[Reuters] Poll says Chavez loses Venezuela referendum lead

Just joking. I fully expect Bush to step down. I'd give you 100 to 1 that Bush will step down. If not, I hope I can get to the border fast enough. I was just reacting to the naked assertion by another poster that Chavez will never step down.

It seems to me that with Chavez is not as simple as he just wants to be a leftwing dictator. If so, what has stopped him from doing so? Why bother to win election after election until yesterday? I'm not sure I can buy your simplistic it is all a no lose proposition for him. Why bother? Is their opposition in the military? What is your theory?

 

I hate to put myself in seeming to be Chavista but to be fair he didn't come back and try the military route but took the democratic route and was democractically elected. Hayes, you have been a frequent defender of democracy so are you now saying that Venezualan democracy is a sham and that Chavez's election was really a coup?

 

Nope, not saying that. What I am saying is that Chavez is not stupid. He tried to outright sieze power in a coup, so don't go thinking he's any more democratic than Castro (who at least started out with a populist revolution before moving toward totalitarianism). When he tried his coup he "quipped on national television that he had only failed "por ahora" (for now)." Yesterday when confronted with the loss of his attempt to extend his terms he again said that he had only failed "por ahora." Why bother to win an election? Well, he failed to gain power by seizing it, right? Why bother with another election? Because the main military contingent that reinstalled him to power after the attempted coup against him in 2002 has broken with him. He no longer has the military muscle to affect a coup. Nor, IMO, does he think he needs it. He understands that it will be much better for the power to be given to him than for him to take it, and that he ultimately has until 2012 to change this issue in his favor. In the meantime he has already made other undemocratic moves such as engaging third parties to intimidate opposition including violently, using the state to manipulate the media and limit oppositions ability to use media outlets, use government contracts and licensing to freeze out opposition. Put together his coup attempt with these moves, and his now failed attempt to open the door to infinite terms and it shouldn't be hard to understand it's power Chavez is after. He's got until 2012 to solidify his power base and I'll bet dollars to donuts that he won't relinquish power then.

 

^ I agree Chavez isn't stupid but its undeniable that he did take the democratic route to power. Whether that was due to pragmatism on his part or that he believes in it it doesn't matter as it shows that there is democracy in Venezuala. That it put into power someone who we don't agree with and is doing things to Venezuala that we don't approve is besides the point.

For the current election you seem to be saying that this means that Chavez is likely to try again to gain power. He very well might but my point is that he is doing so through a democratic process and as this defeat shows one that isn't totally rigged. Yet...

 

I'm very concerned myself, Hayes and Yao Ming Kicks Ass, but Y.M.K.A. and glynch make an equally good point (well, I'm more pessimistic, as I've made pretty clear, but they have a point) that Chavez allowed the election, even if he did everything he could to prevent the opposition from participating as fully as they should have been allowed to under the constitution. He still lost. One can only wonder how close the vote might have been if it had truly been free and open prior to casting the ballots. I would suspect the margin would have been larger against him.

What will keep Chavez from having a vote to get what he wants every year until "the stars align" and he's successful? He's already using the "foreign threat" tactic. If something more credible (or simply easier for the people to believe) gets the populace in an uproar, expect another vote similar to this one, with Chavez tinkering with his strategy to obtain the result he wants.

If he doesn't again attempt this wholesale change to the constitution to enable him to be president for life, something he wants and was very upfront about, as well as the other core amendments to create a socialist state ala Castro's Cuba and a power structure similar to Putin's, and goes quietly when his term ends, I'll be the first to say I was wrong. I'm not optimistic. The guy may very well "get wise" and get a couple of amendments passed that are of actual benefit to the general public, promote some goodwill and calm some nerves, and then attempt to get his main agenda passed, what we just saw defeated, during that "stars aligned" period I mentioned. That wouldn't surprise me in the least.



Trim Bush!

 

^ We can speculate whether Chavez will try to get dictatorial powers again and what means he might do so but that is speculation. I'm not going to disagree that Chavez might not even try a coup but the facts as they stand today are that Chavez came to power democractically and had his power grab defeated democratically. At the moment Chavez seems to be accepting it and Venezualan democracy is working.

 

After he failed to take a nondemocratic route to power. Let's not forget that.

I agree.

I never said anything about whether I like Chavez or what he's doing. I don't, but I never made that part of my argument.

I never said it was totally rigged. Yet. However, don't confuse (this will be confusing ) "not totally rigged" with fair and impartial.

He doesn't have any less power now than the day before the election. He just isn't assured of continuing to be in power beyond 2012. Yet.

Deckard, as this particular issue doesn't affect Chavez until 2012 I don't think it proves that Chavez IS democratic or so inclined. All it proves is that he recognized the split among his own supporters against the amendment. Again, no one is saying he's stupid. But he loses nothing by letting this one go to the wayside. That he wants to continue consolidating power in his hands is fairly indisputable. Remember the pattern he had set. He tried to coup, that failed. He said, for now. He got elected. He started consolidating power and made this move which would allow him to stay in power under a democratic guise (ala Castro) forever. It failed. What did HE say - "for now." That only indicates he will continue to consolidate power, through these means or another. That isn't anything to be trumpeting.