Again, I just think you and I view the future of the league differently. I could be completely wrong, but this is how I think the cap sheet of most non-tanking teams will look: (1) four or so "big" contracts; (2) exceptions/rookies; (3) minimum guys. Teams will overpay for high-end, non-stars that complement their core. Conversely, above-average guys who used to sign decent contracts will be signing minimums or exceptions at a far higher rate, or they'll sign nice contracts with tanking teams who need to hit the salary floor.
The Knicks won't have many drafted rookies or exceptions besides for the taxpayer MLE and late FRPs. Those that they do have/use will limit them to basically what they have once Bridges signs. This is a weird vision to me as it seems like every team other than the Knicks and teams with older stars seem to just be adjusting to the 2nd apron differently than your vision. Rockets, OKC, and Orlando all look to be teams with guys on rookie extensions or middle class FA contracts. Heck, Minnesota just decided to go the opposite direction. The Celtics will likely still have 4 White, Holiday, Hauser, and Pritchard that don't fit your vision in 3-4 years as they will be guys making less than about 20% of the cap. Suns...they will be toast. I think Denver is going to have to sign guys to Bird rights to keep going that don't fit your big contracts/exceptions/rookies/minimum route. Who are these teams that look to fit your criteria besides the Knicks?
Obviously teams will continue to extend rookies. Teams like the Rockets and OKC who are developing their "core" will continue to sign good players to deals that correspond with the timeframes of their rookies. I expect the Rockets will try to keep four or so of the current guys, or will trade for a star and keep the guys who best complement that star. That should not be difficult with how they structured FVV's contract. OKC is obviously building around Shai/Williams/Chet and is signing contracts with their extensions in mind, hence why Hartenstein's contract has a third year club option. Perhaps "non-tanking" teams was incorrect phrasing. I'm primarily discussing teams who are locked into a core. OKC will get there, as will the Rockets. You're right -- those types of teams will continue to sign good players who will help develop a developing team's core. The Nuggets let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope walk for exactly the reasons I'm discussing. Same with the Celtics and Grant Williams. True contending teams with several large contracts will have to let guys like KCP and Williams walk far more often in order to keep their core 4 or so guys together.
...and KCP and Grant Williams were both acquired by non-tanking teams (initally) instead of signed for minimum deals. Yes, teams that don't manage their salaries are going to have to let good players go. Teams that manage their salaries well are going to scoop them up.
They are $3.57m under the 2nd apron currently .... after Charlotte facilitated the deal. Their top 6 guys account for $166,565,915. That's 88.1% of the 2nd apron and 89.8% of their current salary obligations. In 25/26 they will have 9 dudes under contract and be just $9.6m short of the 2nd apron with 6 roster spots to fill and a veterans minimum cap hit of about $2.3m. With Precious Achiuwa, Cameron Payne, Landry Shamet & Jericho Sims all becoming FA. They won't have much depth IF they can fill out that roster without moving someone. in 26/27 this is when things get really difficult with both Bridges and Mitchell Robinson heading to FA - you know they are gonna cost more than their current contracts and they are already up against the 2nd apron. Add to that the increases in all the other salaries - KAT is jumps from $49.2 to $57.1m in 26. I think it's gonna be increasingly difficult for them to keep those 6 dudes beyond 2 years. KAT, OG, Hart and Brunson I think they can keep for the duration of KAT's contract (thru 27/28) but Bridges and Robinson seems near impossible.
No extensions for either Jalen or Sengun make them prime candidates for S&T deals if a star level player becomes available. Correct me if Im wrong, but if either Jalen or Sengun or both for that matter would have signed max extensions then you couldnt trade them for a year? If so it makes Stones angle even more clear.
Houston Rockets Trade Breakdown Change in Team Outlook: 0.0 ppg, 0.0 rpg, and 0.0 apg. Incoming Players Jerami Grant 30 year old, 6-7, 210 lb F from Syracuse No games yet played in 2024-2025 Shaedon Sharpe 21 year old, 6-5, 205 lb F from Kentucky No games yet played in 2024-2025 Outgoing Players Dillon Brooks 28 year old, 6-6, 225 lb F from Oregon No games yet played in 2024-2025 Jalen Green 22 year old, 6-4, 186 lb SG from NBA G League Ignite No games yet played in 2024-2025
This makes no sense at all. Zero need for Grant with Amen and Tari on the team. Shaedon Sharp doesn't have the motivational drive to be a consistently good NBA player. However, for random, out-of-the-blue 10-15 min stretches, he can give MJ and LeBron a run for their money.
What if Durant only plays half the games this season. Beal is injured like always and the rockets get a little luck. Reed Sheppard Devin Booker Amen Thompson Jabari Smith Jr Cooper Flagg Tari Eason Cam Whitmore Trade picks & Green/Sengun for Booker
After watching Utah's big guys eat our lunch and watching not so nimble Steven Adams (nice screen setter tho!)... Tate + 2026 SRP to POR for Time Lord. Blazers cut salary and have Ayton + Clingan at C. Rox get vet big man who has played for Ime & (hopefully) can block shots + start fast breaks for Rox.
