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Regularized Adjust Plus-Minus (RAPM) numbers for Rockets 2013-14 are out

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Zergling, Feb 23, 2014.

  1. Zergling

    Zergling Member

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    http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2014.html

    I put these numbers in a spreadsheet and filtered out all the non-Rockets (and Rockets that aren't contributors):

    [​IMG]

    A few noteworthy Rockets observations:
    • The numbers are clear: Beverley not only ranks the best in RAPM on our team, he's #5 in the entire league! Jeremy Lin by the way is only 178th. Speaking of Lin, it's surprising that it's his defense that's considered better than average while is offense is considered below average, considering how Lin supporters constantly reference his uber-high TS%. Anyway regarding Beverley, let's just drop the Rajon Rondo discussion because PG isn't even remotely a weakness for us (especially on the defensive end).
    • Once again, Howard and Asik are insanely above average defensively and surprisingly the same offensively in terms of being below average. It doesn't make sense based on the eye-test, but the problem is we tend to focus on what Dwight can do with his post moves and mostly forgive him for the turnovers, offensive fouls, and missed free throws. RAPM doesn't.
    • Parsons is a barely above average player according to his RAPM in previous years, and nothing much has changed this year either. I don't buy any of the Rondo rumors, but I think it would be foolish to label him as untouchable. If Minnesota is interested in him in a Kevin Love package, the Rockets are absolutely including him. I don't think there's a remote chance the Rockets give Parsons big money, because quite frankly -- he doesn't deserve it. There are teams that will however since he clearly passes the eye test.
    • Our two superstars are once again polar opposites. Harden is tied for 2nd in offense in the league but below average on defense. Howard/Asik are 5th and 7th respectively in defense but both are below average on offense. Harden/Howard aren't even in the top 30 according to RAPM. They are both great all-stars and elite at their specialty, but neither should be considered superstars because of their deficiencies.
    • Terrance Jones is terrible on defense -- worst on the team to be exact. Not news to anyone that has watched him guard elite PFs, but this just adds data confirmation. RAPM favors Motiejunas over Jones, mainly because defense. It's not good that our starting PF ranks 363 in RAPM. I predict the PF position will once again be the death of us in the playoffs.
    • Our bench is really mediocre and better on defense than offense. Morey's done a great job getting us two stars, but he really has to work on shoring up the depth in the off-season.
    Here are some of my non-Rockets observations:
    • I can haz Kevin Love? I'm pretty certain he's Morey's #1 target, and acquiring him is even more critical considering that PF is once again our Achilles Heel. You can guarantee that everyone outside of Harden, Howard, Beverley, and maybe Asik are candidates to be dealt to Minny. Thankfully, players like Parsons, Lin, Jones, and D-Mo have a much higher value on the trade front than their RAPM numbers.
    • It's time we acknowledge that the Golden State Warriors are an ELITE defensive team. They're 3rd in points given up per 100 possessions, and it's not a surprising considering they have 3 players (Iguodala, Bogut, and Green) ranked in the top 25 on defense. Iguodala was an incredible signing for them, though I think long term they'll regret that contract they gave him.
    • LeBron James indeed has regressed on defense significantly, but his offensive production is still untouched. He's still the MVP of the league. Durant ranks 15th here (11th on offense) which is obviously elite but probably not as high as people would expect.
    Thoughts?
     
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  2. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    Beverly sucks. These numbers can't be real.
     
  3. quatin

    quatin Member

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    According to these stats, we can get rid of Howard. Worse defender than Asik and only 0.3 points better on offense? Might as well get rid of that gargantuan max contract and sign Asik up for another $8 mil/year deal. Amirite? lol
     
  4. basketballholic

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    Basketball is a team game. Everybody else effects everybody else's numbers and efficiency. Lin is playing the bulk of his minute with the bench brigade. All the guys at the bottom of the totem pole play the illustrious 4 position for us and at least 2 of them have been on the floor with Lin for the majority of his bench minutes.

    And lastly, Jones is the absolute worst of all and he plays the majority of his time alongside Dwight and Harden. That should tell you something.
     
  5. Zergling

    Zergling Member

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    That's the whole point of this being adjusted plus-minus. This stat adjusts for the very factor you're stating here.
     
  6. Zergling

    Zergling Member

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    "Worse" is a pretty relative description here. Dwight is still 7th overall in defense. That doesn't equate to shipping him out. This stat is just a reminder that Asik is still incredible on the defensive end. Dwight being a negative on offense tells me that while he can pack the box score, he doesn't do it efficiently.
     
  7. Zergling

    Zergling Member

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    Did you watch the game tonight bro? Your eyes have been deceiving you, well, assuming you've even been watching the games.
     
  8. WinkFan

    WinkFan Contributing Member

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    Beverley does a nice job for us. However, if any metric says he is 5th best in the league, then your focus should be on why the metric failed in this case.
     
  9. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    I discovered them a while back. I resisted posting anything about them because they are on par with PER. This is NOT xRAPM as the source makes perfectly clear. xRAPM is gold. RAPM is pretty much just this side of worthless. Sorry.
     
  10. Cranberry_Juice

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    Boom Shakalaka!
     
  11. Furious Jam

    Furious Jam Contributing Member

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    I don't care what the numbers are - Parson makes tough shots when the possession breaks down, and he usually ends up taking the opponent's best perimeter scorer. He may not be a great rapist per 48 minutes, but he's tremendous in tough situations.

    Nevertheless, if you can use him to get Kevin Love versus overpaying him, you go with Love.
     
  12. mfastx

    mfastx Member
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    Numbers are clear lol.

    This is a pretty accurate depiction IMO of how important guys are to the team. Obviously Beverley isn't our best player, but in that starting unit he is extremely important to the squad.
     
  13. Zergling

    Zergling Member

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    Actually what failed here is your ability to interpret the data. RAPM (like any of these statistics) shouldn't be used as end-all-be-all conclusions about players, but absolutely should be used to show us their value on offense and defense and with comparisons.

    The Beverley data tells me we're clearly a better team offensively and defensively with him on the court compared to Lin and that he should be starting. It makes sense for the Rockets because he's a decent shooter, doesn't turn the ball over, and creates extra possessions with his hustle. On defense, he's capable of forcing turnovers and shutting down shooters. The numbers are pretty reasonable.
     
  14. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    You know what OP? My best to you. It shows you have an inquisitive mind and are not afraid to search for more knowledge. I actually considered a post similar to yours. Keep up the good work!!!
     
  15. el gnomo

    el gnomo Member

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    lol what a dumb stat... check out this block:

    James Harden 4.2 -1.7 2.4 1.5 6967
    Dwight Howard -0.8 3.2 2.4 1.6 7243
    Russell Westbrook 1.4 1.0 2.4 1.9 3433
    Joe Johnson 2.2 0.2 2.4 1.6 6134
    Goran Dragic 2.0 0.4 2.4 1.7 6764
    J.R. Smith 2.1 0.3 2.4 1.7 5653

    J.R. effin Smith tied with Harden, Dwert, and Dragic. cool story bro
     
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  16. SPBR

    SPBR Member

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    Channing Frye > Duncan
    Ginobili > Durant

    Bev's offense at 2.6 > Dragic's offense at 2.0 in a season Dragic is putting allstar numbers and high shooting efficiency 50-40-77.

    Maybe someone can help me understand this stat better.
     
  17. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    Oh wow. People. The OP actually did do good work. He just does not have the experience to discern the relative worth of advanced stats. RAPM (the data he based his post on) is historically slightly better than PER.
     
  18. Zergling

    Zergling Member

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    Smith shoots a bunch of threes and makes 37% of them. Reminiscent of Rio Grande Valley players. He doesn't turn the ball over much either. Why are you surprised his offense isn't considered terrible?
     
  19. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    OP I just rep'd you. You deserve it.
     
  20. Zergling

    Zergling Member

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    I wouldn't interpret these stats as Player A > Player B. After all, this is a plus/minus statistic so context and role matters.

    Frye is a role player. He shoots a bunch of threes and makes them at a 40% clip. Very efficient offensive player, and isn't being asked to do as much as say a Tim Duncan. That's why his offense RAPM is so high.

    Let's look at Asik/Dwight. No one will argue that Dwight is a better offensive player than him, but when Dwight's on the bench, the Rockets' offense doesn't take a huge drop off. That's why his offense RAPM is not great. On the other hand, we are crap defensively when he's on the bench, so that's why his defense RAPM is elite.
     

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