Here's an interesting alternative perspective on Anthony. If you're a Carmelo fan it's not going to change your opinion, but it does make you wonder if he's a Morey type guy or not. Carmelo Anthony is not an elite player Tom Haberstroh Special to ESPN Insider Carmelo Anthony has averaged 20 points per game every season since he arrived in the NBA. This past campaign, he became the third-youngest player ever to reach the 10,000-point plateau, behind only Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. And next summer, he could hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent. But despite all those gaudy point totals, the three-time All-Star may not even be worth the max deal a team would likely give him in 2011. At first glance, Anthony seems like a member of the NBA's elite, largely due to his scoring prowess. But a deeper look at the points column and elsewhere in his game reveals a player who lives on an undeserved reputation more than his actual impact on wins. It's tough to argue with his 28.2 points-per-game average in '09-10, but in the game of basketball, how a shooter gets his points is more meaningful than the raw number itself. To see that, we need to peel back the layers. Let's first talk about Anthony's shot volume. It's not exactly a secret that 'Melo likes to shoot the rock, but his propensity to launch shots may raise some eyebrows. This past season, no player in the NBA took more shots per minute than Anthony -- not Kobe, not LeBron, not even scoring champ Kevin Durant. It may seem obvious that a player worthy of 20 shots per game would have a healthy conversion rate. But in Anthony's case, that's far from the truth. Anthony, in reality, had a below-average field goal percentage (.458) this past season -- and his career percentage (.459) is no different. (The league average is .463.) The sharp readers out there will point out that traditional field goal percentage doesn't reflect Anthony's shooting ability, since he launches a healthy dose of 3-pointers, which obviously count more on the scoreboard. That's true. But if you've been paying attention, you know Anthony is not a good shooter from beyond the arc, so that doesn't help his case. As a career .308 percent 3-point shooter, his shot from downtown ranks far below the norm (the average small forward shot .349 last season; Melo shot .316) and any progress he seemingly made in 2008-09, when he shot a career-high .371, disappeared. Even if we incorporate the added point bonus of a 3-pointer, the Syracuse product's shooting percentages are, at best, average. It seems that, anyway we slice it, Anthony is a gunner at the core. His exceptional skill on offense is his ability to get his shot off, whether it's attacking the rim or through a patented pull-up jumper on the perimeter. But interestingly enough, Anthony got his shot blocked a whopping 109 times last season, which ranks as the second-highest total in the league, according to Hoopdata.com. Evidently, he doesn't lack perseverance. Anthony's case illustrates a fundamental problem in conventional basketball analysis: scoring averages don't reflect efficiency. It's true that Anthony scored 28.2 points per game last season, but it's also true that no player missed more shots as often as Anthony did. Feel free to credit his skill but also pay attention his lofty shot volume and playing time. And that's before we consider the disguise of team pace. Since Anthony entered the league, the Denver Nuggets have averaged 95.9 possessions per game, which places them as the third -fastest squad in the NBA over that period of time (and just a fraction behind the high-octane Phoenix Suns). Over that same span, the Nuggets have squeezed out an extra four possessions per game when compared to the average NBA team. Do the math, and the Nuggets have enjoyed nearly 2,000 extra possessions above the norm since Anthony joined the NBA. That's a ton of extra opportunities that can pad the per-game stats used as measuring sticks. So after stripping out the inflationary effect of fast pace and boiling down Anthony's numbers to a per possession level, his scoring punch looks even more pedestrian. How pedestrian? Anthony's career offensive rating, an efficiency measure that calculates how many points a player produces per 100 possessions he uses, checks out at 107, which sits right at the league average. For reference, 2003 draft-mates James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have earned 114, 111, and 113 lifetime offensive ratings, respectively. Before we prematurely call Anthony an average player, there is something to be said for the burden of trust. Not every player can still perform while shouldering the heavy scoring responsibility that Anthony has endured. But the Nuggets have probably allowed Anthony to shoot far too often if efficiency -- and winning -- is their goal. In fact, last season Melo was only sixth on his own team in ORtg (110), trailing far behind other legit weapons like Nene (124), Chauncey Billups (120) and Ty Lawson (118). Aside from scoring, Anthony doesn't have many other bankable weapons as a player. His rebounding (career 6.2 rpg) is only slightly better than what we'd expect from a small forward, and he doesn't create opportunities for his teammates like Paul Pierce, Wade and James can. Furthermore, he hasn't shown the intensity and dedication on the defensive end that you'd want from a max player. In the end, Anthony's game demonstrates why it's important to strip away the biases that color our perceptions of elite players. In Anthony's case, the excessive shot volume, his team's stat-padding tempo and the lack of a true 3-point game makes his 28.2 ppg seem far less impressive than his sparkling reputation would suggest. If anything, it's time we moved on from per-game statistics to evaluate our players. Millions of dollars are wasted every year basing player value on the archaic statistics that teams used half a century ago. And someone will surely overpay Anthony and offer him a max contract -- just look at the deals Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay got. If the New York Knicks, rumored to be the favorites to land Melo if he decides to leave Denver, are expecting salvation from Anthony next summer, they're going to be very disappointed with their investment. It would be a much a wiser move to throw that cash toward the pursuit of Chris Paul, a real max player. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/news/story?id=5439653
Well, he doesn't fit now, and I agree with you about Martin.....I liked Maggette in previous years, he is redundant on this team now. And that article ^^^^^ is exactly why I am not thrilled with Melo......I have thought he was overated for years. That being said, he would be our best player...lol......I lump him in with Bosh, a great player, but not one that is a leader or a player who plays hard all over the court as a true competitor. DD
Wow, interesting article. I have liked Chris Paul over Anthony, and I agree with what was said. However, if I had to choose (a trade scenario) between Martin and Anthony I'm choosing Anthony, as both are good scorers and not so great on defense but Anthony is the much better all around player (if someone has some advanced stats that make them comparable, please share, my mind could be changed) I think Melo's contract would take care of itself (Max contract or not, how many guys are better than him that we can get if this offer presented itself?) I like this team and want to see how we do, but I think Martin for Melo (unless someone shows me otherwise) would be fine with me.
Say what u will about carmello,but he has taken his team to the playoffs every year which is the sign of a superstar to me. I think the articles fails because pace wouldnt bother anthony as much as it would someone like smith. You could put anthony in charlotte and he would avg the same. DD, anthony is a tier above bosh to me.Bosh cant hold anthony jock. Once u get past kobe,james,wade,paul,howard, the next guys are anthony,durant,williams,dirk,nash,bosh,roy.
i just want to wake up one morning and read...carmelo to the rockets for draft picks and exprings... Just once let something good happen to us...you know if we get melo pauls coming too. after the dust settles on melo...if we missed out... i think the rockets will make a major trade...prob have to settle for iggy or rashard lewis. Which I still dont know if they are upgrades...iggy would be great if it cost us just expirings and j hill or something.
He means trading Battier, Scola, and Yao. He's posted in the past about blowing the team up, ie those players if McGrady was no longer healthy as he's the only one that could carry this team to the finals.
you misunderstood. i just came up a few examples to indicate alot teams can easily come up a package that matches one from rox. chase & 1st round pick for melo, it's too cheap. i really doubt lakers, and other contenders won't jump in for gigantic discount sale coz they would lose little, just a young potential solid role player + 1st round pick, instead one of core players those contenders have.
I agree with the most part, but the stats used do not factor in team play at all. Being the best player on the team, he is drawing double teams while others his stats are compared to are not. Even on his own team, he has lower stats, but how much of his teammates stats are benefitting from Anthony being on the floor? That said however, it's a bit of a challenge to think that Anthony would succeed here where he has failed in Denver, usually with a rather talented roster. The difference would have to be based on the presence of Yao and Adleman's coaching, and I'm doubtful that it would really make the difference. That said, what do we have to lose by trying if the deal is right?
Nowhere close to the truth, but it is what it is. I dont advocate tanking, but the only way u can get a top tier player is by being bad enough to draft one. ok city,portland,orlando could have kept adding mid level players to stay in the playoff hunt. They didnt have to trade ray allen or rasheed,or even tracy for that matter after they got howard, but there are times when your best player isnt aligned with your young talent. I think morey has done a good job in the draft, but its expecting alot to pull a top guy out side of the top 8. I think its asking alot to think he can do so. In fact, there havent been many instances when it has happened.kobe,dirk,pierce,i guess tracy, were players picked in that range. Granger was chosen 13 or so and is a good player,but he's not on those guys level. Even a guy like roy who is a very,very good player and a big game changer was chosen 6th. You have to get in that range to get that caliber of player.
Agreed. He would probably average the same in Charlotte. He would also probably be just as inefficient there and he would still basically be just a scorer.
Carmelo Anthony's ORtg last year was higher than Kobe Bryant's. It was also higher than anything Tracy McGrady posted while a Rocket. He's not as efficient as one might like because of his mediocre passing and inconsistent 3pt shot, but he's not Allen Iverson. The bigger issue I have with him is his D, which at times can be atrocious (and at times it's decent, so it's pretty clearly an effort issue. I hate that.).
Anthony has a assist:turnover of 1 while James is somewhere around 2. Anthony shot 7% better than James from the charity stripe last season. Career wise Anthony gets 1 more offensive rebound per game than James. Anthony is a post player who can face up or play with his back to the basket while James is a dribble-drive penetrate player who creates contact and opportunities for his teamates, no real mid-range jumpshot to talk about. But they both wear headbands.
I guess I look at Melo as a truly elite scorer, who can score baskets on demand. It's something of a McGrady circa 2005. I thought that team with McGrady and a healthy Yao with any sort of supporting cast (and not relying on fatally flawed players like Ryan Bowen, Clarence Weatherspoon, and David Wesley) would have done damage. Melo may not have McGrady's passing ability, but I'd feel the same way about a Melo/Yao team. Scola is already a ton better than anything else that team had. If you can keep Martin or Brooks too, that team is dangerous. Having an elite scorer + safety valve options to surround Yao makes him much tougher to handle. Scola is that safety valve, and a very good one at that. I'm curious to see how Brooks circa 2010 and Martin change the defensive schemes against Yao.
I see, the thing is though, Melo is only going to a team in contention so a lot of teams who COULD offer a batter package or better picks are scratched off the list and pointless to discuss about. Philly, Memphis, GS ...etc aren't going to give up assets to acquire the dude and have him leave in 1 yr, but a team on the brink of a title would make the leap even if only for 1 yr. I agree with most that have said Denver won't be getting much in return so a young athletic wing, a potential high 1st and salary relief is a viable offer. NY has Curry, Orlando has Vince and we have Shane/JJ but we also have young assets/picks that would be tempting for a rebuilding squad like Denver would become. Saying all that, if Melo has said NY or Orlando and the McNuggets are going to bend over backwords for the guy then we aren't in play.
@ChrisMannixSI: RT @LEXthePEX Any chance the Rockets get in on Melo as a 1 yr rental (No. Morey wouldn't give up big assets for a rental) Funny, someone else tweeted about Morey going after Artest as a 1yr rental
Haven't we learned. 1. Melo wants to go to NY 2. Chris Paul wants to go to NY 3. If our package is not "WOW" like, we will have ZERO chance to get him because if Denver can get a similar package (which may be cap relief), they may as well make the process easier by sending Melo to some where he wants to go. 4. Yao "our only true star" is unhealthy. AB still needs 1-2 more years before you can even say he is a star player and KM is a borderline star player who doesn't generate "Wow he is good" and he gets injured easily. Players who are looking to win, are not going to pray Yao/KM stays healthy and AB improves (honestly who wants to play with a scoring PG. lets face it, if we get a star player, they want the ball all the time) We got T-mac because he didn't care where he landed, as long as it was a contender and obviously having a young Yao helped.
Enough with this one year rental stuff. Morey did it with Artest because we hardly gave anything up to get him. Plus, he did offer him a new contract but Ron went to LA.
He offered Artest a 1 year contact (if recall correctly) and it took forever (Rockets love to play that waiting game). Granted Artest may have already made up his mind.
Exactly. The offers Denver will see if Melo refuses to extend with anyone but NY won't be anything like the bidding if he were open to joining a list of teams. The fact that he wants to leave a competitive playoff team for a craptastic Knicks teams tells you a lot about his state of mind. This isn't a KG/Wolves situation. The Rockets are very unlikely to be much more appealing to him than Denver. So the trick becomes offering a rental deal that beats the standing Knicks offer (probably Curry, Gallinari, Randolph, a 2nd rounder, and cash) without giving up more than you'd miss after the rental is done. You can also factor in that NY may still send Gallinari/Randolph along with a TE in a summer S&T for Anthony. Also factor in that unless a deal happens by preseason, it gets incredibly difficult - you can't pull off a 5-for-1 trade midseason due to roster constraints (Denver would have to waive players they actually want to keep, Rockets would have to scramble for NBDL guys, etc). Potential rental offer: Jeffries, Budinger, Patterson, Hill, Taylor, rights to Lull, one 1st rd draft pick (Knicks or Rockets). Stiff price, but still leaves us with: Yao-Miller Scola-Hayes Melo-Battier Martin-Lee Brooks-Lowry We lose depth and youth, but have a potent lineup that will contend and have a far better shot than the current lineup and there's a good chance that Gallinari and Randolph come over in a Melo S&T to the Knicks, making up for the loss of Chase and Patterson/Hill.
