Depends on how you look at it. Everyone is soooo freaked out about Katrina, that they bailed outta here. Time will tell if this helps us or hurts us the next time. If Houston gets a mandatory evacuation every three years, people will stop listening. As for me? My week is shot. I've got business to FedEx (they're all closed now, also), my trip to Memphis to see my son looks pretty bleak, and every freaking thing in this city is closed. If this storm doesn't do some damage to Houston, there's gonna be some 'splaining to do.
While they aren't taking a direct hit, it doesn't look good for New Orleans again. http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/hurricanes/wrf-rita.shtml
Makes sense. Hopefully people won't become desensitized to hurricanes. Good luck getting to your son.
I just called Continentals 800 number...i have been on hold for 1 hour and 10 minutes so far....i have memorized their automated comercials.
Another update: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html "We continue to live history as this incredible Hurricane Season of 2005 unfolds more stunning surprises. Rita has peaked in intensity as the third strongest hurricane of all time, with a pressure of 897 mb and 175 mph winds. She is on the decline now, as the 11am hurricane hunter mission found a pressure of 913 mb, and increase of 5 mb in just 3 hours. The hurricane hunters also found concentric eyewalls of 17 and 55 nautical miles in diameter. All these signs indicate that Rita will continue to weaken today as her inner eyewall collapses and an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Rita is about to leave the vicinity of a warm eddy of Gulf water called the Loop Current that has been aiding her intensification. In addition, 10 knots of shear has developed on her south side, thanks to the fact that the upper-level high pressure system that was providing such excellent outflow for Rita has now shifted to the southeast of the storm. All these signs point to a substantial weakening trend for Rita that will continue through Friday and probably reduce her to a Category 4 hurricane. The GFDL forecast model and NHC predict that this weakening trend will continue until landfall Saturday, when Rita will be a Category 3 hurricane. Lower heat content water and continued shear are expected to cause this weakening. While this is cause for some relief, Rita, like Katrina did, will still bring to the coast a storm surge characteristic of a much stronger hurricane. A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 60 - 80 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles. Wind damage will be severe, and Houston can expect a hazardous rain of glass from its high rise building like was experienced during Hurricane Alica in 1983. If the eye passes just west of Galveston Bay, the storm surge will push 1 - 3 of water into some of Houston's eastern suburbs, such as Deer Park. Current buoy measurements NOAA buoy 42001 measured sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 78 mph, and 34 foot waves at 10am CDT. At the time, the buoy was located 75 miles WNW of Rita. This evening at 5pm CDT, Rita should make a very close pass by this buoy. I expect waves of 50 - 70 feet will impact the buoy, and huge swells from Rita are already starting to pound the Gulf Coast. A time series plot of the wind and pressure from buoy 42001 is worth checking out. Where will Rita go? The computer models made a modest shift eastwards this morning, calling for a landfall between Galveston and the Texas/Louisiana border. The Hurricane Center shifted their landfall point as well, and now go with the model consensus. The models have been flip-flopping frequently, and it is not unreasonable to suppose that they will shift the landfall point 50 or so miles further west again this tonight. However, a landfall within 100 miles of Galveston seems to be the the best call. Landfall will still occur sometime Saturday, but this may be afternoon instead of morning, as the storm is moving slower than before. Most of the models now indicate that steering currents will weaken and Rita will stall and sit in place for several days once it moves inland. This will result in severe flooding problems for wherever Rita stalls, as 10 - 30 inches of rain could fall in the affected region. As is usually the case when steering current get weak, the model forecasts of Rita's motion are highly unreliable. Rita may stall over the Dallas area, or central Louisiana, or Oklahoma or Arkansas. It's too early to tell. Finally, on Tuesday, Rita's remnants are forecast to lift out to the north."
my brother just called, he is back home in Houston...he left at 4 am, and traveled 20 miles in 7.5 hours. he gave up and headed back home and will try later tonight. he said there are cars stalled from overheating and running out of gas all over the freeways.
Yeah it has been..i finally got a hold of them they said listen to us as of right now the flights are still going through. Even though they are supposed to stop at 12 pm they are saying that even though my flight is at 5:30 that they are still on schedule. Which i dont know what to believe. They said i can go ahead and go up there early and check the stand by flights that are leaving in the morning and see if anyone doesn't show for the filght.. Damn...what to do.
I live a half mile from the mandatory evacuated Friendswood, and I just made my decision. I'm not going anywhere. I just went and bought a bottle of 15 year old Scotch (they wouldn't let me into Wal-mart, but you can always count on the liquor store), and I'm dragging my rocking chair back out to my porch. I'm gonna watch the little bit of wind and rain we get Saturday from the comfort of my own home. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html HURRICANE RITA BEGINS EYE WALL REPLACEMENT LANDFALL FURTHER EAST - GREATEST THREAT HIGH ISLAND,TX TO CAMERON, LA POST LANDFALL MAJOR FLOOD THREAT Latest RECON data and satellite imagery confirm that an eye wall replacement cycle has begun, and this has led to some further weakening in the storm. The storm is located near 25.4N/88.8W -- and the central pressure has risen to 915mb. In addition, the 18NM diameter eyewall has just 'opened up' to the SE, revealing the developing outer eyewall with a 45NM diameter. The MAX winds have also eased back to around 155mph -- a borderline CAT 5 intensity. Even more telling, the thermal eyewall temp gradient of the INNER eye has dropped to 4°C indicating the inner wall will soon collapse entirely, and the outer ring of convection will become the primary eye wall. Once that completes (in 2-hrs) - the new , wider diameter eyewall will begin shrinking down again, and will most likely lead to some re-intensification of the wind speeds - if not the pressure itself. That would likely occur overnight. Beyond this cycling phase, the new GFS 12Z model run continues to show landfall further east - now along the TX./LA border. This dramatically increases the potential storm surge threat for southwest LA, while reducing the threat to Galveston. Whether or not this is just a 'flip-flop' in the track evolution is simply unknowable -- but the initialization data shows the high pressure ridge to the north weakening as forecast by the GFS, and I'm inclined to believe it. Accordingly, from my perspective, the highest probability; for landfall, lies from near High Island, Texas (about midway between Galveston and Port Arthur) eastward to Cameron, LA. If landfall reaches Port Arthur or a bit east - hurricane force winds will reach eastward to Grand Isle, LA. -- and the storm surge would shift accordingly -- with a 7-10ft storm surge over to Grand Isle, and 5-8 feet across the Mississippi Delta. Before accepting this further east scenario we will at least need to see all the 18Z model runs show this change, and then confirm it with the evening, 00Z run. Special upper air surveillance missions are planned for the evening model runs -- and this should add greatly to the accuracy of the track forecast. Beyond the issue of the actual landfall point -- for the past 2 days, the global models have been forecasting the re-development/intensification of the high pressure ridge over the central U.S. -- and then expands it towards the Gulf coast. What this means, is that after Rita moves inland Saturday morning, it will gradually slow down, then stall out over west central Louisiana - and then is forecast to drift SOUTHWESTWARD towards Houston by Monday. This type of motion would lead to extreme rainfall totals across much of Louisiana and the east- southeast areas of Texas following landfall. Tremendous, life threatening flooding could result from portions of Louisiana southwestward to the Houston area. Storm rainfall totals could easily exceed 20" in some locations. The next full update will be this evening -- with a brief storm status update around 4PM.
WTF?! An I looking at a current ARW? It predicts landfall just west of Galveston Bay. Tell me it's old or wrong.
he left at 4 am, and traveled 20 miles in 7.5 hours. he gave up and headed back home and will try later tonight. he said there are cars stalled from overheating and running out of gas all over the freeways. I left at 4 am and gave up at 7 am. My last three miles on I-10 took me three hours. I could not imagine taking 12 hours to get to Katy, through the heat of the day, breathing car fumes, risking running out of gas, and no bathroom break. I might try again Friday night if the traffic has cleared. I am not hopeful. I do have a solid plan B (besides Rita hitting Sabine Pass). Rice U is giving shelter to its professors and staff. I am lucky in this regard.
The models and predictions are all fine and dandy, but none of them are 100% accurate. I would suggest everyone prepare for the worst and if the worst doesn't happen, then count your blessings. My sister and her family were going to go stay with her in-laws family in San Antonio. They left at 9:30 PM last night and entered I-10 at Kirkwood. They turned around at 11:30 PM after only making it to Fry Road.
It's certainly looking better than it was this time yesterday. Still not out of the woods by any means, but the new forecasts are enouraging. I guess we'll know more tonight.
Please be careful out there folks... -------------- Rita Could Stall and Dump 25 inches of Rain Inland 15 minutes ago After Hurricane Rita makes landfall, it may stall out and dump unprecedented amounts of rain well inland, forecasters now say. Ed Rappaport, Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center, today called the potential for the storm to stall his No. 2 concern, after the more immediate threat of coastal devastation. Rita could dump up to 25 inches of rain on some inland locations, Rappaport said. Major flooding could result, he said. Dallas is likely to be west of the worst of it. Rita's path is guided by other major weather patterns, including an area of high pressure that's currently centered over northern Texas and Oklahoma. http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20050...TiCbpwv;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl
Comparing the NOAA maps from 10 AM to current accuweather satelite images, the storm is moving to the north of its predicted track. The storm is always going to want to curl in a clockwise direction. Unless there's a resurgance of the high pressure front over the SE US, I think the eye may actually cross in LA.
