I just may do that...I have all of my aquarium bottles(four 5 gallons) full...but am thinking of getting a couple more cases to be safe. you think the Kroger on Garth is doing the same?...its the one closest to my house...but I can make it to Alexader if needed.
I went to the grocery store last night, and they were all out of creamed eels and corn nog. Their was a little wadded beef left, but it's probably gone by now...
Also, the fact that this is not a hurricane yet is a good sign. Every place I read had it a hurricane 12 hours ago and certainly overnight. Now, even the most aggressive intensity models have it barely reaching category 3 status while the SHIPS model, which has been much more accurate to this point, has it only becoming a category 2 storm. Like the forecast track, we've got a long way to go with intensity predictions and hurricane intensity is FAR harder to predict than tracking, but stay tuned.
Randall's just got a huge shipment of canned plankton in. Stock up boys, and live like some fat cats.
My brother was predicting this last night. He's a weather freak like me...but he was saying he was listening to something where they were saying that these models are overrating the strength of this high pressure system that would keep the storm away. That's confirmed a bit in the article below..and I've read it elsewhere. My bet is Freeport, by the way. http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/ So why has Rita shifted down the Texas coast? First off, here's a summary of the most recent runs of the major computer models by meteorologist Gary Gray: 06Z NAM: doesn't go out far enough to show landfall, but it's south position with WNW to NW motion at the end of its period indicates landfall in south Texas on Saturday. 06Z GFS: has landfall near Matagorda on Sat AM. 06Z NOGAPS: has landfall down on Padre Island on Sat afternoon. 00Z GGEM: is similar in location but faster... it has landfall around Brownsville Fri evening. 00Z UKMET: turns Rita late but hard, allowing her to pull up towards Matagorda for a landfall Fri PM. 00Z ECMWF: is a bit of an outlier as it is a little further north... it has landfall on Saturday up around Galveston. 06Z GFDL: also remains off to the north a bit, but not quite as much as the ECMWF... it has landfall near Freeport Friday night. Here's Gray's analysis of the models, and how they handle the high pressure ridge over Texas: On the one hand, I'm not overly impressed by the ridge... it's not overly strong and it's positioned rather far north. As such, I could foresee the northernmost solutions coming to pass. On the flip side, there is a bit of 500mb ridging that may try to block Rita's northward progress prior to landfall. Moreover, the faster westward motion right now gives the ridge less time to break down and/or move... although, interestingly, there is no relationship - in the models - between landfall timing and location. That is, the models with the more rapid motion across the Gulf do NOT inherently get Rita to the western Gulf before the ridge can break down and, therefore, move her into south Texas. No, we see fast solutions, like the GFDL, up near Freeport, and slow solutions, like the NOGAPS, down across Padre Island. This does, however, reinforce my comment that the ridge differences are rather subtle. Given the subtleties and my own conflicting views on the pattern evolution, I'm going to shoot down the middle of the model guidance. This would be a landfall between about Corpus Christi and Matagorda, TX. For some consistency, I'll lean north a bit, towards Matagorda. I'm also going down the middle for landfall timing... overnight Fri into Sat AM. This is similar to Robert Lightbrown's analysis at Crown Weather: At this point, I think the breakdown of high pressure will begin on Friday and thus I am forecasting Rita to come ashore in Matagorda County, Texas late Friday night or in the predawn hours of Saturday morning with 120 to 125 mph winds. This track is obviously not set in stone, and changes in forecast track and intensity may still occur as Rita crosses the Gulf of Mexico and nears the coast of Texas. A track further to the south into southern Texas or a track further north into the upper Texas coast or even western Louisiana is certainly possible. And, of course, there's this important note of caution from the National Hurricane Center this morning on the model movement southward: AT THIS POINT IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO SPECIFY WHERE THE GULF LANDFALL MIGHT OCCUR. I glean two facts from these discussions for those preparing for a strike by Rita: 1. The storm is moving fast, making landfall possible on Friday night instead of Saturday morning. Adjust your evacuation plans accordingly. 2. As a result of this speed, the coastal area could begin seeing rain from Rita as early as Thursday afternoon, with winds shortly after.
It is now officially Hurricane Rita Rita has reached hurricane strength as it continues to swirl through the Straits of Florida lashing the Florida Keys with bursts of heavy rain and strong winds. Wind gusts so far have peaked at 62 mph at Molasses Reef in the upper Keys. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Keys and all along the south Florida coast from Golden Beach (just north of Miami) to Chokoloskee on the southwest coast. A hurricane warning also remains posted for portions of western Cuba. In addition to the violent squalls, isolated tornadoes are possible in the Keys and also farther north across the southern end of the peninsula. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels is forecast for the Keys in areas of onshore flow. Heavy surf will accompany the surge. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches are expected, although isolated totals of up to 12 inches are not out of the question. Rita is forecast to continue on a westward track into the Gulf of Mexico later today and tomorrow, quite likely powering up into a dangerous major hurricane (winds over 110 mph) by Thursday. All residents along the western Gulf Coast from extreme northern Mexico to southwest Louisiana should pay close attention to Rita as it is expected to shift to a more northwesterly or northerly course late in the week. And the strengthening begins !! UGH ! DD
Shifting to the West? Happy for Houston if it holds ... now looks like a direct hit on ACL. (although Friday will be dry and Sunday will just be soggy)
I say again, Nucking Futs. I'm definately glad that this sucker seems to be shifting to the south. I would prefer the north so we can stay away from the 'dirty' side of things, but for the sake of all, I don't want it anywhere near LA- those people have been through enough. But the farther South it goes away from Galveston, the better. I'm also glad that this seems like it will be a Cat3 or less, by all indiactions. I am in the East End Historical district of Galveston, and on the second floor of an old house converted to a duplex, which is about 16 feet off the ground. It's about half a mile from the seawall, so if the storm surge goes over the seawall, it will lose considerable power by the time it gets to my home. As long as it DOES stay Cat3 or less, I feel that my chances of flood are pretty slim. That is, as long as my house doesn't get knocked off it's foundations. There is a reason these old houses were pretty much unscathed during the 1900 storm when there was no seawall. As for sourav004's question about UTMB's evac policy, there are three different 'E' classifications at UTMB for emergencies, as well as Non-Essential: *“E1” – ESSENTIAL employees with specific responsibilities who remain on campus/in hospital during an external emergency. *“E2” – RESERVE ESSENTIAL employees who report to or remain on campus/in hospital preceding an external emergency for the preparatory phase but are subject to being re-designated as needed by their department. *“E3” RE-ENTRY ESSENTIAL employees who must return to relieve emergency classification “E1” employees when roads are accessible. *“N” NON-ESSENTIAL employees whose presence is not essential in carrying out the institutional mission, but cannot leave campus/hospital until released by supervisor and must return to work as usual under normal operations after emergency status has ended. I'm classified as E2/3, thankfully. If your parents are medical staff or administrative, they may be E1 or E2, but if they aren't, you probably don't have anything to worry about. Hope that helps.
The National Hurricane Center said it may run out of names to use for tropical storms and hurricanes if they keep popping up.
Prepare for Hurricane Alpha! http://news.yahoo.com/s/space/20050919/sc_space/hurricanecentermayrunoutofnames Hurricane Center May Run Out of Names Ker Than Before the 2005 hurricane season is done, you might read about Hurricane Alpha. Each year, 21 common names are reserved for Atlantic Basin hurricanes, with the list arranged alphabetically and skipping certain letters. Rita is the 17th named storm in the Atlantic Basin this year. There are only four left. So what will officials do after tropical storm Wilma develops, assuming it does? "We go to the Greek alphabet," said Frank Lepore, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center. This gives the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations agency responsible for choosing hurricane names, 24 more names to work with, from Alpha to Omega, and including such names as Omicron and Upsilon. Could happen "The August update to Atlantic hurricane season outlook called for 18 to 21, so I would hope it doesn't go any higher than that, but it's a possibility," Lepore said. The naming of Hurricanes has a long and interesting history. For many centuries, hurricanes in the West Indies were named after particular Catholic saint's days on which they occurred. Hurricane "San Felipe" struck Puerto Rico on September 13, 1876. When another hurricane struck Puerto Rico on the same day more than fifty years later, it was christianed "San Felipe the second." Later, latitude-longitude positions were used, but this method quickly proved cumbersome. Military weather forecasters began giving women's names to significant storms during WWII, then in 1950 the WMO agreed to an alphabetical naming system, using the military's radio code. The first named Atlantic hurricane was Able in 1950. Name change Officials soon realized the naming convention would cause problems in the history books if more than one powerful Hurricane Able made landfall. So, in 1953 the organization adopted a rotating series of women's names, planning to retire names of significant storms. Feminists urged the WMO to add men's names, which was done in 1979. The boy-girl-boy-girl naming convention evolved to include French and Spanish names in the Atlantic system, reflecting the languages of the nations affected by Carribean hurricanes. The twenty-one names reserved each year (the letters q, u, x, y and z are not used) are recycled every six years, minus those retired (such as Hugo and Andrew and, you can bet, Katrina). When a name is retired, the WMO chooses a new name to replace it. The year with the most documented tropical storms was 1933, when there were 21 in the Atlantic Basin, but this was before hurricanes were routinely named. Some studies have suggested that global warming may be causing increases in hurricane intensity and frequency, but many scientists are skeptical.
then they go to the Greek alphabet. Hurricane Alpha...Beta...and on and on. that's never happened before.
Here's the latest advisory, nothing really new as far as we're concerned. ----------------------------------- http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200518.public.html Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 11 Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 20, 2005 ...Rita becomes the ninth hurricane of the season... a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys...and from Golden Beach on the Florida southeast coast southward to East Cape Sable...then northward to Chokoloskee on the southwest coast. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas...Ciudad de Habana...and la Habana. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West Coast north of Chokoloskee to Englewood. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida East Coast from north of Golden Beach northward to Jupiter Inlet...as well as for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio. At 11 am EDT...1500z...all warnings for the Bahamas have been discontinued and for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila...Sancti Spiritus...and Cienfuegos. At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Hurricane Watch from Deerfield Beach Florida southward to north of Golden Beach has been discontinued. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near latitude 23.8 north...longitude 81.0 west or about 75 miles...120 km...southeast of Key West Florida and about 100 miles...160 km... east-northeast of the city of Havana Cuba. Rita is moving toward the west near 15 mph ...24 km/hr...and this general track is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of the hurricane will be moving over the Florida Straits between the city of Havana and the Florida Keys today. However...the strongest winds associated with the northern eyewall are expected to impact portions of the Florida Keys directly. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph...140 km/hr...with higher gusts. Rita is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles...195 km. Sombrero Key recently reported sustained winds of 59 mph...95 km/hr with gusts to 72 mph...117 km/hr. Minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance plane was 982 mb...29.00 inches. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...are possible in the Florida Keys in areas of onshore flow. Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern Florida coast. Rita is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 8 inches over the Florida Keys..central and northwestern Cuba... with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. Rainfallamounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible across the southern Florida pennisula. Rains are expected to continue to diminish across the Bahamas. There is possibility of isolated tornados over South Florida and the Florida Keys. Repeating the 11 am EDT position...23.8 N... 81.0 W. Movement toward...west near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 982 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM EDT. Forecaster Avila $$
