LOL That was funny. I see what you're saying, but that's not my argument. I'm stating that when the Rockets are fully healthy, you're not going to see much of a Rafer AND Luther backcourt anymore. Defensive rotations haven't been the cause of Rafer's high volume of treys compared to Head, as much as the role of simple playing time. Here's my evidence: The last four games, T-Mac has been hurt, Head has been getting as much playing time as Rafer. Last 4 games (no T-mac), from 3pt land Rafer: 9/28 for 31.1% (7 3's attempted per game) Head: 11/27 for 40.7% (6.75 3's attempted per game) So my point is that before the injuries, Luther was playing more and more while Rafer was playing less (link ). And now that Battier has returned to form...there's going to be an evening out of minutes between Rafer and Head when the team is at full health...and that is a good thing.
The less Rafer the better. He kills us because other teams leave him open because he is the weakest perimeter link on offense. Most of his 3s are so uncontested he could yawn before shooting them. Inside the arc, he misses so many teardrops, runners, layups and mid-range jumpers it isn't funny. Other teams part the Red Sea for him and he cannot finish unless it's a completely uncontested layup. Believe it or not, I still think of him as a "pass first" PG but he is left so wide open it begs him to take the shot because the other team is defending against just 4 players. The only reason we debate about whether Rafer is bad is our record, which is 15-8 in spite of him.
I disagree and I think you have a misconception here. Uncontested mid-range jumpers are as good as any other shots, due to the fact that shooters are shooting at closer than 3-point range and hence higher percentage. Every fundamentally sound basketball player, regardless which position he plays, should be able to shoot uncontested mid-range jumpers at high efficiency. Yao Ming and Steve Nash are two prime examples. Even legendary players such as Jordan and Bird didn't consider mid-range jumpers as bad shots, and many of their shots were highly contested. In addition to higher accuracy, missed mid-range jumpers lead to shorter and relatively easier offensive rebounds, compared to 3-pointers. I am not sure how the above lends any credence to your claim that mid-range jumper are bad shots. If anything, it only reinforces the importance of 2-pt J, as JVG only allows at most 1 such shot from opponents (per possession, I assume), and it has to be contested.
The idea was that (ideally) the Rockets should chase them off the three point line, deny shots in the paint, and only give up contested 2 point jumpers. And then don't allow offensive boards. That's what JVG wants our half court defense to do. Team's typically shoot in the low 40s% on those midrange jumpers, I believe. The more you can force teams into taking those shots while also contesting them, the more efficient your defense.
According to 82games.com (the most extensive, in-depth statistical analysis of NBA players), Rafer is: - Always on the floor when the Rockets have their top five-man units (when the Rockets put forth their best 5 lineups, he's always on the floor) - Among Rockets regular rotation players, he's 5th in efficiency (+1.0) ahead of the likes of Head, Hayes, Howard and Spanoulis. - has a better eFG% than PG opponents (.490 to .462) - is 3rd on the team in individual win percentage (65.2%); +6.8 net rating per 48 minutes - the team averages 106 points per 100 possessions, giving up only 99 when he's on the floor - the team shoots better when he's on the floor (50% compared to 47%) - The Rockets are a much better rebounding team when's he on the floor. http://www.82games.com/0607/06HOU2D.HTM There's the link of a look at Rafer--more telling stats, for sure.
Those are interesting, but some are more circumstantial. Rockets rebound better when Rafer is on the floor because he plays a lot of minute with Yao and Chuck on the floor (instead of, say, Yao & Juwan or Chuck & Juwan).
Sure, uncontested midrange Js need to be taken, but as I said, it's less efficient than the short shots near the basket and open 3s. They need to be taken to set up those other higher % shots, but if you get an open 3 or a chance to go deep into the paint, you should prefer those to the 2pt Js if you are talking about how NBA players do overall on these shots. Take Kobe Bryan for example, a GREAT player and very good shooter from midrange. His eFG is .621 on layups and dunks (TS% is probably higher since you tend to get fouled more on those), .581 on his 3 pt attempts, and only .465 on his 2 pt Js (TS% may be a bit higher since he does get some fouls on those, just not as frequently as on the layups/dunk attempts). Kobe can kill you with his midrange J, too, but you prefer him taking those than any other shot. The same kind of numbers goes with a predominant majority of NBA players.
Rafer's assists..come from passing to Yao and Yao taking a shot. maybe a fast break..for an open jumper or layup or dunk. maybe an occasional drive and dish. Assist to Tmac or another shooter. Rafer only brings the ball up the court...and he initiates the offense. Tmac is creating.. Yao is finishing. Rafer does need to improve, but I don't think we're going to get rid of him. We have two of the best players in the NBA, two efficient, extremely productive forwards..
Chris Duhon would be an ideal court general... becoming a solid 3 ball shooter...solid assist...would be a great pickup.
My ultimate fantasy is getting Ben Gordon from the Bulls. He would drill those runners and wide open jumpers while Tracy played the point position. As a floor general type, Duhon would be OK.
One thing I noticed is that the so-called "savior" Mike James isn't doing that hot in Minnie. In fact, if you look at the stats, Rafer is comparable in every category except in 2point shooting. Rafer definitely needs to improve on that, but I think people the 'Rafer hate' is getting out of hand. Put this into perspective, we have a better starting PG than 13 other teams. Is this a weakness? Yes. Is this something that is a fatal flaw? I don't believe so. As long as Rafer's not jacking up 15 shots a game like he's been forced to in the absence of Tmac, we'll be fine.
Sorry, Van Gundier, but what you said of Head's 3 point shooting simply doesn't jive with the facts. He's had 3 bad games from downtown. Three all season. 1-5, 1-5, and 1-4. Look it up here at Clutch's excellent stat resource. Every other game he's shot at least 40%. Every other game. Just thought I'd point that out. Head, thank god, is nothing like Rafer from behind the arc. Yes, we all know that, but you implied that he was consistantly inconsistant. He's not. Head rarely has an off night shooting treys.
True... good catch. Luther Head really has had very few off nights and I'd bet that's pretty rare. Rashard Lewis, for example, has had 6 nights of 25% or below shooting. Mike Miller has had 7 of these nights. Rafer Alston has had 6 such nights (along with 3 nights of 29% shooting). Gilbert Arenas has had 7 of such nights.
FT shooting, too. Rafer is leaving 0.7 points more on the line in similar attempts. May not sound like a lot, but add that with being just a little better 3pt shooter and a much better 2pt shooter and you have a much more efficient scorer even in a down year for James. Alston greatest ability is playmaking. As long as TMac was the top playmaker, James would have been a good person to match with him in the backcourt. I don't want to make this sound like "hate" since I would like to have Alston as a backup PG. He's played much better than I expected.
Well I would love Gordon as well...but I was kinda thinking Duhon as more feasible (they already have Kirk). He plays solid D and would be a huge upgrade over Alston without gutting the team.
Gordon wants to start and play PG. When Duhon gets starter minutes his shot isn't so hot. Duhon's has a nice contract and fits in well with the Bulls. It would be hard to think of a reason why they'd want to trade him. If Gordon gets traded it won't be to the Rockets. It's time to get on the Travis Diener bandwagon.
106-99 is not bad... Mike James was <a href="http://www.82games.com/04HOU4D.HTM">114-99</a> when he was on the floor with the Rockets. Please explain how these are "more telling stats" in a thread that is comparing Rafer to other NBA starting point guards. What you're showing us is how the team compares to itself when Rafer is on the floor and when he isn't. While these are certainly interesting stats, they're extremely misleading in Rafer's case in that (as SamFisher pointed out) Rafer gets credit for playing most of his minutes with two superstars and two of the most efficient forwards in the game. I didn't exactly see Rafer Alston <a href="http://www.82games.com/0506/05HOU2D.HTM">impacting the offense or defense</a> in any significant way last year. But again, these numbers have nothing to do with how Rafer compares to other PGs in the league and my point is not that there is a better heavy-minute option on the current roster. Rather, the point is the Rockets can do much better than Rafer Alston and they need to find a guard who fits our needs around Yao and T-Mac better and can take substantial minutes from him. I like how we play a lot of the time, especially defensively, and I'm encouraged that Bonzi is getting better and could take shots away from Rafer... but I don't understand where the "all is well" group is coming from. We already knew T-Mac, Yao, Battier and two random guys out of Huntsville State prison would win some games. Right now the Rockets are not an elite team. They are not even a top 4 team in the West. Just because we are a good team and a potential playoff team doesn't mean we shouldn't be trying to improve this team and specifically that position (for all I know, we are) ... especially in light of the potentially great move the Nuggets made. Playoff stretches where both Yao and T-Mac are completely healthy may be hard to come by ... we may not have many shots at this at all. I personally do not want those hopes resting on the shooting trigger of Rafer Alston.
