Well, we basically have until the middle of this upcoming offseason to make some big calls. I feel like the Alpi and Jalen extensions were fairly safe calls--Alpi coming in under his market value (which should probably be the max) and Jalen coming in maybe slightly over but on a shorter, less-risky contract. Giving Jabari/Tari extensions is going to be a much more murky decision unless those two are willing to accept well under market value. There's the potential to end up seriously overpaying one (or even both) of them to the point where he's difficult to trade and his contract locks up our flexibility. Look at Denver's situation, for example--they fell from top contender to fringe contender because their big extensions for a group of high-end, non-star starters has damaged their flexibility and depth. And they probably have it a lot easier than we will because Jokic vastly, vastly outperforms his max contract, whereas we're more likely to have two or three more "normal" stars in terms of value-over-contract. I do agree that we don't need to be in a hurry to trade one of these guys at this season's trade deadline. We can punt this decision to the offseason and see how things play out. But I do think that if you're not going to extend Jabari or Tari you have to at least start thinking about whether a trade is better roster management to maximize value and retain flexibility moving forward. The other way to punt it is, as you mentioned, RFA, but that just gives you until next season's trade deadline to make the decision on whether trading one of them is the right call.
A year ago today when JG was shooting 40% / 31% from the field and three I'd have been pounding the table to go get White. (And in fact I was pushing for us to try to get him.) Today, with JG shooting 43% / 36% instead, I'm a little bit more hesitant. I think White would take multiple first-round picks and after next season he is due for a big payday. I think you'd want to be confident he has another level on both ends. White/Green/Thompson/Sengun is a hell of a core, but expensive to keep all four together once Coby and Amen get paid. I wonder if we need a max or near-max point guard, or if we can get away with more of a serviceable starter as we continue to develop Amen's on-ball game and hopefully Reed starts giving us something. This is where I'm at I think in terms of the price: One FRP: Go get him, you can always move him for an equivalent return at next year's trade deadline if you need to. Two FRPs: Hmm, maybe. Depends on which picks, protections, and so on. Three FRPs: Hell nah.
All valid points, but in addition to timeline, if a winning team wants a top 10 pick, there needs to be risk involved. As electric as he has been, Cam gets the least minutes of the core 6, which may make him the most expendable. Also, who says Cam is happy getting the least minutes of the core 6. Cam probably doesn't want to be coming off the bench and being the highest scoring bench player in the league per minute for the 2nd year in a row. Eventually, he is going to expect to start. I'm fine keeping Cam and letting the team develop, I'm not anti-Cam. I'm just indulging the idea of getting a top 10 pick and what it may cost. I also believe trading any of the core 6 is unlikely this season.
There is absolutely no reason to believe Jabari or Tari will be demanding / getting overpaid extensions. They have all the markers of guys who get underpaid. - Low counting stats, low usage players with minimal offensive creation - Very little internal leverage - they know they individually aren't the great hope of the Houston Rockets - Not hyped in the media - Not considered star upside players - Both with significant injuries in their 3rd year leading up to the extension You can compare them to Sengun and Jalen, who each had "star" hype, big counting stats, and leverage as the first guys we drafted. And even they got less than most expected. I would be shocked if Jabari + Tari end up with anything more than $50M AAV combined. That's about ~24% of the cap over the life of their contracts, put together. That'd be ~60-65% of the cap for Sengun, Jalen, Jabari, Tari. I.e., no financial crunch whatsoever.
I hope you're right, but look at the contract Jaden McDaniels got the offseason before last, look at the contract OG Anunoby got this past offseason, Tall, two-way 3-and-D roleplayers are highly, highly valued around the league. I can see Jabari in particular asking for a deal that at least comes close to what Jalen and Alpi got. Tari's injury history may be the one thing that holds him back from getting a big deal, but I guarantee teams would be lining up to pay him if not for that. I definitely think it's possible their combined AAV ends up under $50M, but I wouldn't say I'd be shocked if it exceeded that figure. I would put that right around the median personally, with the high end potentially going up to $65M AAV or so for both, which if that's what you end up thinking is their ask--it at least makes you start thinking carefully about things. I'm not saying I think we should trade one of them, I think it depends on various factors and I wouldn't close the door on it as an option just yet.
This is still the move for me when it’s all said and done. It’s an upgrade to our weakest position and he fits our timeline.
While I don't think they'll sign for much more than $50 AAV, I wouldn't really count on then signing much lower than that, either. My guess is Bari signs something similar to Suggs and Johnson - 5 year, 150 mil, or 4 years / 112 like Trey Murphy. Either way, that's around $30M AAV right there. Eason is much more complicated. I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't extend this offseason to try and up his value ahead of RFA.
Fox has been awful lately. The last five games, he's averaged 15 ppg shooting 38% from the field. The last 20 games, Green has averaged 24 ppg on a .59 TS% as compared to Fox's 23 ppg on a .53 TS%. Not saying I'm totally out on Fox, but Jalen's recent performances and Fox cooling off has really tempered what I would trade for Fox.
I've been saying this for the past 2 years to the "we can't pay them all" crowd. Either one or neither of Jabari and Tari will get an extension over the summer and I'm fine with that. If both guys prove to be keepers, DB will be traded. Cam doesn't have much say in his situation other than to become a better player. Amen will always be ahead of him and Jalen will be a starter as long as he's a Rocket. Cam needs to go to another level next season and earn 20-25 mins off the bench each and every game. The way Cam fans pump him up, that shouldn't be a problem. Rockets don't have to think about paying him until 2026 or 2027. Remember this: The NBA salary cap has an 11-year run of max increases coming up. DB's "terrible" contract is now VERY tradeable. (So is Jalen's). Bottom line: Rockets aren't in an OKC situation where "paying them all" is a legit thing to worry about. At least two of the youngsters will not measure up to the others and will be gone by no later than next year.
What if Amen replaces FVV next year and he, Jalen and Alpi take turns initiating the offense? When Jabari went out, Amen replaced him and it turns out he's better on both offense and defense than Jabari. I said earlier in the season if FVV was out for a while, it would be rough at first but Amen and other Rockets would eventually figure it out and probably end up better.
See this is where I think people are pretty off. Suggs, Johnson, and Murphy are not comps for Jabari IMO. They were all significantly better than Jabari on the court before their extension, and had all basically proved they were advantage starters in the league on competitive teams. Not to mention having more leverage than Jabari to their respective teams. Their numbers pre-extension: Johnson: 16/9/4 on 51/36/73, -0.4 EPM, good defender Suggs: 13/3/3 on 47/40/76, +2.0 EPM, 2nd team NBA All Defense, 10th in DPOY voting Murphy: (2nd year) 15/4/2 on 48/41/91 +2.1 EPM, (3rd year) 15/5/2 on 44/38/82 +0.5 EPM, good defender Jabari: 12/6/1 on 43/35/87, -0.9 EPM, good defender IMO Jabari has no argument to be in that group, he's clearly well below. Tari is less predictable, but you have to imagine he locks in the generational wealth at the first opportunity he can get it, given the uncertain nature of his health going forward -- somebody "letting it ride" in his situation would be very surprising to me. I don't see him turning down ~$18-20M AAV/$80-100M total, when further issues with his leg in year 4 could mean that big second contract never comes at all. He's only making $3M/yr right now.
Jabari is coming off a previous 14/8/1 season on 45/36 shooting though, and I think him, his agent, and the Rockets all believe that is his current talent level--I suspect most front offices would believe that too. That's not so far off of Johnson, who is a lesser defender than Jabari and has less upside, being much older at the time of his extension, and having lesser physical tools. And I think the upside thing is something that's important not to miss. He's very, very young for a guy about to be extension eligible, and was in the conversation to go #1 in his draft class. Lots of teams would be salivating at the chance to pry a guy like that away who, if not an above-average starter yet, has at least proven himself capable of being a positive contributor as a starter on a contender.
I think the only one that's not comparable is Johnson, and that's because he's more of an #2 offensive option. I also wouldn't say Johnson is a "good" defender. He had a 116 defensive rating last season. Conversely, Bari is putting up a 106 defensive rating this season, much better than what Johnson and Trey are putting up this season. Bari's net rating of +5.2 is also much better than what the other three are putting up this season (Johnson +1.2, Suggs +1, Murphy -8.8). I guarantee Bari's agent will use them as comps.
Again, you're doing the thing the other poster described - you're describing Jabari in this "Rockets fan" or "Jabari's agent" tilted way that is not reflective of what he's shown in the numbers, or via eye test. Sure, if we steelman the bull case for all our players' track records or future outcomes, we'll have financial problems. Everyone would. Fortunately that's now contract negotiations work. See, Sengun and Jalen. Nobody in the league thinks Jabari is a "high upside" guy and Jalen Johnson is a "low upside" guy. It's exactly the opposite. Jalen Johnson has been the high upside swing prospect since he was drafted. There is a 5 month draft age difference between them and Jalen Johnson actually has athleticism and ball skill, and has been a better defender according to all the advanced stats: DEPM, RAPM, on/offs. Case in point, Jalen Johnson has become an All Star level player immediately after that extension. I'd take the under on 0.5 career Jabari Smith Jr. All-Star seasons at -500. Jalen Johnson average 18/9/5 on 48/35/72 as a second offensive option with good defense over the last 4 months of the season before his extension. Absolutely nobody who watches Jabari thinks that's something he's capable of. And I like Jabari. He's just not that kind of player. I'm not going to go through them all here, but I don't think people are internalizing that the summation of advanced metrics say Jalen Johnson, Jalen Suggs, and Trey Murphy were good, and Jabari is not yet good. He's not gonna get paid like them.
Looking at our future cap situation, we should be fine for the next couple of season. The real issues may crop up in 2027 - 2028. There's a pretty decent chance the following will happen: Green will opt out and sign a 25% extension. Amen will sign a 25% rookie extension. Sengun's contract will take up about 20% of the cap. If Bari's making 30M, that's about 16% of the cap. In total, that's 86% of the cap. The Rockets will likely have to make some hard choices.
I've got a great idea! How about we trade none of our players and instead of hoping we can get our hands on a guy from another team like: Jabari Smith Jr - 22 Tari Eason - 23 Can Whitmore - 20 Jalen Green - 22 Reed Sheppard - 20 Amen Thompson - 21 We can just be like, damn! We're getting to kick everyone's @ss with - Jabari Smith Jr - 22 Tari Eason - 23 Can Whitmore - 20 Jalen Green - 22 Reed Sheppard - 20 Amen Thompson - 21
