Just reading a few places... Model guidance is actually to the north and east of Houston at this point putting the storm around the Texas/Louisiana border and bringing Rita on shore early morning Saturday. The NOAA track, as usual, has shifted only slightly to the right of previous tracks. NOAA always takes a more cautious approach to shifts in the model guidance. The storm appears to be growing in size and could be a substantial storm in terms of sheer size which means more areas will be effected by it and even if it goes on land 100 miles to the east of us, we could still get substantial wind and rain. A lot apparently will depend on the trough of low pressure heading out way from the central US. The stronger that is, the more it pushes the high pressure system along the northern gulf coast to the east and the less westerly track the storm takes as well as the more of a northward turn it will take late in the forecast period. Remember that when Katrina first formed in the Atlantic, forecast models had it going in from eastern Louisiana to the Florida panhandle with the NOAA pointed around Pensacola. This tracking started at northen Mexico and is now around the upper Texas coast. More shifts appear likely at this point. I made the prediction with Katrina that Mississippi seemed most likely. It was around the same time as this in its development. If I were to make a prediction at this point, I'd probably guess eastern Texas near the border of Texas and Louisiana, but we are quite a ways off from that.
Of course, you know what the worst part of this is? Not the hurricane. It's the 5 days of RITA WATCH coverage we'll have to endure on local news. God help us.
Twenty bucks says Channel 2 will do a story on the hurricane's projected impact on the strip club business in Houston.
Yea, what's the deal with the staff for the Weather channel? They all look like they could be on an HBO special about swingers.
Behind the NHC and wunderground, this is my third favorite hurricane watching site: http://www.ih2000.net/ira/bmt-wth.htm
Here's my favorite. Nicole Mitchell Mainly because she actually flies into these hurricanes. How many on air meteorologists can say that?
Galveston preparing for Evacuations to begin Tuesday Night... KHOU-TV Reason why NHC has the path to the LEFT of models is because most stoms this year (like Katrina) Followed West of the path. As for people complaining about a "PANIC" well i'd rather have Houston/Galveston PANIC than just sit like some folks at New Orleans... Expect Thursday night on I-45 EXIT RAMPS to close and your only exits will be Huntsville - Highway 6 cross roads will be barracaded... This is a serious situation - plan on your evac routes now and prepare for a possible major hurricane. Got this below message from a WXMET at another message board.. ****Potential for a major hurricane landfall on the middle and upper TX coast.**** A major hurricane capable of extensive damage is forecast. Preparations to protect life and property should begin along the middle and upper TX coast, especially in the storm surge zones. PLEASE take this very seriously. We have 5-days to get ready that is plenty of time Current Analysis: Rita continues to organize over the Bahamas with the pressure now down to 997mb and winds up to 60mph. Recon. fixes indicate Rita is now moving toward the west at around 10mph. Track: The track forecast is very concerning. There is good agreement among the various models of a TX landfall Saturday. The latest GFDL and UKMET drive a major hurricane into Matagorda and Brazoria counties. The GFS is headed for Matagorda Bay. This is a worst case track for Houston/Galveston as the area would be in the right front (NE) quadrant of the hurricane. The overall upper air steering is controlled by a ridge of high pressure located over the US Gulf coast. It is now expected that this ridge will drive Rita westward into the central and western Gulf and then break down on the western edge over TX, allowing the hurricane to curve NW and N into the TX coast. This is supported by several models and climatology. It should be noted that the official NHC forecast track is south of the guidance cluster and will likely need a northward shift on the 1000am advisory. With this said, forecast track errors of 300 NM are possible at the Day 5 forecast point. Intensity: Major hurricane capable of extensive damage is expected. Given the rapid development of the inner core of Rita overnight, it should not be questioned if this storm will intensify. SHIPS brings the storm to 100kts (115mph) over the Gulf of Mexico. The GFDL brings Rita to 132kts (151mph) in the central Gulf and then weakens her to 106kts (121mph) at landfall over Brazoria County. Given the favorable setup in the Gulf of Mexico and extremely warm sea surface temps., Rita could become a category 4 or even 5 hurricane while over the central Gulf of Mexico. Upper level winds are expected to be very favorable for development and will maintain a powerful hurricane. Preparations: Keep your vehicle fueled at least 3/4ths full at all times this week. Take the time right now to develop a hurricane plan and be ready to put that plan in effect by the middle of this week. Know what you are going to do and when you are doing to do it. Contact your evacuation destination today and alert them of your possible arrival late this week. You need to begin preliminary preparations for the landfall of a major hurricane. Wednesday is going to be a critical decision making day with respect to evacuation. Persons in storm surge evacuation zones need to have all preparations completed and be ready to evacuate by Wednesday evening. The key to surviving a hurricane is preparation and planning
Houston residents -- what would it take to get you to evacuate?? i'm thinking if it's Cat 4 Friday night, i'm headed to Little Rock to visit the relatives. othewise, i'm sticking.
If it's heading our way, I may head up to Tyler or over to Austin for the weekend if we're given the day off at work on Friday.
I was just watching the weather on one of the stations. They said there are 5 path models out right now. 2 have it hitting Texas. 2 in Louisiana and 1 in Mississippi.
Well it's starting to look like I won't be spending this weekend at my brother in law's beach house in Galveston.
NOGAPS just re-ran and it is now just east of Galveston - was previously in Louisiana. It has been the more accurate of all the models this season, but we are still WAY out from any kind of significant accuracy. We'll know by Wednesday. Max: I'd stay for a cat 3, but anything above, I'd go probably to Austin to visit friends. I am already making plans to board my cats in Huntsville just simply because I don't want them to have to be here during that. I mean, if a tree fell on the house or something, they would lose it and I wouldn't want the stress of containing them.
