RAPM--useful or useless?

Tom Bombadillo · Jul 14, 2013

rocketlauch said: ↑

I think the Bev vs. Lin discussion re: who's a better defender has to be stopped...Lin's defensive RAPM and synergy stats are overwhelmingly superior to Beverly, who usually guards lesser talented guards.
Click to expand...

But Lin has Asik in the game to cover up all his mistakes, while Bev has Greg Smith.

2016Champions · Jul 15, 2013

CXbby said: ↑

The reason why Chandler is so low, or rather "average" on the list, is because he is an average player. The fact that he is talked about as a member of the "big 3" or a future all star speaks to how overrated he has become on this board. He is nowhere near that when it comes to his impact on winning. He is the same caliber player as Lin(slightly lesser actually), and people can't wait for the chance to throw $10M a year at him while reminding us everyday how overpaid Lin is.

With that said, most rookies and second year players are net negative on the court. To already be an "average" player at this stage for Chandler is very promising. More importantly, he has shown an upward trajectory year over year, and even more drastic from the first half of last season, when he was close to a -2 RAPM. That however does not mean he is remotely close to a third "star", currently.

The entire purpose of any "adjusted" +/- is to factor in the impact of the other 9 players on the court. This means who Parsons or Asik plays with, or against, has no bearing on their RAPM rating.

For example, Mario Chalmers plays alongside 2 of the best players in the NBA, this is why his raw +/- is +13.2, the best on the Miami Heat. However, this number tells us absolutely nothing about the caliber player of Chalmers, nor his impact on winning. It is useless.

RAPM on the other hand factors in the contributions of Lebron, Wade, along with the 2 other players on the court with Chalmers, as well as his 5 opponents his team is playing against. In the end his rating comes out to be +0.5, a very average role player, which makes a hell of a lot more sense.
Click to expand...

Great post.

AVoiceInACrowd · Jul 15, 2013

2016Champions said: ↑

Advanced statistics are flawed, and people often use them out of context to support an argument which is what has led to the negative stigma advanced statistics now have on sports forums (except baseball forums maybe). Just because Morey uses advanced statistics doesn't mean everyone else can. Morey has access to billions of statistics that the public doesn't have access to, and he employs many great analytical minds who understand those statistics and how to use them, many of those great analytical minds likely create their own statistics. With all that being said, there are certain advanced statistics available to the public, and if used correctly some of them are somewhat useful.

Some of you may already have heard of the statistic RAPM (Regulized Adjusted Plus Minus), it's like the regular +/- you can find in box scores except it tries to adjust for rotations. In other words, it tries to minimize the flaws of regular +/- which it does to a certain extent but not perfectly. It also recommends at least 60 games of data because small sample sizes exaggerate results (so for example don't bother looking at Kevin Love's RAPM, or bench players who don't get much), which is perfectly understandable although it still doesn't make the stat perfect.

John Schuhmann was had an interesting talk with Erik Spoelstra where the usefulness of plus minus was brought up:

I thought ES answered those questions perfectly. If you look at +/- and then go on to look at the different combinations, then +/- can get you to ask more questions and seek answers.

HERE is the RAPM for 2012-2013
As you can see, Asik ranks not far below Harden suggesting what many of us already know--Asik was very, VERY, important to our team last season--almost as important as Harden.

The biggest question I asked myself when I looked further down the list was "Why is Chandler Parsons so low?". Maybe it's because Harden often played SF while Parsons rests so Chandler wasn't missed. A back-court-wing of Beverley-Lin-Harden isn't a huge downgrade from Lin-Harden-Parsons. I'm just guessing though.

So, if we use RAPM in context, is it useful? Or is it useless no matter what? Can I for example use it to support my opinion that Paul Millsap is the most underrated player in the league?

Vote and discuss.
Click to expand...

Interesting and well thought out thread. I would rep you if I could.

Forums

RAPM--useful or useless?

Is RAPM useful or useless?

Useful

Useless

Tom Bombadillo Member

2016Champions Member

AVoiceInACrowd Member

Share This Page

About ClutchFans

Rockets Content

Support ClutchFans!