[Random Trade] Unspectacular (But Possibly High Reward) T-Mac Trade

Assuming that (1) the Rockets will be unable to open up enough cap room to sign a top-tier free agent this summer without gutting their core, (2) the Rockets want to keep their core together for the most part, (3) Morey is looking for players with particular skill sets moreso than just "big names", (4) other teams aren't banging down Morey's door offering superstars for T-Mac's contract, and (5) Tracy McGrady is definitely not going to be a Houston Rocket next season (which I still don't think is a given), THEN . . . the following trade might actually make sense for all of the teams involved:

Houston receives: Kirk Hinrich, Jared Jeffries and Knicks' 2012 first round pick (limited protection)
New York receives: Tracy McGrady, Jerome James and Joey Dorsey
Chicago receives: Al Harrington and Cuttino Mobley

WHY NEW YORK DOES THIS DEAL:

The Knicks are DESPERATE to open up enough cap room to offer two max contracts to free agents. They view this as one of the keys to having a legit shot at Lebron James. Without it, Lebron is not likely to want to play with the current Knicks roster. The two biggest impediments to this goal are the contracts of Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries. The Knicks realize that they are going to have to pay a hefty price to any team willing to take on either of those contracts. Hence, the 2012 first rounder with limited protection (possibly top 8 protected in 2012, top 3 protected in 2013, and unprotected in 2014?). Since they have already traded their 2010 pick (the Jazz hold it) and cannot trade first round picks in consecutive years, the 2012 pick is the earliest available pick for them to trade. The Knicks get to dump Jeffries on the Rockets. They lose a good player in Al Harrington, but one who has already been benched in favor of the promising Danilo Gallinari and who was not expected to be re-signed next summer. Cuttino Mobley's contract would be included both to match salaries and for the financial benefits of having insurance picking up most of the tab on it.

In return, New York receives Tracy McGrady, a marquee player who will likely spark a lot of interest nationally. Donnie Walsh would have the luxury of seeing how T-Mac plays over the rest of this (contract) year and can make the decision next summer to either (a) renounce the Knicks' rights to him and open up a ton of cap room or (b) keep him around, hoping to pair him with Lebron or Wade or Bosh (depending on whether they can re-sign Tracy at the right price). The Knicks would have to take on the albatross (but expiring) contract of Jerome James (say hello again to the stiff that Isiah signed to a full MLE deal!) as well as (the disappointing) Joey Dorsey, whose contract is apparently fully unguaranteed for next season.

WHY CHICAGO DOES THIS DEAL:

Much like the Knicks, the Chicago Bulls are ALMOST in a position to make a major splash in free agency. Unlike New York, the Bulls actually offer a nice supporting cast and a star (Derrick Rose) that would be appealing to a guy like Dwyane Wade. But they just don't have quite enough cap room. If they are able to "dump" Kirk Hinrich's contract (which is actually a tough call for the Bulls, since Hinrich is pretty valuable to their team), they'd be in a position to make a legit play for Wade, Lebron or (most likely) Bosh.

In return for dumping some large contracts, the Bulls would receive Al Harrington, an expiring contract who can also add some much-needed frontcourt scoring to the Bulls' lineup. And despite taking on a little more salary in this deal, Chicago might actually come out ahead overall financially, with insurance picking up most of the tab on Mobley's contract (also expiring).

WHY HOUSTON DOES THIS DEAL:

First, what they lose: a highly-paid malcontent (remember, we are assuming that the Rockets have no interest in bringing back McGrady, something with which I do not totally agree) and a disappointing (not-so-) young player in Dorsey who would likely be waived if this trade were made anyway in order to bring the Rockets back down to 15 players. (NOTE: The Rockets would receive a small trade exception for Dorsey, who technically would be dealt in a separate trade with New York.)

Now, what they get: to start off, Les Alexander will save a TON of money with this trade. When you combine the excess salary being dumped on New York versus the salaries coming back, along with the resulting complete avoidance of the luxury tax this year, along with the addition of shared luxury tax revenues that he'd receive, Les should come out ahead by at least $15 million. In today's economy, that's nothing to laugh at.

Okay, now the player side. At first glance, the package of Hinrich, Jeffries and a pick for Tracy McGrady probably strikes most of you as a rather unappealing offering. But take a closer look. Forget their contracts for a moment (again, we're assuming that the Rockets wouldn't have the requisite cap room to bring in a major player, anyway). Just take a look at the types of players they are. Hinrich much, much moreso than Jeffries.

I'll just say it: Kirk Hinrich is the perfect player for this Houston Rockets team. He is a good shooter with 3-point range. He is a very good defender. He is capable of defending multiple positions. He is unselfish. He is tough. He is able to play in a fast-paced style or in a half-court offense. Basically, he is the epitome of what Rick Adelman is looking for in a player.

Hinrich could be plugged in nicely as the starting SG next to Aaron Brooks or as the primary guard off the bench. At 6-3, Kirk is capable of defending shooting guards and even small forwards (some of you may recall the good defense he played on SF Paul Pierce in that epic seven-game series with the Celtics last season). With his ability to play the point on offense, it would free up Brooks to focus more on scoring. Hinrich can also act as a spot-up shooter when Brooks is dominating the ball, penetrating and dishing. Kirk's defense is the key, since (as good a defender as Lowry is) a Brooks-Lowry backcourt is simply too undersized to be effective for more than short spurts.

For all those opposed to the "rumored" trade for Kevin Martin (a 25+ ppg scorer) based on Martin's apparent lack of defense, why should it be so hard for you to like a trade for a MUCH better defender who makes a couple million less than Martin? Sure, Hinrich is overpaid ($9.5M this season), but his salary actually goes DOWN every year. He'll make $9M next season, and "only" $8M in 2011-12. Frankly, for what he can bring to a team, $8M is probably close to his true value. Think Battier and his $7.4M salary slot for next season.

Jared Jeffries, for as bad as his contract is, is a good defensive player and might actually crack Adelman's rotation. At 6-11, he's taller and longer than any of the active Rockets players. He can play and defend multiple positions (small forward, power forward and center). He's not much of a scoring threat, but neither is Chuck Hayes, who gets minutes on this team due to his defensive versatility. Basically, Jeffries is a decent NBA player. It's just that his contract has overshadowed his abilities, much like what happened to Juwan Howard after he signed his $100M+ contract.

The pick would be the real cincher for this deal. Sure, the Knicks probably won't agree to such limited protection on that pick, since Donnie Walsh knows full well that he might not land a superstar this summer to lead his team out of the cellar. But I bet he'd be willing to part with that pick if it had the right amount of protection. In the end, the Rockets could expect something along the lines of a late lottery pick, whenever it came due. Sure, it may not be received until 2014 or beyond, but do you think the Utah Jazz are complaining that they're only now getting a pick that was originally owed back in 2004?

Bottom line: As advertised, this trade would be rather unspectacular to most Rockets fans. Many would respond with outrage, even. But, based on the assumptions above (PLEASE don't attack this post based on different assumptions - I know that this trade might not be as palatable under different assumptions), I think the Rockets would be hard-pressed to do much better for T-Mac than a key starter, a role player capable of cracking the rotation, and a future lottery pick. And remember, the Rockets will be able to use both the MLE and the LLE to pick up quality free agents next season. With the $15M+ that Les saves with this trade, combined with the insurance payments on Yao's contract, he may be willing to go well into luxury tax territory to contend. And with the additions of Yao Ming, Kirk Hinrich and another "Trevor Ariza-caliber" addition with the MLE, the Rockets should be ready to do just that.

 

And then what??? I stated at the outset that this entire trade is based on the assumption that the Rockets wanted to keep the core together rather than to gut the team for the CHANCE at a free agent.

I even said PLEASE in all capital letters at the end regarding people bashing this trade based on different assumptions. You, obviously, are making different assumptions.

(By the way, I'm not saying that your proposal is not valid. I'm just defending the fact that I proposed this trade under certain circumstances that are quite different than those that you are presupposing.)

See my response above.

Fair enough. But I am basing all of this on the assumption that Morey will not be using the cap room. Take another look at the first paragraph of the OP.

True, that is a risk. Hey, 2012 is the earliest Knicks pick available, and the Knicks are the only team desperate enough to trade a potential lottery pick for cap room. Also, I personally think that the Knicks will be left at the altar this summer no matter what. Lebron will stay in Cleveland. Wade will stay in Miami. Bosh MIGHT go to Chicago or Miami, not New York, but most likely will stay in Toronto. Money talks, and their respective current teams can offer a LOT more money.