and the updated discussion, which has more info for us: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/201500.shtml WTNT43 KNHC 201500 TCDAT3 HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005 RITA HAS BECOME THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON. DATA FROM DOPPLER RADAR FROM KEY WEST...SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. DOPPLER RADAR PEAK WINDS AT 5 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 90 AND 95 KNOTS WITH AN ISOLATED PEAK OF 100 KNOTS...AND DROPSONDES IN THE EYEWALL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 982 MB...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. BOTH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE OCEAN BELOW RITA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRADUALLY BRINGS THE WINDS UP BUT...IT DOES NOT INCLUDE THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. RITA WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO GO UP AND DOWN IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. RITA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS SINCE IT IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERAFTER...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORCE RITA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THIS IS ONE THE CASES OF RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW JUST THE SKINNY BLACK LINE...IT IS ALWAYS GOOD TO REMIND THEM THAT 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE LARGE. FORECASTER AVILA
Probably comes from whatever old-school mainframe they have their software running on. Irritates me, too.
You know, that's a good question. I've been following it pretty closely, obviously. Over the course of this season, forecast models have tended to either overemphasize or underemphasize ridges of high pressure. You can see how all the forecasts have shifted as the storm has jogged a bit to the south and west after many of them had it as far to the east as New Orleans. If I had to put money on it TODAY, I'd say just to the south of Matagorda Bay as a minimal category 3. But, I'll feel a lot more confident making predictions tomorrow afternoon. BTW, has anyone seen this... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/projects/hurr_1943/hurr_1943.htm The "Secret" Hurricane that hit Galveston in 1943??? I'd never heard of this!
I say start a "Predict where RITA hits" thread. Jeff's and R2k's responses seem reasonable, but I am BETTING 10 that it hits New Orleans, just to piss them off again. I know it sounds mean, but I bet ANYTHING it hits there. MadMax? Irish-Mex connection response?
Yea, especially not with Google Earth on the prowl now. Who ever knew that big brother would be your favorite search engine, too?
This storm will be great for drinkers. Drinking games at hurricane parties can include both Hurricanes AND MargaRITAs.
Hey, that would have made a great X-Files episode. In response to a possible UFO crash in the Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. government halts all air traffic over the gulf, evacuates the offshore oil rigs, and completely blocks out satellite and radar coverage of the gulf, resulting in a major cat 5 hurricane ravaging the Texas coast without any warning...
I was only 5 when I lived through Alicia in Sugar Land, so I don't remember THAT much. So, I have a question. I now live in Missouri City. Should I be making plans to board up all my windows?
that's right..you go ahead and keep it secret...but remember this...when you control the mail..you control.....information!!!!
