A real conundrum is that after the Reed over Castle bet, I no longer have a ton of faith in our draft chops. I already thought our player development was poor. So even though I want to get into this draft and reset the yiung core, I’m terrified of this front office making those decisions. And even if we do pull the trigger on a draft prospect, I’m terrified of the coaching staff and player development system undermining that player’s development. Just look at how poorly the “young core” has developed. How can anyone have confidence in Stone and Ime’s ability to draft the right guy and maximize his development? Seriously.
Worth noting is that it was the old Bulls regime that wanted Eason. We have no idea about the new GM (although Tari fits what the new GM has historically valued). btw: it will be a huge indictment of Stone if Tari ends up signing an offer sheet we can’t match and leaves for nothing. That simply can’t be allowed to happen.
Reed was always to look less than castle the first couple years. Castle more pro ready. castle went to a better NBA program too, so who knows if Reed can catch up. I think that the chances of a jump over the next two years for Reed are much higher than for castle. I still like the pick.
Castle doesn’t have a lot of jumping up to do. He is already an excellent ball handler, driver, passer, and defensive player. He shot 30% from 3 during the season and is currently shooting 40% from 3 in the playoffs at low volume. Not sure what skillset Reed is going to surpass him on other than shooting and there is no reason to think Castle won’t improve that part of his game as well as it has progressed over the last part of the year. Stone missed on the pick.
there’s a better chance that Reed is a Payton Pritchard 6th man type than he catches up to Castle. Beyond the defense, the size, facilitation, rim pressure that Castle brings, he also has better handles than Reed. Reed will only go as far as his handles take him, and even then he’ll need to be a generational shooter to make up for the defense. As we head into yr 3 I don’t see how an objective assessment of the two players can lead to any other conclusion than we got that pick wrong. I hope Reed improves. I’m sure Reed improves. I think it’s very uncertain he is a starting caliber player. That is not in question with Castle. I get that people have made excuses for all of Stone’s other underwhelming picks, but at this point, if Reed doesn’t become a great player, Stone should be fired for this miss.
You guys are probably right. I am probably trying to put lipstick on the pig. I think we wanted to cultivate the next level shooting and see if we could merge that and make him a very good point Guard. Still a chance, but y’all aren’t wrong.
I will say Castle has been a lot better than I expected. I worry about Reed not getting his middie up a few more percentage points, and I worry that Reed's handle won't develop enough for him to utilize his 3-point shot more and his middie more. I don't know what Reed will become. I suspect he's at the worst an NBA rotation player even though he had a good 30 game stretch or so of brilliance. That said, if one wants to limit what Reed can do after 2 years, one should not expect Amen to make a big leap after year three. To me, Castle is the better bet going forward. That said, Reed is stil probably in the Top 5 of ceiling going forward from his draft class. That is not a miss. Though I should say, Stone did trade for the pick that the Rockets used on Reed. Trading Harden for a pick-heavy package over keeping him or for a Herro, pu pu platter, and 1st was not a slam dunk move. Also, I can't imagine the amount of whining this board would have if the Rockets had Amen, Castle, and Sengun. That team, while Ime would like Castle and Amen, would not fit. I don't see Pritchard as a bad result for Reed. I don't watch Boston much, but he's definitely a starter-quality guy. He was mostly starting when I saw them this year, and they looked very good with him as a starter. Pritchard improved a lot between his age 22 season and his peak.
The simple answer on the "why put a limit on Reed but not on Amen" question has to do with physical traits. You can't teach size and athleticism. It's not even some special favoritism thing, Amen had the higher ceiling before they were drafted, and that's still true today. Now, his odds of getting all the way there? May be getting lower since he hasn't had that full-blown breakout so far after three years. Reed might have better odds of reaching his ceiling at this point. That said, I agree that something like Pritchard, or any of the other unspectacular-but-solid comps we've thrown on Reed (better-shooting, worse defense FVV?) is fine as an outcome given the low quality of the draft Reed came out of. And that Castle would have been a horrible fit on this team and probably wouldn't have developed as well either.
We have two assets that I don’t think hold a ton of value for us, but might be valuable to other teams: our 2027 picks and KD. So even before we start screwing with the “young core” we’ve got two picks in a bad draft with flattened odds (highly unlikely to yield an all star, let alone a franchise player). And we have an All-NBA player who doesn’t fit our timeline and who hurt team chemistry this season. Turning this assets into a legit core piece should be this front office’s job. Phase 2 is working on fit, but we need better talent on this roster contrary to popular belief. We can start by trading the two assets that won’t really impact the future of this team. If we think those 2027 picks will increase in value then I’m fine holding onto them and moving one of our core prospects because I think they are underwhelming. But KD needs to be moved.
I was referring to improvement. Can't teach size, but Amen already has that advantage. He's using it for a huge lead in defense. Smaller guys typically take longer to develop and typically improve more than bigger guys, though the bigger guys have higher ceilings and floors and don't need as much improvement to stay better than significantly smaller players. Amen is at a better spot than Reed is now and will likely stay that way. I expect Reed will improve more than Amen, though I expect Amen will be the better player going forward. There have been many suggesting Amen could become a number 2 on offense. That is a massive improvement. That improvement will be because Amen improved skills. Reed can improve skills as well. If one is still open to that level of improvement in Amen, one should not judge Reed too harshly yet. I think Reed is in the category of players who still have a huge span of possible outcomes. I suspect it will come down to the ballhandling/middie. He was at 45% in middies this past season on decent volume. He stays around 45%, he's likely just going to be a 3 point shooter. He gets to 50%, he's going to be a problem for the league. Pritchard improved his middie by over 13% mostly by his ballhandling getting a little tighter to make his middies easier shots. Reed may not be a generational shooter, but he's good enough that a small amount of ballhandling improvement will make a much bigger deal for him than it would for Amen.
You know 2 time all-star. No. 3 pick. Maybe they’re stupid, who knows? They have no one to build around. They might could make themselves believe Sengun could be the one. Hell, we have fools around here that think we should build around Reed.
If the Rockets trade KD, the Rockets should tank. This would give the Rockets 3 shots at Stokes and maybe 4, depending on the pick acquired for trading Durant. At the very least, the Rockets should be able to guarantee a team won't tank into the 8% range if they trade KD for a 27 pick. I get the draft in 27 is worse than 26. 2024 was a weak draft too. 2024 may have been even worse as I think Stokes is rated better than anyone in 24. Castle, Reed, Clingan, and Ajay are good players. I think odds are decent the Rockets could come out of 27 with a Castle, Reed, Clingan, or Ajay even if they don't get Stokes. Maybe not a franchise player, but Giannis is likely the only one the 27 picks could be used to acquire at this point.
Given the flattened odds there’s really no one worth “tanking” for in 2027. I don’t think tanking is a good strategy now that the lotto system is being flattened. Sure 3 swings for a top pick in a draft sounds good, but that’s unlikely to yield a 24% chance at the top pick. Probably the best you could hope for would be a 21% chance. In a draft where there’s no franchise talent I just don’t think that’s much of an asset. I think we should get rid of those picks and dip into this draft. Unfortunately I think other teams will try to do the same thing, and that include okc, which has the ammo to easily get up to #5 and probably even higher.
Flattened odds hurt the worst teams. It helps the lower middle teams (think 4-14) and the teams with other teams' draft picks. I'd say trading KD and tanking would likely give the Rockets a 16-21% at Stokes. 24% would be within the realm of hope. With trading KD, that could go up even higher, though I expect it would be in the ~2.7% chance range. Even missing, Rockes could still get 1-2 players in the Castle, Reed, Clingan range. Trading KD is a must, and trading the 27 picks because they have little value are too very contradictory paths to me. KD is not going to get a pick that has better odds than the Rockets could get through tanking. If it isn't worth tanking to improve draft odds in 2027, it isn't worth trading KD as he'll improve draft odds less and likely yield a worse prospect. I'm fine with keeping a toe in 2026 value to see if guys rebound/are healthy. It wouldn't be my choice, but I see going all out tank* as a reasonable path. The trade KD path, but let's not try everything to rebuild the path, is the worst of both worlds to me. I'm fine trying to trade into the 2026 draft. I just expect it would require a guy the Rockets like falling, and then snagging in the middle of 1st round. If the Rockets want a premium pick, I just don't see a good option besides trading Amen as other options probably take too many picks. Rockets would go full tank with this option. Trade KD. Trade Sengun. Maybe trade Reed as I think Reed potentially has some value, but probably not enough to spoil tanking. *all out tank would be doing stuff to finish in the 8% range.
I’ll have to look into stokes. I’ve heard the name, but don’t know much about him. If he’s not a franchise guy I don’t think a 16-20% chance is much to hope for. If he is a franchise guy, sign me up!
The Rockets aren't going to trade to get a franchise guy in 2026 draft unless someone develops better than expected. Granted, a player that good could just as easily be available with pick in 2027 except there is still a chance on getting Stokes. My understanding is that Stokes would not go 1 or 2 this year, but probably in the 4-5 range.
Capela/DFS and 3 firsts(1 pick guaranteed in 6-10 range) for #5(Acuff). Sengun to Mil for Turner/Green/2 FRP Turner/Adams Smith/Eason Thompson Reed/Green FVV/Acuff
Rockets receive: Tyrese Maxey Sixers receive: Fred VanVleet Jabari Smith 2028 Rockets 1st 2030 Rockets 1st or swap Rockets receive: Nick Richards Bulls receive: Clint Capela 2031 Rockets second-round pick Rockets then draft Alex Karaban/Baba Miller (Karaban is a much more consistent shooter but Miller's freakish upside is so alluring) and Jack Kayil in the second round. Sign Jevon Carter, Cam Thomas and Kevin Love to replace the vet min guys Holiday, Tate and Green. Maxey / Kayil / Carter Amen / Reed / Thomas KD / Tari / DFS Sengun / Karaban Adams / Richards / Love
