Rafer's what 40.3% from 2 and 36.4% from 3 now? That's somewhat better than before. About five or six games ago, Rafer was like 32% from layups/floaters and 39% from 3's. Now Rafer is 40.5% on layups and floaters. It think it's called regressing to the mean or something. He's playing as expected and it was too much to ask for Rafer to continue his 39% 3pt shooting while improving his inside % and cutting down on his turnovers (which he has except for that horrible Lakers game). I've done the research on this already, and anyone can search my thread starting history for the mountains of evidence and stats and analysis I've used to come up with my conclusions. And it is that based on their own past and from the success of other teams, it is clear that the Rockets need to shoot a high% from 3point land to be a contender. I think I put the target % at 38.5 or something like that. Now that Battier is out of his shooting slump, and Luther has shown no signs of slowing down, it is clear to me that they need to be the #1 and #2 3pt options. When everyone is healthy, Rafer's minutes are going to go down. His clutchness is slowly going to deteriorate the same way his overall 3pt shooting has been going, in my opinion. Rafer at 36% 3pt shooting is okay at about 3 attempts per game, not 7. The same goes for T-Mac, who's even more of a 3pt culprit than Rafer is. T-Mac doesn't get much blame from us fans because he's so great at many things the Rockets need. That is true. But T-Mac has been just as culpable as Rafer has in terms of forcing numerous bad shots, especially from behind the line. Slowly T-Mac's 3pt % is going up, as it needs to if he's going to continue to shooting from back there. Remember, T-Mac was literally like the 2nd or 3rd worse 3pt shooter in the entire League last year. Seriously, I think he was 93rd place out of 94 qualified shooters if I remember correctly. I still want Tyrone Lue on this team. I know I'm the only one. But Lue's career 3pt % is great, and has been in a little slump lately due to being forced to score more while Joe Johnson was out, but his overall 3pt % over the last couple of years is like 42%. And his hotzones have been great for jumpshooting all over the floor last year.
I agree on #3. Most of those shots are wide open, in large part thanks to Yao attracting double teams. I'd kick Rafer's ass if he passes up on them. I hate seeing Padgett do that when he's open. The problem though is he fails to hit them with high proficiency. As to #4, this is more than Rafer's problem. I have a hunch that the Rockets probably rank near bottom in the entire league, if not at the rock bottom, in terms of mid-range jumpers attempted and made. You know what, this has everything to do with coaching strategy. Yeah, that's another reason to fire Gundy.
So basically, Alston is in the bottom fifth of PGs in the league. It's pretty much stating the obvious, at least AFAIC. I know others aren't necessarily as annoyed by Alston as I am.
I agree that it is not bad shot selection on Rafer's part, the majority of his 6.8 3pt attempts. But the 36.4% is too low. Look at the Rockets success from 2 years ago. Look at the Spurs, Suns, and Mavs success. It's generally bad basketball to have one of your poorer 3pt shooters shooting the highest volume. This is not Rafer's fault as much as it is a result of the system, Van Gundy's trust in Rafer's ball handling, and injuries. Before all the injuries, Luther Head was gradually playing most of the 4th quarter minutes instead of Rafer, with T-Mac being the point guard. And with Bonzi playing solid minutes now, that will only eat into Rafer's time even more. This is all a good thing. Rafer does have a place on this team, and that place is splitting time with Luther Head, in my opinion. Rafer's success ratio is acceptable as part of a championship contending team at 3 or 4 trey attempts per game, and 25 to 30 minutes max per game.
I don't have a problem when Rafer shoots wide open 3 pointers. His % is OK, not great. What drives many of us crazy is he is streaky from long range. When he misses, he misses 5 or 6 in a row. Then in the next game, or later in the same game, Rafer will drill 3/4 bombs. Kim, you will continue to be the only one wanting Tyronne Lue back. The memories of how much we improved after trading him for Jon Barry just won't go away, for good reason. But don't worry, as long as the catastrophe known as Speedy Claxton continues to be one of the biggest busts of the year, the Hawks will hang on to Lue. Rafer is #1 on my most likely Rocket to be traded list. JVG and the Rockets brass see the same things we do. But while he's on the team, Rafer will continue to be our starter.
Actually, 36.4 for a mix of open and contested 3s isn't too low. It translates to an eFG (or TS%, without counting FTs) of 54.6%. League wide TS% on all shots is about 53.9%. So, that 3 pointer is an above average shot as far as expected return is concerned (you have the long rebound problem, but you also tend not to turn the ball over just firing that 3 as opposed to going into congested areas). Not as good as Yao going into the paint drawing fouls, but not a bad shot. Also Rockets team 3pt% is 36.4%, so Rafer is not hurting the average overall (TMac, on the other hand, has struggled). League-wide 3pt % is about 34.7%, so Rafer is a tiny bit above average in that department.
Which shooter is NOT streaky from the 3 point line? Is Rafer more so than any other 36-40% shooter from the arc? Everyone's % fluctuates greatly from game to game. Even Luther Head, shooting an excellent % on those has very good and very bad days.
Actually, midrange jumper is a bad shot. You only get 2 points out of them, you don't often get fouls shooting them, and a predominant majority of players don't shoot any more than 45% (overall, combining contested and uncontested) on those. The expected return on these things, as measured by TS%, is not good, unless we are talking about guys who are really among the top guys in the league. So, unless you are really really good at them, a player should limit his midrange J attempts to the minimum neccesary (i.e. either when you can't find a better shot before the 24 second clock expires, only shoot when you are very open, or shooting it when you are relatively open so the defender can't stay back far enough to prevent your drives to the basket). We mentioned this a few times... during the preseason there was a photo on a banner hanging above the Rockets practice court that says, in part "one contested 2 pt J." That's how the team wants to play defense-- giving the opponent one contested 2 pt J-- because that's the lowest % shot out there.
Rafer's stats dont reflect the "timing" issues with shots and turnovers he commits. His stats look far more impressive than what the reality is. I will say it one more time Rafer is at best a good Back Up point guard.
what's his salary like compared to other guards. there are quite a few point guards still under their rookie contracts.
Kim, I like your take. Unlike many people here, I don't think Rafer is trash. I think he is an okay to below average PG. Most of his 3pt shots are within the offense. If you are wide open, you have to shoot. And I don't know if this is a factor. Would the opposing defense more likely to leave the worse shooter open, and thereby giving him the most shot attempts? He does jack up some ill-adviced quick 3pt shots from time to time. But those are exceptions. And the low assist number might not be totally fair to him either. The entry pass is often started by the PG at the top to the swingman on the side to create the angle. So a lot of assists for Yao's scoring are given to the swingmen rather than the PG. It is the design of the offense in response to how the defense denies the entry pass. Anyway, Rafer as a below average shooter is an undeniable fact. The way Head is playing, I think eventually, JVG will give more and more PG minutes to Head when T-Mac and Snyder are healthy, especially now that Bonzi is playing too. After the season opener, T-Mac has mostly been used as SG, rather than SF. JVG realized that Battier playing too much PF isn't good. So with Bonzi and Snyder active, the SG spot is crowded. And Head is proving more and more useful in making double teaming Yao pay. So, I expect Head to eat into Alston's minutes when everybody is healthy.
To an extent, all 3 point shooters are streaky. What Rafer seems to do a lot is miss 4, 5 or 6 in a row during the same game. This is why so many people are down on him shooting 3s even though his % isn't that bad. A couple of times he's redeemed himself late in games by hitting big ones. I guess you didn't see the thread about how Alston's 4th quarter 3 point % is very good. For the year, he is 55/151. In the 4th quarter it's 13/27 (48%), leaving 42/124 (34%) for quarters 1-3. His good streaks tend to be late while he throws the bricks early. I would be surprised if any other player in the league (with a large number of 3 pointers) has such a huge differential.
It is too low because the important aspect is relative success and opportunity costs. You are correct it stating that Rafer's eFG% is slightly above the league average, but you have to filter the stats. You have compare Rafer's shooting to other guards who jack treys. Even if Rafer comes out to slightly above average then (which I don't think he does), slightly above average is not enough for championship contention. If Rafer is going to take the majority of the 3's on this team, he needs to be hitting higher. Basically, the higher the 3pt%, the easier it is for the Rockets to be a GREAT team, not just a good team. And the Rocket's team 36.4% average is being hurt by Rafer because Rafer has taken the most shots. The less Rafer shoots, and the more Luther and Battier shoot, the Rockets overall 3pt % will go up. Again, this isn't entirely a bad thing on Rafer for the majority of his shots are within the flow of the game. That doesn't mean he's infallible, for he jacks up his fair share of bad shots, but overall he's decent at shot selection. All this means that Rafer's minutes should and will go down. Rafer has been forced to play so many minutes due to him being the only somewhat stable point guard on the team (with TMac injured). Search my old posts where I showed a progression of Luther's minutes...he was gradually eating all of Rafer's 4th quarter minutes with T-Mac playing point, unless the Rockets decided to go small ball. And now that Battier is out of his slump, and Bonzi is contributing, the Rockets will definitely cut down on Rafer's minutes once T-Mac is back.
Perhaps... but that might just be luck. His first 3 qtr is only 2% below his overall 36.4%. I kinda expect his shooting to go back to more even between qtrs as the season goes on and the sample size gets larger. We'll see. Hard to say right now. From game to game, he's probably not that much more streaky than anyone else. With anything that's a 35-40% proposition, you are gonna get a good deal of "streaks" just based on pure luck. Even Ray Allen has a good number of games when he can't find the bottom of the net from the arc (one of these things playing h2h fantasy bball teaches me).
But Kim, that' kinda assumes you get to pick and choose who gets open for the 3s. If it were a choice, of course you'd rather have Luther Head getting all the open looks, but those shots usually come as result of the defense leaving guys to double team and trying to rotate... so whoever has the open look shoots, unless some else is more open. It's not like Rafer's shooting them 3s with Battier and Head standing wide open beyond the arc holding their dicks. Most of the time when Rafer shoots, these guys are covered, and Rafer's got a better shot than they do, that's why he's shooting. If Rafer takes a 3 with these other guys open-- or with Yao open under the basket ready for a dunk, then it's absolutely a mistake. I would really love to see an additional PG on the roster if a trade can happen.
I already did a comprehensive evaluation of possible players to trade for before the season started here (it includes salaries...bottom of the post): http://bbs.clutchfans.com/showpost.php?p=2523446&postcount=1 The main problem is there's not that many ideal players to trade for. Two years ago, Wesley, Barry, and James turned out to be gold...to bad we traded James and Wesley and Barry were too old. The only fits left now are Mike James (probably unattainable), Derek Fisher (probably unattainable), Earl Watson (having a terrible shooting year), Damon Jones (arguably not an upgrade over Rafer), and Tyronne Lue. Tyronne freakin Lue Baby!! Atl backup PG, $3.5 million this year, 2 years left. He hit 44.6% from the elbow 3's last year (5th best) and 45.7% overall 3's (2nd best...wow). I mean, just check out his shooting chart from last year:
