This is the 10 pm 5-day prediction. The storm is at the same place it was at 4pm Central. I see no movement. I will try again at 10 tomorrow. If it moves north, it will go RIGHT OVER HOUSTON. RIght now, as my superimposed image shows in my previous post, it goes RIGHT OVER KATY. I am just hoping it keeps moving NORTH and it completely goes a little EAST. I hope this 10 am - 4 pm - 10 pm comparison helps.
Okay, what kinds of winds can a typical 1 story wood & brick houston home take before ity folds? Before the roof flies off? I don't think it's a good idea to leave for Austin anymore. My parents are staying and I don't wanna leave them alone. This sucks dong.
OMG traffic.com says that on 290 it takes 310 minutes to go from 610 to Mueschke! Anyone have an idea on a faster way to Austin?
Thanks Glyde, your post made me cheer up a bit. The news is full of negative stuff, its playing with my emotions.
Here is something else to consider, when will it be high tide at Galveston. Here at the tides from Friday to Sunday. Tides for Galveston Bay Entrance, south jetty starting with September 23, 2005. Day High Tide Height Sunrise Moon Time % Moon /Low Time Feet Sunset Visible F 23 Low 1:52 PM 0.1 7:08 AM Set 12:59 PM 72 23 7:14 PM Rise 11:07 PM Sa 24 High 1:18 AM 2.6 7:08 AM Set 1:58 PM 63 24 Low 3:02 PM 0.3 7:13 PM Rise 11:58 PM Su 25 High 2:27 AM 2.6 7:09 AM Set 2:51 PM 53 25 Low 4:20 PM 0.3 7:12 PM The storm will be coming ashore at high tide. So the storm surge will have an extra 2.6 feet of water.
Just for a small point of reference...my in laws live down South of here and got hit by a smaller hurricane 2-3 years ago. I don't remember its name, but I think it came ashore as a Cat 1 or 2 near Point Comfort off of Matagorda Bay. They had wind around 90-110 nail their house. They had very minor damage...lost some shingles and a basketball goal...but other than that...nothing. They live in a smaller one story brick home. Even if the storm nails Houston...you won't be getting much more than 90-110 MPH wind in MOST of Houston. Windows, trees, shingles, ect can be damaged by wind...but things won't be flattened unless they are in the storm surge area. So for us North siders...things might get a little hairy for a couple of hours, but most people should be able to ride it out. I know the whole mantra "better safe than sorry," but I think there are many people leaving in parts of Houston that don't really need to that are clogging up the ways for people that really need to get out of Houston.
My mom and sister were on their way up here to Austin at about 3pm - 11pm. It took them almost 4 hours to get from Seabrook/Clear Lake to 610 and 290. My mom said that she could finally go 50mph or so as she was reaching Giddings. Pretty heavy traffic. My Dad is still stuck in Houston somewhere.
This is driving me crazy. It's like there's conflicting info. I'm watching channel 2 and they say if you live in a 100 yr flood zone, you should leave. I live in one and like one house down from a bayou (which hasn't flooded once in the 20 or so years I've lived here). But then on 11 they are like there won't be enough rain to flood anything inland.
We are leaving for Austin around 4 this morning, no looking at Uprising's it looks like I will see some crap thier too, damn, can't win for trying.
I definitely don't know any specific numbers, but there is a big difference between houses of different decades and construction techniques... -solid or open roof sheathing -plywood/osb sheathing or structural panel sheathing or cross braced walls One of the big things is that you don't want the windows being broken out because if the wind is flowing through the house, that will really increase the uplift on the roof. Building codes require windows near the coast be projectile tested to prevent this exact thing as much as is reasonable. BTW, good luck to everyone in Houston, Pasadena, Freeport, Lake Jackson, Galveston, and everyone else in the path of Rita. I'm taking in somewhere between 2 and 6 people this weekend in my 450 SF apartment in Austin. Luckily the apartment below me is empty, so the landlord is allowing us to put some air mattresses in there to accomodate. It should be a party.
The latest run of the UKMET turns the storm more sharpley east where it hits the Texas Lousiana border. That would suck for them, but less people overall would be put in harm's way, and it would certainly be good for Houston. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_model.html
That was run nearly 8 hours ago. I'd think we would have heard more about it on the news if it was a real possibility.
latest models.... looks like that jog to the north has been reflected in the models.. My wife is getting antsy...she wants out...tomorrow evening...unless we get some good news as it gets closer and the predictions get more reliable.
