Ready The Clown Car: The First Batch of Democrats Are Ready To Announce Their 2020 Bids

Trump has multiple roads to victory, IMO. (IF the economy remains strong, usual caveat.)

-If there's a successful third candidate (independent or green), pulling 2-5 points from the dem candidate.

-If impeachment raises his numbers like it did Clinton

-The center vs. left democratic primary fight this time around is going to be ugly. The centrist Old Guard has the power vs the younger, much more enthusiastic left base. The dem candidates could end up hurting each other a lot, with lots of infighting amongst dem voters. and if a centrist wins, whatever the 2020 equivalent of the berniebros will be may sit it out or vote for the green candidate or something.

 

Medicare for all would have been very extreme in 2008 (even Obama's "public option" was considered too far) and 2012, and a bit extreme when Bernie got everyone talking about it in 2015. Now?

Seventy percent of Americans support 'Medicare for all' in new poll
This includes a majority of Republicans at 52%.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...percent-of-americans-support-medicare-for-all

This does a slightly better job of breaking it down:
https://theglobepost.com/2018/12/04/medicare-for-all-support/

Here's an even better one, which shows how differently people respond depending on how the question is framed:
https://morningconsult.com/2018/11/...l-health-plan-unless-its-called-single-payer/


That means the branding war is still on, so it will be interesting to see how this polls throughout 2019.

In any case, there are enough polls showing a strong enough majority support that this issue isn't that dangerous anymore. I expect to see the majority of all dem candidates to be on board, and if they're not, they'll have something lighter like a 'public option' in mind. Let's remember that in the 2018 election, voters said healthcare was their #1 concern.

This isn't to say that there will be some positions taken that will be seen as extreme left, like banning ICE.

 

Who the hell likes their health insurance? It's just that some people prefer the devil they know over the devil they don't. But, if you believe our healthcare industry is broken (and it seems most people do), you won't be able to fix it unless you manage to overcome fear, confusion and doubt. Don't know if this is the right plan, but fear of what comes next if you lose the option you're accustomed to is not a strategy for success.

That's pretty interesting.

 

the economy was strong and he still lost all those states.

no matter how ugly the primary gets there will still be a strong anti Trump vote people will definitely be voting strong to get rid of Trump.

 

he has to win 2of those states and he only won them with about a 200,000 margin and don't see where he has broadened his support.

There is also a chance Arizona comes in to play.

I don see how he can do anything to turn around his wrong track numbers he has no agenda.

 

Agreed, can never say never anymore. Plus there are tons of unknowable externalizes that can happen: war with Iran, markets, price of oil, how the Mueller report plays out, how good/bad the dem candidates are.

 

i believe that Trump is unelectable because voters now know that he is incompetent and a embarrassment.

I don't think the Democrats can have a candidate as bad as Hillary and even she won the popular vote, that seems to be forgotten, I wonder why?

not saying it's a sure bet all trends seem to be poo ting in that direction.

but please tell me how you see Trump performing as well as he did in 2016 or better.

 

I agree you can never say never but how does any of those things benefit Trump?

even if Mueller finds nothing else he has found that Trump was surrounded by criminals and incompetence which directly goes to his decision making.

i mean really what does Trump have to run on?

The fact that he is the most divisive President in history?

i think the fact that people on both sides are fed up will show in the polls, Republicans have most of what they want and are fed up with him tarnishing the brand.

 

Couple things here...

The state of the economy is going to play a smaller role in 2020 than in probably any presidential election ever. Yes, it's something he can lean on but if it was so great and was so important to people, there would be some sign in his current polling.

The Clinton impeachment was in his 2nd term. Yes, he finished polling well but the fact that no one had to vote for him again certainly played in the numbers.

I do agree on your 3rd part. As someone who is closer to center, I do find myself annoyed with the far left and they're stronger now than in any other presidential election I can remember. I do think, while the primary is going to be bloody, there will be a point where many people remember what we're really up against. The Remove Trump sentiment will ultimately be more powerful...I really hope.

 

Can anybody tell me what Trump will run on this time.

 

I received this email today from Beto O'Rourke. I'm sure others may have received it as well. I was hoping to use it to open his "official" thread but here it is...

 

gee, you must have missed @Nolen 's excellent post on this. Here you go: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.php...-their-2020-bids.295371/page-20#post-12201488