Economically, racial divide which has gained momentum, war in Middle East, Obama regime to name a few. That's just a handful of things. So much room for improvement.
It is? On what grounds are you saying that? Our economy is pretty good, especially comparatively both to other economies in the world and in comparison to where it was 8 years ago. Our foreign policy has definitely taken steps in the right direction with Iran having to follow an observable regimen regarding nukes, ending the embargo with Cuba, reducing our previous records on torture, etc. We have not improved in regards to NSA surveillance on American citizens, and throwing the book at whistle blowers. That is one of the areas that should have improved, was definitely improvable, but not improved in the slightest.
A few thoughts after South Carolina: 1. Cruz lost the Evangelical vote - his entire campaign strategy in a nutshell - handily to Trump. What's up? Are born-again Christians not impressed? Or has hell frozen over and they are now going for the lifelong pro-choice democrat? 2. Jeb is out. A hundred million dollars too late. GOP will now rally around Rubio to stop Judgement Day at all costs. Yet, how long can Rubio spin Bronze Medal finishes into victories? 3. Kasich and Carson, what are you smoking? It's over. Been over for weeks if not months. How are you going to rally with 8% of the vote in any given state? 4. Finally onto Trump, history is on his side, but the majority of his party and its electorate isn't. Thus, 35% of the vote can carry him from here to Cleveland. Yet, how will he trump November? Is there a bigger oxymoron than a Clinton-Republican? 5. Ronald Reagan must be rolling over right about now.
SC is traditionally pretty establishment-friendly, and while I won't go so far as to say that I expected it, I wouldn't have been surprised if Rubio had done a little better (and I'm willing to bet HE was expecting to do better). No idea what Carson's doing, but I think Kasich still thinks he can gain some traction in NE states. If he can't stay competitive with Rubio in MA and VT, I think he throws in the towel.
How I'd rank the possibilities for the GOP race, from most likely to least likely: 1. Brokered Convention 2. Trump 3. Rubio 4. Cruz 5. Kasich 6. Romney or other dark horse 7. Carson (Seriously, why the heck is he still in the race?)
2 observations. 1. I think we've seen Trumps ceiling. Despite fewer candidates in this primary, his % of the vote dropped from 35% in New Hampshire to 32.5% in South Carolina. In other words, he's not picking up votes from candidates that drop out. 2. The one thing we can be assured of is that with Jeb Bush dropping out, the ONLY candidate we know won't get those votes are Trump. Now, where those votes go...whether to Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, or Carson is unknown. But I can certainly make the case that the majority will go to one of the front runners not named Trump...ie Rubio or Cruz. And of those 2, Rubio is certainly closer to Bush in policy and temperament than Cruz. If the above holds true, Rubio gets stronger, Trump and Cruz remain stagnant while we wait for Carson and Kasich to drop.
there will at least small amounts that go to trump. there are probably some people that don't even know that trump was saying negative things about the bush family. there are some voters that probably just pick a person's name they know with a (R) next to it and call it a day. in other words i have a hard time seeing trump lose at this point. until he gets his head bashed in by hillary. she truly could not have asked for a better scenario. she would probably squeak out a win against most others. but she will steam roll trump.
Dribs and drabs of votes aren't gonna push Trump upwards. How do you explain Trump actually dropping the % of vote from New Hampshire to South Carolina when there were 3 fewer candidates in the race? Here's another observation. In head to head polls between Trump vs. Rubio or Cruz or Kasich, he loses at roughly 60% to 40% . I've also seen a poll that states Trump is the most unpopular 2nd choice of all the Republican candidates BY FAR. I stand by my statement. I think there is a ceiling for Trump support and that it stands about 40%. (The only caveat I make is if the "inevitability train" gets rolling. I don't think we're quite there yet. Super Tuesday will obviously be huge.)
Perhaps your theory is correct, but it makes sense to wait until another primary, since its likely Trump's "dropped" numbers in SC were more influenced by the more right-wing/evangelical make up of the GOP voters in SC than in NH and that his share actually increased in SC considering the demographics. If his numbers continue to remain flat, or decline in more moderate states your theory would be substantiated. But just looking at NH versus SC, its hard to think he is losing popularity. btw, it would seem that having double digit leads in states would be significant enough to believe he wins the nomination...
Trump will win and it will be hilarious. The best part is that GOP Trump supporters don't even know they are the joke. I spit out like a sewer hole Yet still recieve your kiss How can I measure up to anyone now After such a love as this?
- Maybe a lot of evangelicals in South Carolina aren't single-issue voters (i.e. a candidate's faith and/or whether he's pro-life). Perhaps Trump ticks off enough other positive boxes in their minds that they do not care about his faith and whatnot...they're willing to overlook that. They probably find Trump's "tell it like it is in a blunt way" approach quite refreshing. - A lot of them probably see the corruption in the federal government just as clearly as most other people, and they are angry and tired of Washington and want to blow it all up. - Many of them probably sense how slimy Cruz is - both in the media (debates, ads, etc.), his high rate of lying even compared to other politicians, his treatment of other candidates like Carson, the smarmy way he talks even when he tries to be funny, and in the nasty way his campaign has conducted his ground game. And they are turned off by that. Slimy people tend to be untrustworthy and just make most people's skin crawl. Evangelical or no. Cruz is just very unlikable and has a hard time connecting with people. He may win Texas on Super Tuesday, but other than that I think he will struggle to finish higher than 3rd in any other state anytime soon. I think there's a decent chance that this primary will be headed towards a brokered convention.
Kasich is staying in for no other reason then a backroom deal made so Trump doesn't win Ohio. They are pushing Rubio hard and he wiill start winning after the SEC and it gets to more moderate states. They do not want Trump to take Ohio Expect Rubios VP to be Kasich or he atleast has a chance. It will be between Kasich and Haley
Not that my vote matters in Texas, but I will vote against Trump or Cruz if they are the nominee, no matter if it is Sanders or Clinton. I'm not sure what I would do if Rubio/Kasich was the GOP ticket vs. Hillary. I like and respect Sanders (same with Kasich) and I think most of his more unworkable ideas will be moderated into some sort of passable form once he actually has to govern and build consensuses/consensi (I may have just made that word up).
I'm somewhat surprised that Jeb didn't stay in until at least super Tuesday. One interesting question that Chuck Todd brought up to Sanders this morning on Meet the Press was considering how that even though Bush raised over $100 million he did terribly and is out then how much influence does money really have in elections?
Speaking mathematically: $ is a necessary but insufficient condition of political success in the USA. Money alone won't do it, but without money, there's no real chance of gaining any major office in this country now.
Even though Rubio will likely get most of Bush's votes just adding them to his numbers he still comes up short. Even adding Kasich's it is still short of Trump's. At the moment it still looks very much like it's Trump's race.
