Regularized Adjust Plus-Minus (RAPM) numbers for Rockets 2013-14 are out

Sure. The numbers are clear. Jones is the least important player on our team according that chart. McFail must be the dumbest coach insisting on starting the guy.

 

Are you right? No. You have totally missed the boat on understanding these numbers.

 

Slightly OT

If you use firefox, there's an extension called TableTools2 that allows you to sort/filter any table (e.g like the one you see on http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2014.html). Makes sorting/filtering possible right on the page without having to copy and paste into excel or some other spreadsheet program.

 

This is RAPM. Certainly not a "serious" stat. And I have a spreadsheet open currently that lists the the exact same data as the OP's. Have had for days. But Morey will have much more concise data available. There is a large bridge between Morey's data and fan data. And that gap makes fan's interpretation of NBA data difficult. Just an observation.

 

Not aware of one. If anyone finds one, I'd like to know too.

For those of you more familiar with this stat and stats in general, is there any value with using the "error of estimation" as an indication of consistency of player or is that a misuse?

Iguodala, Harden, Ellis, Sessions, and Bellinelli lead that category with 1.5.

 

Obviously these stats have flaws lol.

But to be fair Jones is pretty bad on defense, and goes through stretches of games where he doesn't box out at all.

 

Good post. Regarding this issue, btw, I don't think RAPM tells you how good a player is offensively. Rather, it tells you how much the player contributes to the team's offense in ways outside of direct scoring (e.g., does the player's mere presence help his teammates score).

I am trying to understand how it could be that Lin can have a high TS% while still contributing negatively to the offense (and very negatively it seems!). I have heard that RAPM deals with collinearity issues well, so I think you're right, the whole "Lin plays most of his minutes with bench players argument" cannot really be a valid explanation for his low RAPM offensive numbers.

My only guess is that Lin does also play quite a few minutes with Harden, and in those lineups, the offense may suffer because of fit, redundant skillsets between the two, or whatever it may be (I don't really know, just guessing here). Can someone offer an explanation for this?

I have read that one of the main weaknesses of RAPM is that it "regresses" low minutes bench players with bad +/- to the league mean. What this could mean is that there is a chance the Rockets' bench is even worse than this list indicates! Of course, it could also be that other bench players on other teams have more abysmal RAPM's (I haven't checked, but maybe that's something to look at?)

 

RAPM is not a reliable stat with just half season's of data, especially for those with limited minutes.

 

Beverly 5th best in the league? Only thing that tells me is the metric is rubbish.

 

Are you trying to suggest we don't need Rondo because Beverley ranks 5th in this stat?

 

And you just summed up the problems with RAPM in one concise post. xRAPM however is a different beast. I lean heavily on xRAPM. RAPM is on par with PER. Nuff said.

 

lol

Is this guy for real?

 

would you be able to explain the difference between the two? Everyone raves about xRAPM

 

Happy now?

 

RAPM has its limitations, but is still much better than PER. RAPM does a decent job with defense. If you look at RAPM with PIE, you can determine if the offensive RAPM is tied to a player's ability or just being in very good situations. RAPM can also show that Beverley clearly fits better with starters than Lin.

 

Pretty much. xRAPM is what I like to call a black box stat. No definition is available to check out its algorithms. However people have argued with me in advanced stats forums that it has been mostly explained. I am not convinced. But xRAPM's originator is certainly one of the sharpest tools in the shed.

RAPM however is well understood. But the Bayesian season weightings are still defined by whoever generates the data. The "x" in front of xRAPM brings in box score metrics into the algorithm. I truly have no idea why or how it works. But xRAPM is by far the best metric available to fans to estimate a players worth. I have based season projections on just summing up the xRAPM of each team's players and just stack ranking them.

 

Learn to spell first

 

Okay. Then can you explain the difference between xRAPM and RAPM? AND, if xRAPM is so good, then where can I find it? Thanks!

 

I just gave it my best shot. I do not have access to the underlying algorithms that generate xRAPM. But I can tell you where to find it:

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/