In fifteen years when we look back at Rita we will remember salivating weathermen and traffic. We will remember Texans trying to show off to Louisianans about how well we could react to a hurricane. Those of us that stayed will remember Houston as aghost town. And we will all remember being wrong.
