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Rating Centers Defensively

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by durvasa, Jan 29, 2011.

  1. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    Using statistics from B-R.com over prior 5 seasons and some defensive adjusted +/- (DAPM) results recently posted online (here), I came up with the following formula for predicting a center's defensive impact:

    DEF +/- ~= DSPM = -12.34 + 0.12*Ht + 0.95*STL% + 0.16*BLK% + 0.08*DRB%


    The idea of regressing boxscore stats onto +/- numbers is nothing new. It is referred to as statistical +/-. As you can see, I'm using player height (in inches), and steal, block, and defensive rebounding rates. The pool of players I used to come up with the above formula included every center or forward-center who played at least 2500 minute between 05/06 through last season. I excluded one player from the sample -- Chuck Hayes. The reason being that he has unique combination of very small height and very strong defensive APM, and I didn't want that to potentially distort the prediction.

    Here is the ranking of centers over the prior 5 seasons based on the above formula:

    Code:
    [U][B]Rk   Player              Ht   STL%   BLK%   DRB%      DAPM     DSPM     diff[/B][/U]
    1    Marcus Camby        83   1.8    6.3    32.1      +2.1     +2.6     +0.5
    2    Ben Wallace         81   2.3    4.3    22.4      +2.4     +1.7     -0.7
    3    Dwight Howard       83   1.3    4.6    30.1      +1.5     +1.7     +0.2
    4    Dikembe Mutombo     86   0.9    5      26.3      +1.4     +1.4     +0.0
    5    Yao Ming            90   0.7    4.2    24.3      +2.3     +1.4     -0.9
    6    DeSagana Diop       85   1.4    5.8    19.5      +0.8     +1.4     +0.6
    7    JaVale McGee        85   1.2    6.8    19.6      -1.5     +1.3     +2.8
    8    Chris Andersen      82   1.2    7.5    21.9      +1.2     +1.3     +0.1
    9    Joel Przybilla      85   0.7    5      27.8      +2.2     +1.2     -1.0
    10   Andris Biedrins     83   1.4    3.6    25.1      +1.4     +1.2     -0.2
    11   Tim Duncan          83   1.1    4.2    27.4      +3.0     +1.2     -1.8
    12   Joakim Noah         83   1.5    3.8    22.8      +0.9     +1.2     +0.3
    13   Nene Hilario        83   2      2.6    19.1      +1.5     +1.2     -0.3
    14   Samuel Dalembert    83   0.9    5.7    26.1      +0.5     +1.1     +0.6
    15   Darko Milicic       85   1.2    5.3    19.2      +0.8     +1.1     +0.3
    16   Andrew Bogut        85   1.1    3.6    23.7      +2.9     +1.1     -1.8
    17   Marc Gasol          85   1.4    3.4    19.9      +0.9     +1.0     +0.1
    18   Chris Kaman         85   0.9    3.8    24.8      +1.0     +1.0     -0.0
    19   Chuck Hayes         78   2.4    1.6    21.5      +2.7     +1.0     -1.7
    20   Anderson Varejao    82   1.8    2.1    21.7      +2.5     +1.0     -1.5
    21   Francisco Elson     85   1.6    2.5    18.8      +0.9     +1.0     +0.1
    22   Dan Gadzuric        83   1.6    3.6    19.6      +0.2     +1.0     +0.8
    23   Emeka Okafor        82   1.1    4.4    25.5      +1.1     +1.0     -0.1
    24   Marcin Gortat       83   1      4.4    25.2      -0.2     +1.0     +1.2
    25   Amir Johnson        81   1.5    5.3    19.4      +2.4     +0.9     -1.5
    26   Shelden Williams    81   1.7    2.3    22.7      +0.3     +0.9     +0.6
    27   Zydrunas Ilgauskas  87   0.9    3.9    20.2      +1.7     +0.9     -0.8
    28   Johan Petro         85   1.3    2.6    20.8      -0.3     +0.9     +1.2
    29   Al Jefferson        82   1.2    3.3    25        -1.5     +0.9     +2.4
    30   Tyson Chandler      85   0.8    3.4    24.6      +1.8     +0.8     -1.0
    31   DeAndre Jordan      83   0.9    4.9    23.3      -1.1     +0.8     +1.9
    32   Jeff Foster         83   1.5    1.5    22.5      +1.1     +0.8     -0.3
    33   Shaquille O'Neal    85   0.8    3.9    22.7      +0.1     +0.7     +0.6
    34   Kurt Thomas         81   1.3    2.7    24.8      +2.1     +0.7     -1.4
    35   Al Horford          82   1.2    2.6    24.2      +0.8     +0.7     -0.1
    36   Antonio McDyess     81   1.5    2      23.2      +0.8     +0.7     -0.1
    37   Dirk Nowitzki       85   1.1    1.8    22.4      +1.0     +0.7     -0.3
    38   Zaza Pachulia       83   1.7    1.4    18.8      +0.7     +0.7     -0.0
    39   Adonal Foyle        82   1.2    5.4    18.4      +1.0     +0.7     -0.3
    40   Alonzo Mourning     82   0.5    9.4    18.2      +1.6     +0.6     -1.0
    41   Andrew Bynum        85   0.6    4.7    21.6      +0.6     +0.6     -0.0
    42   Nazr Mohammed       82   1.2    3.3    21.4      -1.1     +0.6     +1.7
    43   Jermaine O'Neal     83   0.8    5      21.3      +1.8     +0.6     -1.2
    44   Lorenzen Wright     83   1.6    2.2    17.2      +1.3     +0.6     -0.7
    45   Brook Lopez         85   1      4      17.5      -1.3     +0.5     +1.8
    46   Brendan Haywood     85   0.8    4.6    18.7      +2.0     +0.5     -1.5
    47   Yi Jianlian         85   1.1    2.4    19.4      -0.7     +0.5     +1.2
    48   Jamaal Magloire     83   0.7    2.8    26.2      +0.1     +0.5     +0.4
    49   Pau Gasol           85   0.8    3.4    20.8      +0.4     +0.5     +0.1
    50   Spencer Hawes       85   0.9    3.1    20.1      -1.4     +0.5     +1.9
    51   Roy Hibbert         86   0.7    4.9    17        +1.8     +0.5     -1.3
    52   Josh Boone          82   1.2    3.1    20.4      -0.7     +0.5     +1.2
    53   Hilton Armstrong    83   1.4    3.3    16.1      +0.5     +0.5     -0.0
    54   Amare Stoudemire    82   1.2    2.8    20.5      -0.4     +0.4     +0.8
    55   Ronny Turiaf        82   1      5.7    17.1      +0.1     +0.4     +0.3
    56   Kendrick Perkins    82   0.7    5.1    21.8      +0.6     +0.4     -0.2
    57   Brad Miller         83   1.2    1.6    20.8      +0.9     +0.4     -0.5
    58   Kwame Brown         83   1.2    2.1    19.7      +0.7     +0.4     -0.3
    59   Erick Dampier       83   0.7    4      21.9      +0.8     +0.4     -0.4
    60   Chris Wilcox        82   1.3    1.4    20.8               +0.3     +0.3
    61   Rasho Nesterovic    85   1      3.4    15.7      +1.2     +0.3     -0.9
    62   Chris Bosh          82   1      2.2    22.5      +1.1     +0.3     -0.8
    63   Channing Frye       83   1.2    2      18.7      +1.0     +0.3     -0.7
    64   Theo Ratliff        82   0.9    5.8    16.3      +0.5     +0.3     -0.2
    65   Etan Thomas         81   0.8    5      20.1      +0.1     +0.2     +0.1
    66   Raef LaFrentz       83   1      2.9    18.3      -0.7     +0.2     +0.9
    67   LaMarcus Aldridge   83   1.2    2.3    16.5      +1.7     +0.1     -1.6
    68   Mehmet Okur         83   0.9    1.8    21        -1.4     +0.1     +1.5
    69   Tony Battie         83   1.1    2      17.9      +0.4     +0.1     -0.3
    70   Mark Blount         85   1      2.1    15.6      -0.5     +0.1     +0.6
    71   P.J. Brown          83   1      2.2    18.2      +1.5     +0.1     -1.4
    72   Nenad Krstic        85   0.8    2.1    16.9      +1.5     +0.0     -1.5
    73   Ryan Hollins        85   0.9    3.3    12.2      -0.9     -0.1     +0.8
    74   Steven Hunter       85   0.4    4      15.7               -0.2     -0.2
    75   Joel Anthony        81   0.8    6.4    12.1      +0.5     -0.2     -0.7
    76   Fabricio Oberto     82   1      1.2    17.6      -0.4     -0.2     +0.2
    77   Mikki Moore         83   0.9    1.8    15.9      -0.1     -0.3     -0.2
    78   Jason Maxiell       79   1.1    3.5    16.1      -1.2     -0.3     +0.9
    79   Melvin Ely          82   0.8    2.3    16.8      +0.9     -0.3     -1.2
    80   Primoz Brezec       86   0.5    1.4    14.7      -1.6     -0.4     +1.2
    81   Eddy Curry          83   0.6    1.6    15.9      -1.7     -0.6     +1.1
    
    The last column is the difference between DSPM and DAPM. If you have confidence in the accuracy of the DAPM rating, you could maybe interpret it as the extent to which a player's individual numbers overrates or underrates their defensive impact.

    Using the above formula, here is how it rates centers this year:

    Code:
    [U][B]Rk   Player              Ht   STL%   BLK%   DRB%      DAPM     DSPM     diff[/B][/U]
    1    Marcus Camby        83   1.6    5.3    35.4      -0.2     +2.5     +2.7
    2    Dwight Howard       83   1.8    4.8    30.2      +0.8     +2.2     +1.4
    3    Ben Wallace         81   2.5    3.6    23        -1.4     +1.9     +3.3
    4    Andrew Bogut        85   1      6.1    26.8      +2.1     +1.6     -0.5
    5    JaVale McGee        85   1.1    7.2    21.4      -0.2     +1.4     +1.6
    6    Tim Duncan          83   1.3    4.9    26.4      +1.9     +1.4     -0.5
    7    Joakim Noah         83   1.7    3.4    23.2      +0.2     +1.3     +1.1
    8    Greg Monroe         83   2.3    1.5    19.2      +0.1     +1.3     +1.2
    9    Andris Biedrins     83   1.6    2.6    25        +0.1     +1.2     +1.1
    10   Tyson Chandler      85   1      3.4    26.7      +1.7     +1.2     -0.5
    11   Marc Gasol          85   1.5    4.1    18.8      +0.9     +1.1     +0.2
    12   Omer Asik           85   1.2    4.8    20.6      +1.2     +1.1     -0.1
    13   Zydrunas Ilgauskas  87   1.1    4.4    19.4      +0.4     +1.1     +0.7
    14   DeMarcus Cousins    83   1.6    2.2    22.9      -0.5     +1.0     +1.5
    15   DeAndre Jordan      83   1.2    5.3    21.5      +0.6     +1.0     +0.4
    16   Anderson Varejao    82   1.4    3      24.8      +0.2     +1.0     +0.8
    17   Shaquille O'Neal    85   1.2    4.3    19.9      +0.4     +1.0     +0.6
    18   Nene Hilario        83   1.7    1.9    21        +0.1     +0.9     +0.8
    19   Marcin Gortat       83   0.9    3.6    25.5      -0.7     +0.8     +1.5
    20   Samuel Dalembert    83   0.6    6      24.3      +0.4     +0.8     +0.4
    21   Nazr Mohammed       82   1      4.9    22.8      -0.9     +0.7     +1.6
    22   Kurt Thomas         81   1.6    3.3    20.1      +1.2     +0.7     -0.5
    23   Semih Erden         85   1.3    3.1    17.6      -0.7     +0.7     +1.4
    24   Roy Hibbert         86   0.5    4.7    22.4      +0.8     +0.7     -0.1
    25   Al Horford          82   1.2    2.4    24.3      +0.3     +0.7     +0.4
    26   Antonio McDyess     81   1.5    1.9    22.9      +0.3     +0.6     +0.3
    27   Pau Gasol           85   0.9    3.8    20.4      +1.0     +0.6     -0.4
    28   Amare Stoudemire    82   1.3    4.3    18.6      -1.1     +0.6     +1.7
    29   Brad Miller         83   1.6    1.6    18.3      -0.5     +0.6     +1.1
    30   Emeka Okafor        82   0.6    4.5    25.9      +0.7     +0.5     -0.2
    31   Spencer Hawes       85   0.7    2.9    23.3      -0.3     +0.5     +0.8
    32   Ed Davis            82   1      4      21.5      -0.8     +0.5     +1.3
    33   Al Jefferson        82   0.8    4.6    22.2      -1.2     +0.5     +1.7
    34   Amir Johnson        81   1.4    3.1    18.4      +0.2     +0.4     +0.2
    35   Jason Smith         85   1.1    2.6    17        +1.4     +0.4     -1.0
    36   Chuck Hayes         78   1.8    2      19.8      +0.4     +0.3     -0.1
    37   Zaza Pachulia       83   1.3    1.5    19.3      -0.1     +0.3     +0.4
    38   Andrew Bynum        85   0.2    5.5    21.4      +1.1     +0.3     -0.8
    39   Channing Frye       83   1.1    2.4    19.2      -0.6     +0.3     +0.9
    40   Brendan Haywood     85   0.5    4.1    19.6      -0.1     +0.2     +0.3
    41   Kwame Brown         83   0.6    2      22.7               +0.0     +0.0
    42   Brook Lopez         85   1      3.4    11.9      +0.1     +0.0     -0.1
    43   Derrick Favors      82   0.8    2.8    18.3      +0.7     -0.1     -0.8
    44   Nenad Krstic        85   0.9    1.3    14.1      -0.5     -0.2     +0.3
    45   Anthony Tolliver    80   1.1    2.2    17.3      +1.1     -0.3     -1.4
    46   Robin Lopez         85   0.6    2.9    13.7      -0.7     -0.3     +0.4
    47   Jordan Hill         82   0.4    3.1    16.7      -1.7     -0.6     +1.1
    48   Joel Anthony        81   0.4    5.9    12.4      +0.9     -0.6     -1.5
    
    The DAPM column, in this case, is based on only a half-season worth of games and it is therefore extremely noisy. One thing that immediately jumps out is that using DSPM stabilizes the defensive rating considerably, and perhaps too much so. Marcus Camby and Ben Wallace continue to be at the top of the list because of the profile of their individual defensive numbers. Its questionable if that's really a good representation of their defensive impact at this point in their careers, though.

    Edit:

    And here is the ranking when I combine DSPM and DAPM (equal weighting). Sort of a mix of tangibles (DSPM) and intangibles (DAPM) is reflected in this ranking:

    Code:
    [U][B]Rk    Player              Ht    STL%    BLK%   DRB%     DAPM   DSPM   diff  DASPM[/B][/U]
    1     Andrew Bogut        85    1       6.1    26.8     +2.1   +1.6   -0.5  +1.9
    2     Tim Duncan          83    1.3     4.9    26.4     +1.9   +1.4   -0.5  +1.7
    3     Dwight Howard       83    1.8     4.8    30.2     +0.8   +2.2   +1.4  +1.5
    4     Tyson Chandler      85    1       3.4    26.7     +1.7   +1.2   -0.5  +1.5
    5     Marcus Camby        83    1.6     5.3    35.4     -0.2   +2.5   +2.7  +1.2
    6     Omer Asik           85    1.2     4.8    20.6     +1.2   +1.1   -0.1  +1.2
    7     Marc Gasol          85    1.5     4.1    18.8     +0.9   +1.1   +0.2  +1.0
    8     Kurt Thomas         81    1.6     3.3    20.1     +1.2   +0.7   -0.5  +1.0
    9     Jason Smith         85    1.1     2.6    17       +1.4   +0.4   -1.0  +0.9
    10    DeAndre Jordan      83    1.2     5.3    21.5     +0.6   +1.0   +0.4  +0.8
    11    Pau Gasol           85    0.9     3.8    20.4     +1.0   +0.6   -0.4  +0.8
    12    Joakim Noah         83    1.7     3.4    23.2     +0.2   +1.3   +1.1  +0.8
    13    Zydrunas Ilgauskas  87    1.1     4.4    19.4     +0.4   +1.1   +0.7  +0.8
    14    Roy Hibbert         86    0.5     4.7    22.4     +0.8   +0.7   -0.1  +0.8
    15    Greg Monroe         83    2.3     1.5    19.2     +0.1   +1.3   +1.2  +0.7
    16    Andrew Bynum        85    0.2     5.5    21.4     +1.1   +0.3   -0.8  +0.7
    17    Shaquille O'Neal    85    1.2     4.3    19.9     +0.4   +1.0   +0.6  +0.7
    18    Andris Biedrins     83    1.6     2.6    25       +0.1   +1.2   +1.1  +0.7
    19    Samuel Dalembert    83    0.6     6      24.3     +0.4   +0.8   +0.4  +0.6
    20    JaVale McGee        85    1.1     7.2    21.4     -0.2   +1.4   +1.6  +0.6
    21    Anderson Varejao    82    1.4     3      24.8     +0.2   +1.0   +0.8  +0.6
    22    Emeka Okafor        82    0.6     4.5    25.9     +0.7   +0.5   -0.2  +0.6
    23    Nene Hilario        83    1.7     1.9    21       +0.1   +0.9   +0.8  +0.5
    24    Al Horford          82    1.2     2.4    24.3     +0.3   +0.7   +0.4  +0.5
    25    Antonio McDyess     81    1.5     1.9    22.9     +0.3   +0.6   +0.3  +0.5
    26    Anthony Tolliver    80    1.1     2.2    17.3     +1.1   -0.3   -1.4  +0.4
    27    Chuck Hayes         78    1.8     2      19.8     +0.4   +0.3   -0.1  +0.4
    28    Amir Johnson        81    1.4     3.1    18.4     +0.2   +0.4   +0.2  +0.3
    29    Derrick Favors      82    0.8     2.8    18.3     +0.7   -0.1   -0.8  +0.3
    30    Ben Wallace         81    2.5     3.6    23       -1.4   +1.9   +3.3  +0.3
    31    DeMarcus Cousins    83    1.6     2.2    22.9     -0.5   +1.0   +1.5  +0.3
    32    Joel Anthony        81    0.4     5.9    12.4     +0.9   -0.6   -1.5  +0.2
    33    Spencer Hawes       85    0.7     2.9    23.3     -0.3   +0.5   +0.8  +0.1
    34    Zaza Pachulia       83    1.3     1.5    19.3     -0.1   +0.3   +0.4  +0.1
    35    Marcin Gortat       83    0.9     3.6    25.5     -0.7   +0.8   +1.5  +0.1
    36    Brendan Haywood     85    0.5     4.1    19.6     -0.1   +0.2   +0.3  +0.1
    37    Brook Lopez         85    1       3.4    11.9     +0.1    0.0   -0.1  +0.1
    38    Brad Miller         83    1.6     1.6    18.3     -0.5   +0.6   +1.1  +0.1
    39    Semih Erden         85    1.3     3.1    17.6     -0.7   +0.7   +1.4   0.0
    40    Kwame Brown         83    0.6     2      22.7      0.0    0.0    0.0   0.0
    41    Nazr Mohammed       82    1       4.9    22.8     -0.9   +0.7   +1.6  -0.1
    42    Channing Frye       83    1.1     2.4    19.2     -0.6   +0.3   +0.9  -0.2
    43    Ed Davis            82    1       4      21.5     -0.8   +0.5   +1.3  -0.2
    44    Amare Stoudemire    82    1.3     4.3    18.6     -1.1   +0.6   +1.7  -0.3
    45    Al Jefferson        82    0.8     4.6    22.2     -1.2   +0.5   +1.7  -0.4
    46    Nenad Krstic        85    0.9     1.3    14.1     -0.5   -0.2   +0.3  -0.4
    47    Robin Lopez         85    0.6     2.9    13.7     -0.7   -0.3   +0.4  -0.5
    48    Jordan Hill         82    0.4     3.1    16.7     -1.7   -0.6   +1.1  -1.2
    
     
    #1 durvasa, Jan 29, 2011
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2011
    1 person likes this.
  2. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Why would height be in a stat? Why not include leaping ability, arm span and BBall IQ then?

    and what is DSPM...what is the "S"
     
  3. pmac

    pmac Contributing Member

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    How did you come up with the formula?
     
  4. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    Height is what I had. If I had measures for the other things that seemed relevant like vertical, wing-span, etc., then I'd have included it as well. It turns out that there isn't a particular strong correlation between height and defensive impact (even when excluding Chuck from the sample). Probably because the shorter centers make up for it by being very good in other areas (e.g. Ben Wallace, Kurt Thomas).

    DSPM: Defensive Statistical +/-.
     
    #4 durvasa, Jan 29, 2011
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2011
  5. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    Its a linear regression, with the output variable being defensive adjusted +/-. You can do it in Excel.
     
  6. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Hey, plot Griffin and Love in your table for this year.

    btw: even if you had all the physical stats, plus a bball-IQ number, isn't the whole point about stats to be able to not include that stuff. for instance, stats should prove the value of bball-iq or physical skills...that they shouldn't have to be included in formulas. I mean, how do you place a llamda on bball-iq. Coach K playing for Bobby Knight at Army was one of the smartest PGs to ever play the game in the NCAA, but so what?
     
    #6 heypartner, Jan 29, 2011
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2011
  7. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    the problem with stats is there's a p[sychological impact that even prevents attempts surrounding some players, dwight is the most noticable, i remember watching bits of a knicks magic game, felton would be taking the ball down on a fast break see the only person in front of him is dwight, and would simply stop and refuse to attack the basket.

    That sort of stuff doesn't show up on the stat sheet.
     
  8. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    I guess it depends on what you're trying to do.

    If I want to measure precisely what happened, then I would only consider stats that reflect things that happened on the floor (points scored, rebounds, etc.).

    On the other hand, if I'm trying to predict or model a player's impact when he's in the game, then I think anything should be fair game including physical measurements.

    I don't know how I'd go about quantifying basketball IQ. I do think that it is something some teams try to do, though.
     
  9. darmor90

    darmor90 Member

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    Yeah, Brad Miller is a better defensive center than chuck hayes. ;)
     
  10. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    That sort of stuff does show up in +/- numbers, which isn't necessarily on the "stat sheet" per se but it is something you can try to analyze and predict.
     
  11. Felece

    Felece Member

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    Brad Miller > Chuck Hayes on D.

    Hmm..
     
  12. dharocks

    dharocks Contributing Member

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    Have you considered taking a player's defensive foul rate into account? It seems like it would be important to include, though I'm not sure how you'd go about doing it.
     
  13. Rockets_4_life

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    You can the majority of those players measurements(wingspan, vertical, etc.) via draft express..

    http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements/
     
  14. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    +/- is the most inherently flawed stat in basketball, because it has the most reasons and most possibilities to be skewed for reasons not related to the player. The issue is all it can ever produce is correlation, and can never establish any form of causality.

    And for that reason, It's probably the most valueless in assessing anyone.
     
  15. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    Well, of course.

    Here is a different ranking where I just took the average of DAPM and DSPM (equal weighting). So this combines what happens when the player is on the floor with their individual statistics. Maybe this result is more to your liking:

    Code:
    [U][B]Rk    Player              Ht    STL%    BLK%   DRB%     DAPM   DSPM   diff  DASPM[/B][/U]
    1     Andrew Bogut        85    1       6.1    26.8     +2.1   +1.6   -0.5  +1.9
    2     Tim Duncan          83    1.3     4.9    26.4     +1.9   +1.4   -0.5  +1.7
    3     Dwight Howard       83    1.8     4.8    30.2     +0.8   +2.2   +1.4  +1.5
    4     Tyson Chandler      85    1       3.4    26.7     +1.7   +1.2   -0.5  +1.5
    5     Marcus Camby        83    1.6     5.3    35.4     -0.2   +2.5   +2.7  +1.2
    6     Omer Asik           85    1.2     4.8    20.6     +1.2   +1.1   -0.1  +1.2
    7     Marc Gasol          85    1.5     4.1    18.8     +0.9   +1.1   +0.2  +1.0
    8     Kurt Thomas         81    1.6     3.3    20.1     +1.2   +0.7   -0.5  +1.0
    9     Jason Smith         85    1.1     2.6    17       +1.4   +0.4   -1.0  +0.9
    10    DeAndre Jordan      83    1.2     5.3    21.5     +0.6   +1.0   +0.4  +0.8
    11    Pau Gasol           85    0.9     3.8    20.4     +1.0   +0.6   -0.4  +0.8
    12    Joakim Noah         83    1.7     3.4    23.2     +0.2   +1.3   +1.1  +0.8
    13    Zydrunas Ilgauskas  87    1.1     4.4    19.4     +0.4   +1.1   +0.7  +0.8
    14    Roy Hibbert         86    0.5     4.7    22.4     +0.8   +0.7   -0.1  +0.8
    15    Greg Monroe         83    2.3     1.5    19.2     +0.1   +1.3   +1.2  +0.7
    16    Andrew Bynum        85    0.2     5.5    21.4     +1.1   +0.3   -0.8  +0.7
    17    Shaquille O'Neal    85    1.2     4.3    19.9     +0.4   +1.0   +0.6  +0.7
    18    Andris Biedrins     83    1.6     2.6    25       +0.1   +1.2   +1.1  +0.7
    19    Samuel Dalembert    83    0.6     6      24.3     +0.4   +0.8   +0.4  +0.6
    20    JaVale McGee        85    1.1     7.2    21.4     -0.2   +1.4   +1.6  +0.6
    21    Anderson Varejao    82    1.4     3      24.8     +0.2   +1.0   +0.8  +0.6
    22    Emeka Okafor        82    0.6     4.5    25.9     +0.7   +0.5   -0.2  +0.6
    23    Nene Hilario        83    1.7     1.9    21       +0.1   +0.9   +0.8  +0.5
    24    Al Horford          82    1.2     2.4    24.3     +0.3   +0.7   +0.4  +0.5
    25    Antonio McDyess     81    1.5     1.9    22.9     +0.3   +0.6   +0.3  +0.5
    26    Anthony Tolliver    80    1.1     2.2    17.3     +1.1   -0.3   -1.4  +0.4
    27    Chuck Hayes         78    1.8     2      19.8     +0.4   +0.3   -0.1  +0.4
    28    Amir Johnson        81    1.4     3.1    18.4     +0.2   +0.4   +0.2  +0.3
    29    Derrick Favors      82    0.8     2.8    18.3     +0.7   -0.1   -0.8  +0.3
    30    Ben Wallace         81    2.5     3.6    23       -1.4   +1.9   +3.3  +0.3
    31    DeMarcus Cousins    83    1.6     2.2    22.9     -0.5   +1.0   +1.5  +0.3
    32    Joel Anthony        81    0.4     5.9    12.4     +0.9   -0.6   -1.5  +0.2
    33    Spencer Hawes       85    0.7     2.9    23.3     -0.3   +0.5   +0.8  +0.1
    34    Zaza Pachulia       83    1.3     1.5    19.3     -0.1   +0.3   +0.4  +0.1
    35    Marcin Gortat       83    0.9     3.6    25.5     -0.7   +0.8   +1.5  +0.1
    36    Brendan Haywood     85    0.5     4.1    19.6     -0.1   +0.2   +0.3  +0.1
    37    Brook Lopez         85    1       3.4    11.9     +0.1    0.0   -0.1  +0.1
    38    Brad Miller         83    1.6     1.6    18.3     -0.5   +0.6   +1.1  +0.1
    39    Semih Erden         85    1.3     3.1    17.6     -0.7   +0.7   +1.4   0.0
    40    Kwame Brown         83    0.6     2      22.7      0.0    0.0    0.0   0.0
    41    Nazr Mohammed       82    1       4.9    22.8     -0.9   +0.7   +1.6  -0.1
    42    Channing Frye       83    1.1     2.4    19.2     -0.6   +0.3   +0.9  -0.2
    43    Ed Davis            82    1       4      21.5     -0.8   +0.5   +1.3  -0.2
    44    Amare Stoudemire    82    1.3     4.3    18.6     -1.1   +0.6   +1.7  -0.3
    45    Al Jefferson        82    0.8     4.6    22.2     -1.2   +0.5   +1.7  -0.4
    46    Nenad Krstic        85    0.9     1.3    14.1     -0.5   -0.2   +0.3  -0.4
    47    Robin Lopez         85    0.6     2.9    13.7     -0.7   -0.3   +0.4  -0.5
    48    Jordan Hill         82    0.4     3.1    16.7     -1.7   -0.6   +1.1  -1.2
    
     
  16. phantoman

    phantoman Contributing Member

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    Great work!

    I like your analysis, it makes sense. Dalembert is supposedly on the block but with this analysis you can see that he is a slightly above average center in Terms of D.
     
  17. jogo

    jogo Member

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    Defense is so hard to measure. This is a good attempt, durvasa. Have you considered adding something like FG% allowed or eFG% allowed? I look at the stat on 82games often but am just not sure how valuable it is.

    Based on the list of centers, if we have no shot at McGee, then our best hope is probably Biedrins, Dalembert, or Mohammed. I think getting a veteran C now to stop the bleeding this year is fine as long as we can draft a young C this year. It's hard to imagine our team being able to get a Nene, McGee, or Marc Gasol.
     
  18. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    I combined DSPM and DAPM and added the results to the end of the first post.

    It passes the Jordan Hill test -- he's dead last.
     
  19. spdngyns69

    spdngyns69 Member

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    Doesn't matter how you cut it...Jordan Hill, is LOL
     
  20. Kwame

    Kwame Contributing Member

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    Exactly, correlation doesn't equal causation. This is what people with a dogmatic view of statistics do not understand, the same people that believe leadership can be quantified... based, for example, on how early somebody shows up to practice.

    Omer Askik? Lol, you have got to be kidding me.
     

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