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[RITA] Storm in the Atlantic to Watch for Texans

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by Xenon, Sep 18, 2005.

  1. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

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    Now, Lyons is a guy I trust. He's not quite like the guy that used to be on there who passed away couple years ago (guy with the big gray mustache), but he is one of the better forecasters out there.
     
  2. JumpMan

    JumpMan Member
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    Thanks man, your input on this thread has been a huge help.
     
  3. Pole

    Pole Houston Rockets--Tilman Fertitta's latest mess.

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    Thanks.....I now have spit on my laptop screen. Still, it was worth a good laugh.
     
  4. Xerobull

    Xerobull ...and I'm all out of bubblegum
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    Ok, report from Galveston. It is semi-panic city here as folks prepare for the worst. Up and down every street people are boarding up windows and there is an eerie silence to everything. People are taking this thing seriously. UTMB was slow to react (IMO) in calling for people to be off at 2:30 PM. I went by the local grocery store by UTMB and things were brisk, but not crazy yet. It was a general sense of people holding their breath. Budweiser Select was $13.99 for a 20-Pack, so I said what the heck. I also bought a lottery ticket- what the heck. My luck can only be horrible in one place at one time, right?

    We are taking pictures of everything for insurance reasons, taping up windows, and putting anything we can't take but care about in big plastic bags. As I stated before, I live in a duplex about 17 feet off the ground. These doom-sayings of cat4 are worrying me- if it's a cat 3 or less, I feel pretty safe from flooding. My downstairs neghibors aren't so lucky. I'm helping them put things up high and have volunteered my space upstairs for their stuff if they want to move it up. Sucks because they just moved in a month ago.

    Anyway, back to packing. I will keep you guys updated.

    J
     
  5. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    Wow. Some scary stuff here.

    http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

    SEPT 7:30 AM CDT

    HURRICANE RITA TO REACH CATEGORY 3 WITHIN 6 HOURS
    MAJOR THREAT TO UPPER TEXAS COAST INCREASING
    CAT 3 AT LANDFALL - POTENTIAL CAT 4 'STORM SURGE'


    The latest RECON and Satellite data indicates that Hurricane Rita continues to intensify,
    and the eyewall is now closed off.

    The storm is now located near 24.0°N /82.6°W, or 70NM WSW of Key West, and continues
    moving west at 13Kts. Central pressure has fallen to 967mb, and the max Flight level wind
    had increased to 94Kts in the NW Quadrant (over an hour ago!). The thermal eye wall -- a
    very good indicator of the overall 'health' of the storm's core, is 7°C - though an earlier
    report showed the thermal difference was at times up to 10°C - though displaced from the
    Flite Wind center.

    Officially, Key West reported a max winds to 85mph -- however an unofficial report of a gust
    to 102mph was received via Ham Radio operator. Winds at Dry Tortugas - about 40 miles to the
    WNW of Rita --are now gusting to 66mph, and the water temp is 84°F. Winds will likely gust to over
    100mph there in 2 hours.

    What is becoming of great concern is the forecast development of a very large anticyclonic
    system across the entire Gulf of Mexico during the next 24-48 hours. This will permit the
    storm to grow even larger in size and intensity. The similarities in the size and location of this
    anti-cyclone is again eerily similar to that what took place 3 weeks ago with Katrina. All the
    models are beginning tightly cluster along the upper coast of Texas -- and several of the more
    reliable models are forecasting Rita to reach CAT 4 intensity. The increasingly smaller range of
    track evolutions -- and for intensity forecasts - along with the actual data - do support the distinct
    possibility of a very large, CAT 4 storm in the Guff by Thursday, and one that will turn northwestward
    and then northward striking the coast on Saturday near Galveston. The GFS has been the leader
    of the pack for the model forecasts -- and when dealing with track forecasts beyond 36 hours -- is
    often very reliable. The 12Z run, and the most recent 18Z run now show a landfall on the east side
    of Galveston Bay Saturday afternoon. Except for 2 cycle runs yesterday, the GFS has been forecasting
    a land fall near Galveston for 3 days (12 model run cycles).


    The next update will be around 11:30 tonight -- although a brief update will be sent if the
    next set of RECON reports warrant.
     
  6. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

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    Latest tracking just hit the NHC site. Still showing it hitting the central Texas coast, slightly further north - between Freeport and Matagorda Bay. But, it has a much more northerly angle and a sweep slightly south before the turn.

    [​IMG]
     
  7. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

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    Looking at the latest model guidance, the two most easterly models (GFS and BAM) have come back to the west slightly towards the east end of Galveston Island. The UKMET and GFDL are almost in perfect agreement and show a pass right over Matagorda Bay. Looks like NHC is leaning towards those two models with a nudge to the north based on the other two taking such a hard right turn late in the forecast.
     
  8. Pole

    Pole Houston Rockets--Tilman Fertitta's latest mess.

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    Here's a little secret: sometimes intellicast will have the latest maps and coordinates before the NHC posts them on their own website. The track has moved a bit closer to Freeport, and they have it hitting as a cat 4--120 knots! They even have it getting up to 125 knots before that.
     
  9. russian88

    russian88 Member

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    here's the lastest computer models

    [​IMG]
     
  10. MadMax

    MadMax Member

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    that's winds of around 140mph!!!! unreal. guessing it means winds of around 120mph in Houston. maybe only 100-110??
     
  11. sabirk

    sabirk Member

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    Come on NOGAPS.
     
  12. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

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    The general rule I've read is there is a decrease of a category of storm in the first 50 miles and then a rapid diminishing beyond that. That would mean Houston would experience sustained winds of around 110-115mph.
     
  13. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

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    FYI, I'm relocating to my mom's house up in Montgomery tomorrow night. I'll have internet up and running Thursday and Friday and I have a pair of back up power supply systems that should keep me running and online for 6-8 hours when/if the power goes out.

    I'm hoping to keep track of things from there.
     
  14. SWTsig

    SWTsig Member

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    NOGAPS! NOGAPS! NOGAPS!
     
  15. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

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    :D

    I wish. Unfortunately, that thing has been the outlier all along. Crazy how far off it is from the rest.
     
  16. Uprising

    Uprising Member

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    LMAO! I was watching the News, FOX NEWS IIRC, and they reporter was mooned by residents in Key West. Not very classy.

    The residents were drinking beer walking around mooning the camera crews. :rolleyes:
     
  17. Stevierebel

    Stevierebel Member

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    Hey guys... So what are they saying about the Spring/Champions area? Anything about expected winds or what not? It's just a scary thing when you are up north at school and your immediate family is all done there.
     
  18. mogrod

    mogrod Member

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    Woa! You seem to have a better handle about this so, if you are planning to get out of town, I'm going to consider it as well. Not that I wasn't already but I'm seriously making evac plans now.
     
  19. Rockets2K

    Rockets2K Clutch Crew

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    naaaw....dont worry about that...

    Jeff just doesnt want to risk losing power and losing his internet access. ;)
     
  20. Jeff

    Jeff Clutch Crew

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    I have two reasons for leaving...

    1. My cats. I will not leave them here and, while I have found boarding for most of them, a few of the more skittish one's will have to stay with me. Since I don't want to put them in harm's way, I'll take them to my mom's and I don't want to leave them there with her - not fair to my mom. So, I'll just stay there. The main concern is a tree or something falling on the house and leaving a gaping hole in the wall. I could see my cats running into the storm in fear. Not a pretty picture.

    2. I really don't want to sit through a storm at my house by myself. Not that I think my home will collapse or anything. I don't. But, if I'm here and something does happen to put me in danger, I'm guessing there aren't many in my immediate area who would come looking for me. So, better to be safe.

    ---

    Honestly, anyone inside the loop and north - outside of low-lying areas that are prone to flooding - will likely be fine. There will be damage and you should be prepared, but it isn't like we are right on the beach.
     

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