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Ready The Clown Car: The First Batch of Democrats Are Ready To Announce Their 2020 Bids

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Jan 1, 2019.

  1. biff17

    biff17 Member

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    Man you want to see drama so bad, you are extrapolating something from nothing.

    How do you think winning Iowa will change voting patterns?
     
  2. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Member
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  3. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Because then the leftist voters could well see Bernie as their chance to rally the troops and maybe even win the nomination. He probably does not have much more of a chance than he did against Hillary Clinton, I will grant you that. But very probably has a better chance than any of the other challengers against Joe Biden at this point. And if he wins Iowa, the first primary, with New Hampshire following the next week (which shares a long border with his home state of Vermont), that could help Bernie build some real momentum.
     
  4. biff17

    biff17 Member

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    Keep Hope Alive!

    It's funny that you extrapolate your favorable outcome from this particular poll but ignore the fact that Trump loses to the top 3 Democratic candidates in the general.

    So should we pay attention to polls or not?
     
  5. adoo

    adoo Member

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    ,​

    Mojo's false equivalency

    earth to Mojo, there were no investigation on "no- drama" obama​



    Mojo parroting a false narrative

    ur intellectual dishonesty manifests itself.

    Mueller cited the DoJ policy that prevents him from charging the sitting president.

    the 2nd part of the Mueller report provides facts documenting / detailing
    10 instances of Trump obstructing justice,
    acts that can be prosecuted once he is no longer POTUS​
     
    #925 adoo, May 20, 2019
    Last edited: May 20, 2019
  6. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    It depends on what you mean by 'Pay attention'. Polls like these are clearly not determinative, even when they are conducted just a few days before the election. But 21 months out? This just gives us a fuzzy sense of some trends that may be developing. It is something to discuss and speculate around.

    Why, do you think this poll is probably egregiously misleading or so far off the mark that it should be shunned even for casual discussion purposes?
     
  7. biff17

    biff17 Member

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  8. Nook

    Nook Member

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    [​IMG]
     
    Rashmon likes this.
  9. biff17

    biff17 Member

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    Never said the poll was misleading, just wonder why you are forming a hypothesis on this one poll and thinking it's a trend when most polls have Biden with a double digit lead.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html

    And by the way He has a even bigger lead in New Hampshire.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html

    If we are speculating the discussion should be about what the majority of polls are actually saying.
     
  10. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    If you want to speculate about what the poll averages mean, please go ahead. I will look forward to reading whatever you publish about that.

    But the individual state primary polls for the first few primaries are also interesting. I hope it is OK for me or others to evaluate and speculate about those too, even if we do not get your advance approval before doing so.
     
  11. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Member
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    lol

    article speculating on whether the Dems are headed inevitably toward a brokered convention:

    The rules are different for Democrats, and that makes the possibility that a candidate can win an early majority of the delegates in a crowded field far less likely. Instead of “winner-take-all” or “winner-takes-most” allocation, Democrats allocate delegates proportionately meaning that even a candidate who comes in third or fourth place in a given primary will get at least a few delegates while the candidate who comes in first will still get most of the delegates but not nearly as many as they would under a “winner take all” or “winner takes most” allocation system. The most immediate result of this is that in a contested primary where there are several candidates behind the frontrunner picking up delegates as the calendar moves forward, it will take longer for someone to rack up a majority than it would under the other allocation methods. It also makes at least the possibility that nobody will have a majority on the first ballot at a convention more likely.

    The other thing to take into account here, of course, is the fact that Democrats have significantly changed their rules regarding how superdelegates work. Previously, these delegates, made up primarily of Democratic officeholders and party leaders, were allowed to back specific candidates and to vote on the first ballot at the convention. With the changes that were adopted last year, these delegates remain free to back whoever they wish but they would not be able to vote on the first ballot. This change would not have had a real impact on recent Democratic conventions since recent Democratic nominees — including but not limited to Al Gore, John Kerry, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton — all walked into their conventions with a sufficient number of “regular” delegates to win the nomination. Indeed, we have not had a brokered convention in the modern era and the odds of having one now are pretty low. Nonetheless, we’re likely to see speculation about a brokered Milwaukee convention for the Democrats right up until the point where such talk becomes mathematically unnecessary.​

    https://www.outsidethebeltway.com/democrats-headed-for-a-brokered-convention
     
  12. Rashmon

    Rashmon Member

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    This thread is so much more entertaining when it is just the Os & Mojo show without interruption.

    In honor of humorless political cartoons, this one's for mojo...
    [​IMG]
     
  13. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    How is the early state of the Democrat primary contest affecting public perception?


    As discussed a few posts earlier in this thread, this number fluid and it is not determinative of what public perception will be a year or 18 months from now. But can we safely say that people are not exactly blown away by the impressiveness of the presidential primary field for the Democrats at this stage?

    And is there anyone left for the Democrats still on the sidelines who could still ride in and save the day?
     
  14. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Member
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    Cuomo and Hillary
     
  15. mtbrays

    mtbrays Member
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    This is disrespectful to Presidents Huckabee and Cruz
     
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  16. biff17

    biff17 Member

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    You can evaluate and speculate all you want and I will continue to comment on your blatant attempt to fit the data into your prescribed narrative.


    OK.
     
  17. biff17

    biff17 Member

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    Once again you find a poll that shows what you want to believe, yet in his actual poll Biden beats Trump.

    https://scottrasmussen.com/general_election_matchups/

    Biden 43% Trump 36%; Trump 38% Sanders 37%


    If the 2020 election for President were held today, 43% of voters would cast their ballot for Joe Biden and 36% would prefer Donald Trump. A ScottRasmussen.com national survey found that 8% would vote for a third option, 5% would not vote, and 8% are not sure what they would do.

    Biden’s seven-point lead is down slightly from a nine-point advantage a month ago and eleven-points two months ago.

    Biden leads the president by ten among female voters but trails by three among male voters. Both Biden and the president do well within their own party. Biden leads by a 40% to 27% margin among Independent voters."

    So what should hold more weight?
     
  18. HTM

    HTM Member

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    Prognostications about the 2020 results hold little water after the prognostications about the 2016 results.
     
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  19. biff17

    biff17 Member

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    Tell that to Mojo he is the one prognosticating.

    Fun fact.

    Polls were more accurate than not they were in the margin of error.
     
  20. HTM

    HTM Member

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    Uh, Ok? did I mention polls? I said, "prognostication" - yes, the prognostications were hugely wrong, considering they had Hillary winning in a blow out fashion and the opposite took place. The public temperature was not accurately read.
     
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