[RAPM] How do the Rockets compare with other contenders?

These metrics from last year really don't have too much meaning at this stage. I think you have to consider that Lin took a step backwards last year - whether from injury and his body not being right, or confidence. I think those things have been addressed it appears and he should be more productive.

I also think that Harden will average LESS points this year. Not only because of Howard, but because other guys will take on more scoring. Harden isn't going to play the same amount of minutes. If he does, McHale really should be fired. It's clear that Harden was worn out during the playoffs.

Add to that the emphasis on D this year, and that we will likely have fewer possessions as our pace slows - and all of a sudden we're talking a significant shift from last year. I doubt he average more points than last year. It will most likely be less as we have half-court options now.

Finally, I think this team is at least a year away from being a serious contender. I see the contenders as Miami, SA, OKC, Indiana, and maybe Chicago. That's it. I can't see any other team beating one of those teams in a seven game series.

Our hole at PF is really bad. And teams are going to exploit Dmo and whomever we put there. I really think Asik is our best bet, but his non-offense is really an issue. Dmo just doesn't get defense, he might be hopeless. And Jones seems to lack major BB IQ. He's at least a year away from developing his game into something that works in a team framework.

So you have that, and the fact we are so young and inexperienced. Last year our effective age was 24 as a team - and so we'll be 25 now. The youngest team to win a championship in the modern era (last 30 years) was about 27. So by the time we get to the playoffs we'll be maybe 26. No team that young has won a championship since the 1980 Lakers (26.2).

So I say keep the expectations a bit lowered this year. Just have fun watching - next year really is the one that gets interesting.

 

Fair observation. I think we will be relatively fine at the PF spot.
Either one of those sophomores gives us a surprise, Asik does well or we make a trade.

It's still too early for me to judge where we are right now but the idea of reaching HC advantage still stands.

You are probably right
This year is the first year of contending for a ship.

 

great post, refreshing information, thank you.

 

this is like saying financial model is useless, the only true way to test it out is how much money you earn.
or reservoir simulation is useless, the only true way to tell is how much oil your field is pumping out.

THE REALITY IS YOU USE THOSE FREAKING MODELS TO IMPROVE YOUR ODDS OF EARNINGS!

this is such a naive statement, I can't believe we are in the freaking 21st century and we still talking this redneck bull****.

same thing to the statistics and on court win-loss.

 

nope, but I watched a bunch of them.

 

I'll bow out of this debate since it's become an excercise in arguing over semantics and constant mis representation of posts. I'll finish by saying (as I have said all along)

Stats are useful (I refrain from calling them a tool so as not to start another semantics debate) when used with actually watching the game. They can be decieving when you don't really watch the game. That is my one and only point in all of this.

Continue watching the games through box scores and all your stats if thats your thing. You'll get no hate from me. I will continue watching the game via NBA League Pass.

 

I love how you assume other people aren't watching the games while using stats.

 

Compared to other contenders, we are younger on the aging curve and our overall RAPM is likely to be better than last year.

 

Lin and Beverley both look to have improved and found their niche in the offense. I expect RAPM will have big jumps for both to reflect this.

DMo and Jones could have big jumps in RAPM as well if they get PT. I think they could end up to be about an average NBA player (i.e. RAPM has this around -1 for last season's data)

 

Harden was in a mini slump coming into the playoffs because he was recently injured. He needed a little time to get match fit again.