Very good article. I liked the link to the table with VAA. If Odorizzi's velocity stays up and gets back to the 2019 shape, he should be fine. It is very similar to Javier in that a small decrease in velocity changes the effectiveness of his fastball by a lot.
Not the biggest Odorizzi fan, but agree that's a great deal. If he can replicate 2019, it will be a steal.
This 2022 $1,000,000 per 10 innings pitched thing seems both bizarre and fascinating. If he misses some time early in the season ,it's going to create some weird incentives for him to try to push through some extras inning every start later on or maybe pitch through injuries - each extra inning he can pitch would net him basically $100,000. Not sure if this is a good incentive structure or not.
In general, this would not be a good incentive structure. Though, the Astros needed a way to pay Odorizzi that wouldn't raise the AAV calculation for 2021. It will be up to the manager and Strom to make sure Odorizzi is healthy next season.
Come on Jimmy. Maybe you really like him, and maybe Framber's not done completely, but no need for disingenuous statements like this. This deal just happened to come together almost immediately after the injury.
To me, the fact that it came together so quickly after the injury strongly indicates that they’d already been engaged at least to the point where they had basic parameters in place. I agree it’s hard to believe the injury had zero to do with it getting over the finish line, but I do believe Click had already had extensive talks with Odorizzi’s team.
