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Rafael Stone the HEDGE GOD! Why Stone has done a great job rebuilding the Rockets

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Medicine N Music, Feb 9, 2023.

  1. Medicine N Music

    Medicine N Music Contributing Member
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    I wrote most of this before the Durant trade, but WOW, does he look better now!

    It seems like many Rockets fans don’t think Stone has done a good job. Some people even want to fire him? GTFO. How quickly did we forget where we were 2 years ago when Harden asked out? Obviously, Stone has had his share of misses (Eric Gordon, etc), but who bats 100%? As long as we get the important pieces right and avoid big mistakes, we are in a great position for the rebuild. Just getting 1 potential star in 2 years is good enough for most GMs. Stone has done an excellent job so far.

    Initial Situation (When Stone was promoted to GM)
    • Harden/Westbrook wanted out
    • Covington, Tucker, others on roster
    • 2021 pick swap owed to OKC (top 4 protected)
    • 2024/26 picks, 2025 swap (top 4 protected) owed to OKC
    • There was a general lack of hope for many Rockets' fans
    Covington Trade
    • Essentially traded Covington for Wood + 2 first round picks with Wood signing excellent 3 Yr/$41 million contract
    • Received potentially better player/fit in Wood, but trade would be a win even if Wood didn’t pan out (perfect hedge)
    • Wood got traded for the 26th pick and we traded back to 29th pick + 2 seconds
    • Final outcome: 3 first round picks + 2 second round picks for Covington
    Harden Trade
    • Received 3 unprotected first round picks, 4 unprotected first round swaps from Nets
    • Received 1 unprotected 2022 Bucks pick (later became 2023 through trade)
    • Allowed us to be competitive in the current year and future years while potentially getting a top picks from the Nets.
    LeVert + 2nd round pick for Oladipo
    • Was signed to 3 years $52.5 million contract at that time
    • LeVert was a good rotational player, but streaky shooter and poor defender, that may not justify his contract
    • Oladipo when healthy is an all star, but obviously hasn’t been the same since injury
    • This moved allowed us to test out a higher ceiling player without committing a longer contract
    Jarrett Allen + Prince for 2022 Bucks pick + Fillers
    • Tillman probably did not want to pay 5 year $100 million to keep him
    • Allen may have increased the Rockets’ win total, leading to decreased probability in landing Top 4 pick and hurts our future tanks
    • Rim running centers are like NFL RBs - they’re a dime a dozen.
    Jae’Sean Tate’s Contract
    • Declined his Team Option in 2022-23 for $1.8 million, but instead signed him to a 3 year contract, $22.5 million maximum, with $1.5 million in unlikely incentives
    • Only 2 Years, $13.5 million are gauranteed with last year being a Team Option
    • Contract is also decreasing where 2023-24 is $6.5 million
    • Stone basically turned his contract from an expiring to a value contract likely worth a late 1st round pick
    KPJ Contract
    • When I heard KPJ signed a 4 year $82.5 million contract, I almost fainted, but when you take a deeper look, the contract is genius
    • Only the 2023-24 season is guaranteed at $15.8 million. There is a likely $2.4 million incentive where he needs to play > 60 games and an unlikely $2.4 million incentive based on team wins and playoff metrics
    • Essentially ONLY $18.2 million is likely guaranteed
    • 2024-25 and 2025-26 are non-guaranteed and 2026-27 is a team option
    • At the rate KPJ is improving, this contract may potentially be very valuable
    Current Situation
    • Sengun - Median outcome is an all-star or near all star level player (Sabonis is already a 3 time all-star). Ceiling is a Top 10 player. GMs are celebrated after getting 1 of these players as you can attract other stars and change the whole team's outlook
    • Green - Potential all-star w/ ceiling of Booker/Beal/Lavine. Great game tonight showing he can take over games.
    • Jabari - Pending re-evaluation after 2 years. This may be a miss, but he was the only choice on draft day and only 19 years old. Strength training/muscle building, better shot selection, and overall experience will help him.
    • Tari - Potential DPOY candidate
    • Garuba - Often hated, but can guard 2-5, potentially make 3s. Very difficult to find a 3/D center that can guard in space.
    • KPJ, KMJ, JC, Tyty, Tate - Mixed feelings on them, but all may have some value
    • We have around $34.6 million in cap space (w/ ability to create more) this summer to sign an impact player.
    • We own the Nets for the next 5 years!
    • We can still be a bottom 3 team this year w/ 27.4% chance of getting either Wemby or Scoot. Stone has basically tanked hard for 3 years, but avoided scrutiny from the NBA. This is likely the reason Silas is still here and we can tank without any repercussions.
    Bottom Line
    - The Nets trade was an absolute home run despite negative reactions from many fans
    - The Covington trade was the gift that kept giving landing us 3 first round picks and 2 second round picks
    - Tate and KPJ contracts were both value adds and low risk
    - We have 1-2 potential stars that can attract other players
    - We have good rotational players and players that can develop even further
    - We own the Net's for the next 5 years
    - We have 27.4% chance of getting Wemby or Scoot (if we're bottom 3)
    - We can improve by adding an impact player this summer
    - Despite some potential missteps, Stone has done an excellent job, especially with using hedges for trades and contracts.
     
    Amel, wlekfjv923n, Rashmon and 32 others like this.
  2. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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  3. HTownTmac1

    HTownTmac1 Member

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    Perfectly said .. people need to take a chill pill and be patient .. we are in tank mode and I see so many positives. Y’all know damn well we are trying to tank for wemby . He’s a franchise changer and fits the timeline of this rebuild
     
    Ramo$e, roslolian, MadMax94$ and 5 others like this.
  4. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    He had nothing to do with this trade or this outcome so he doesn't get credit for that. He took a risk. The picks are now certainly not going to be amazing since the Nets have no incentive to tank, however they are going to be good picks. They also could have been useless picks if the big 3's health held up and the team kept accumulating good depth.

    It was a good trade from the start. When you make the trade you don't know what will happen, so you're making a bet. Given what he knew at the time, it was good trade.

    To base your assessment on how it turns out is a pointless assessment. If these picks ended up bad, it was still a good trade at the time of the trade.
     
  5. sealclubber1016

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    The fact that you are saying picking Oladipo (and offering to extend him) over LeVert was the smart move really calls in to question your objectivity.

    Where are you getting the 3rd pick from the Covington trade? We got Portland's pick (which became Garuba) and traded Wood for TyTy. Covington for those 2 players is hardly some hit it out of the park success right now.

    Court time and focus has value. We have chosen to given a ton of both to Porter, so unless he does turn into a great player or a good 1st round pick (which I dont foresee) that's a big miss. TyT

    Tate isn't getting us a first, I hope he does, but I don't see it, so another meh move, albeit not bad.

    The Harden picks were literally the most Brooklyn could give us, not some brilliant intentional hedge.

    The Sengun pick is a clear win right now, and Eason probably will be as well...but I see a lot more underwhelming choices than great ones. He grossly overplayed his hand on Wood and Gordon leading to greatly diminished trade value from what they would have gotten at their peak value. He left more trade value on the table not taking LaVert instead of Oladipo.
     
    #5 sealclubber1016, Feb 9, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2023
  6. i3artow i3aller

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  7. DatRocketFan

    DatRocketFan Member

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    Hmmm. Harden forced stone to trade him to the Nets and he made the most out of it.

    When folks review this trade in a better light it is b/c of how fast the Nets imploded, but personally i think Harden was worth a lot more than what we got.
     
  8. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    FIRE HIM ANYWAY!
    his is the worst team in nba for 3rd year in a row! i dont care about imagined 'potential' LOL

    he keeps the worst coach in nba and the worst culture
    he is a moron who thinks playing Sengod 6 minutes or 15 minutes a night is a smart move!
     
  9. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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  10. DeBeards

    DeBeards Member

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  11. bmelo

    bmelo Member

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    unpopular fact: We are worst team in the history and he had WCF finalist when he took over
     
  12. Mr Woods

    Mr Woods Member

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    The mental gymnastics with this one is something else.

    Put down the kool-aid bro @Medicine N Music
     
  13. nolimitnp

    nolimitnp Contributing Member

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    Holding on to EG has been a miss. You'd think someone would offer a 1st round pick, even if it's protected.

    Hoping he is bought out or somehow makes his way back to CP3. Would give me something to root for in the playoffs.
     
    REEKO_HTOWN likes this.
  14. BHannes2BHonest

    BHannes2BHonest 2 SOLID FOR WEIRD AZZES

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    This post from OP is more communication than Stone has given us his entire tenure :confused:
     
  15. REEKO_HTOWN

    REEKO_HTOWN I'm Rich Biiiiaaatch!

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    We suck ass. Nothing great about that.

    if you wanna sell me on assets that won’t convey for another 3 years I guess. All I know is I’ve never seen a shittier basketball team in Houston in my life.
     
  16. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    Preach! (just be ready for the scapegoat clique to chime in - this fanbase has turned into a finger pointing blame game edgy type).

    [​IMG]
     
    Zen Tabak, Corrosion and Williamson like this.
  17. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    Hi Felicia!
     
    hakeem94 likes this.
  18. txtodd

    txtodd Member

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    Some people even want to worship him? GTFO.
     
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  19. kingkingston

    kingkingston Member

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    Factually wrong. Stone took over after we lost to the Lakers in the conference semis and Morey traded assets away in the Westbrook deal.
     
  20. AroundTheWorld

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    I will comment after 3 pm ET today.
     
    Jontro, hakeem94, Ankara1923 and 3 others like this.

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