1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

[RITA] Storm in the Atlantic to Watch for Texans

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by Xenon, Sep 18, 2005.

  1. Pole

    Pole Houston Rockets--Tilman Fertitta's latest mess.

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 1999
    Messages:
    8,568
    Likes Received:
    2,735
    You should be fine....unless there is a tornado or catastrophic flooding (neither of which can be predicted right now). Your house is built to withstand 3 seconds (much longer than you think) gusts of 110 miles an hour. If you get scared, you can wade over to my house and huddle with my wife. I'll be on the porch sipping Scotch.

    http://www.tdi.state.tx.us/wind/maps/brazoria.html
     
  2. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 1999
    Messages:
    22,412
    Likes Received:
    362
    Looking at the latest satellite images, it appears Rita has completed her eyewall replacement cycle and has a well-formed eye around her. Her last northward wobble - and we'll have to wait for coordinates from the NHC in about an hour - has her now basically SW of the area just east of Port Aurthur between there and Sabine Pass. Her westward wobble appeared to be minor and she is back on a northwesterly track.

    I am going to bet that her wind strength has increased a bit and her central pressure dropped a bit since the last report given that she looks better organized now. Over the next 12 hours leading up to landfall, she should continue to gradually decrease in intensity. The last model had her at 120mph sustained winds at the eyewall at landfall.

    To me, movement appears to be slightly west of north rather than straight northwesterly, but it's hard to tell if that is just a wobble or a consistent pattern.
     
  3. droxford

    droxford Member

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2001
    Messages:
    10,598
    Likes Received:
    2,131
    Jeff, you missed your calling
     
  4. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 1999
    Messages:
    22,412
    Likes Received:
    362
    Nah, just a hobby. A geeky hobby, but a hobby. :)

    It's like photography. I love taking pictures but I'm not really interested in shooting for a living...unless it's for Playboy. :D
     
  5. m_cable

    m_cable Member

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2002
    Messages:
    9,455
    Likes Received:
    73
    Not true. It seems like he's found his true calling.... keeping Clutchfans informed about all weather crisises.
     
  6. emjohn

    emjohn Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2002
    Messages:
    12,132
    Likes Received:
    567
    Winds picking up in Houston (Med Center area), dark blue clouds starting to cover us. Pretty clear rain's about to come.

    Game on!

    Evan
     
  7. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 1999
    Messages:
    22,412
    Likes Received:
    362
    Winds are sustained around 20mph out here in Montgomery with gusts to around 30. I can still see some blue sky and sun peeking through, but that will change soon enough.
     
  8. codell

    codell Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2002
    Messages:
    19,312
    Likes Received:
    715
    Jeff,

    Whats the easiest email addy to reach you at right now?
     
  9. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 1999
    Messages:
    22,412
    Likes Received:
    362
    Send it through jbalke@tworoadsmedia.com but post when you do. I'm checking email every few hours, but checking the BBS more often.
     
  10. Cohen

    Cohen Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 1999
    Messages:
    10,751
    Likes Received:
    6
    Newest report per TWC: 930 mb, 125 mph, moving NW @ 12 mph
     
  11. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 1999
    Messages:
    22,412
    Likes Received:
    362
    The new NHC update should be out momentarily. Interesting that Wunderground.com has the latest tracking map showing Sabine Pass at the dead center of the landfall cone. Southern Galveston Island is now out of the cone for the first time.
     
  12. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 1999
    Messages:
    22,412
    Likes Received:
    362
    Just looking at the latest discussion and they feel the eyewall replacement cycle was the primary reason for the decrease in intensity and that now the hurricane will probably diminish only slightly before landfall making landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border as a category 3 hurricane with winds near 105 knot or about 120mph.

    This would seem to be confirmed by satellite imagery that shows a weakened but still fairly symetrical storm that is getting beaten up pretty good by wind shear.

    This shift slightly to the east - and I caution that this is only assuming a shift to the east around Sabine Pass and isn't any kind of guarantee - will probably mean a decrease of about 10mph in sustained wind speed in the Houston area reducing winds in central Houston north to Conroe from projected previous estimates of 65mph to around 55mph.

    Obviously, we have a ways to go. We have about 12 hours before Rita makes landfall and we'll have to see just what happens. Any slight shift to the left will change things for us. We aren't out of the woods yet.
     
  13. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2002
    Messages:
    59,079
    Likes Received:
    52,748
    What a day -- I volunteered and worked the 211 line today (6-3) at the OIG office -- only took Hurricane info/emergencies today of course. It is unbelievable how many people are stranded on the side of the road ~ especially on I-10 right where the hurricane is heading. They have suspended the fuel trucks and are now just sending buses to pick people up -- you must leave everything behind. A crazy scenario is unfolding.

    ****
     
  14. Saint Louis

    Saint Louis Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 1999
    Messages:
    4,260
    Likes Received:
    0
    What part of I-10 are people stranded on still? If there are people on I-10 between Baytown and Lake Charles, they are in deep doodoo.
     
  15. Luckyazn

    Luckyazn Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2003
    Messages:
    4,375
    Likes Received:
    68
  16. sabirk

    sabirk Member

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 1999
    Messages:
    494
    Likes Received:
    2

    Man, this may be a Texas storm but Louisana is getting screwed. :eek:
     
  17. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Atomic Playboy
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2002
    Messages:
    59,079
    Likes Received:
    52,748

    Lots of folks are stranded along that stretch of IH ~ so many calls I took today were people wanting gas.

    "Where can I get gas?"

    "When will they bring me gas?"

    People are going to freak when it starts raining on them and they're stuck on the freeway. They're also going to freak when a bus pulls up and say, "get on and leave your car, belongings, and that big dog."
     
  18. PhiSlammaJamma

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 1999
    Messages:
    29,955
    Likes Received:
    8,038
    And now its GREEN!! Run, swim, paddle for your lives!
     
  19. Baqui99

    Baqui99 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2000
    Messages:
    11,495
    Likes Received:
    1,231
    Fire a warning shot, and see if you can spook it.
     
  20. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2003
    Messages:
    48,988
    Likes Received:
    19,925
    Still here in Beaumont guys. Thanks for all the thoughts and prayers. It's starting to get ugly here. Real ugly. The before and after pictures I'm taking should be interesting.
     

Share This Page