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Reasons to reserve excitement over #2 pick...

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Landry's Tooth, Jul 28, 2021.

  1. Landry's Tooth

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    James Wiseman
    Ja Morant
    Marvin Bagley
    Lonzo Ball
    Brandon Ingram
    D'Angelo Russell
    Jabari Parker
    Victor Oladipo
    Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
    Derrick Williams
    Evan Turner
    Hasheem Thabeet
    Michael Beasley
    Kevin Durant
    LaMarcus Aldridge

    I would say there's maybe 4 guys there where the team was satisfied with what they got... so figure 20% chance of a hit.

    There's also the factor that these are bad teams picking the players and they are usually bad because of talent evaluation; so there's some bias.

    No matter who the pick is I'm reserving some expectations...
     
  2. Rockets4Life13

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    This doesn’t really mean anything. This assumes that there is some kind of magic that prevents #2 picks from being good players.

    the trick is to make the right choice and you’re good.
     
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  3. kjayp

    kjayp Contributing Member

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    i almost always prefer a known commodity over the risk of an unproven rookie...

    ...but depending on your situation, sometimes u gotta roll the dice and hope for the best...



    we've had what... 3 of the those drafted at #2 on our roster... lol
     
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  4. jamisonrocket

    jamisonrocket Member
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    Just about every pick # has a list that looks identical to this. It means nothing...

    [​IMG]
     
  5. napalm06

    napalm06 Fertitta-McNair School of Management
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    I would definitely like to revisit those drafts and understand the hype that drove some of those guys to go #2 over others
     
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  6. ROXTXIA

    ROXTXIA Contributing Member
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    Wait, you excluded.....

    DARKO MILICIC?!!!!??!
    @napalm06
    With Joe Dumars not taking Carmelo, Bosh, or Wade, I'm hoping the excuse was cocaine, but I never heard of such an issue. But as an excuse it would lend sympathy to a disastrous choice, although the Pistons did win a title the next season, with Darko delivering Gatorade to the real players: "Here you go." "Green?!?! I wanted the red."
     
  7. Reeko

    Reeko Member
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  8. eliefor3

    eliefor3 Member

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    This is misleading. Sucky teams usually suck bc they don't have a good front office so they make bad picks. Another compounding factor is most drafts are not filled with good top prospects.


    So if you have a competent front office and the draft is deep then you should get a good pick
     
  9. Vivi

    Vivi Member

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    I mean, i'm not sure why you would consider failures guys like Wiseman, Lonzo or even Bagley (yet), hell, even Oladipo was really good before getting hit hard by injuries, the only busts there are Jabari, MKG, Turner, Derrick Williams, Beasley and Thabeet,

    You could make the same argument for the #1 pick, it's not like Kwame Brown, Bargnani, Bennett, Oden, Fultz, Wiggins aren't there. And if you think Oladipo has to be considered a bust, so are Blake Griffin, Wall, Rose and others.
     
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  10. kjayp

    kjayp Contributing Member

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    are u that confident that we dont fall into the 'sucky teams' scenario?

    lol
     
  11. treyk3

    treyk3 Contributing Member

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    Or just have fun?

    Who cares what the past says.

    This is the present.

    Let people enjoy this without needlessly being a downer. Everyone knows that Thabeet went before Harden and that Bowie went before Jordan.
     
  12. DasouthDakota

    DasouthDakota Rookie

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    AGREED.

    If Mobley was the pick, this thread would be reasons to be excited about #2 pick.

    As petty as this may seem, I wouldn't have a problem if we selected Mobley. I think he can be a fine player, the only reason tipping the scale towards Green to me is the Mobley mob are a bunch of insufferable human beings. Almost MAGA-esque. I don't know if I can deal with another extended amount of that again.
     
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  13. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    This is a blanket statement without weighing the prospect pool of each draft. Some drafts were really bad with maybe one or two guys who have "it" .. bust odds are exponentially higher in those drafts. We landed on a goldmine of a draft IMO and it should hedge some of those bad stats. Next year by some accounts is deeper so the ROX couldn't have "picked" a better time to rebuild.
     
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  14. BonziWellsGOAT

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  15. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Houston Knicks fan
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    [​IMG]
     
  16. alethios

    alethios Member

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    A lot has been stated about choosing BPA over fit, but in some of these cases, fit was a significant factor in them not living up to expectations.
     
    Why not? and burlesk like this.
  17. HTown_TMac

    HTown_TMac Member

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    I hate this. So, if Green was taken 1st instead of second, he will be better?

    Meaning, if Cade is dropped to second, he going to be a bust? Got it.
     
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  18. Landry's Tooth

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    Yes, that is what i pointed out. Thank you for agreeing.
     
  19. Landry's Tooth

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    I wasn't saying a "bust" but for Orlando he was... The team that drafted him didn't get the value for it...
     
  20. Landry's Tooth

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    Vivi pointed this out... it has nothing to do with a hex or something. If you look at #1, #3, and #4 you'll see a lot of busts too.

    It's to point out know matter how well thought of as a prospect the players getting drafted are, many of them (if not most) fail to live up to the expectation their team has taking them #2.

    If Jalen Green is Devonte Graham, he's not a bust, but he's not a #2 worthy pick...

    The built in bias about bad teams picking is true; but I believe that doesn't apply to Houston since they aren't constantly picking bad players. So I believe the Rockets are an exception to that.

    I'm fine with the gamble at #2. Let's get a guy on a rookie contract that might hit and then we have space for 2 max guys in 2 years to pair with the pick and Porter/Wood. That would make their starting lineup 5 deep and possibly the best in the NBA.

    I think that's always been the plan is for after next season or the one after (if not trading Wall's expiring and picks for a star).
     

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