Question for those of you so upset that we might have dropped 2 spots in the lottery

Say no more! Case Closed! Now if we could only get Jeff Van Dummy to learn as quickly as you.

 

It's not so much that we won that game that was "devastating". It's that playing Howard and Wesley instead of our younger guys was stupid. I bet if Stro, Lampe, and Head got all those minutes and pulled out the victory, most of the posters would understand and at least recognize that something good came out of the win. But who the heck gives a crap about Howard shooting lights out and carrying us to the win. Where was that s*** three weeks ago.

 

The difference between #7 and #9 is important, but not as important as how it was squandered: FOR NOTHING.

Years ago, I went to the Tax Office to protest an overestimation of my house's value. The officer told me that the difference only cost me about $50 more property tax money. He looked at me and said, "So what is the problem?" I restrained myself from hitting him in his face. I said, "If you think $50 is not very important, why don't you give me 50 bucks right now out of your pocket and I'll have no more problem."

Even if the difference between these draft picks is small (for argument's sake), it is still very stupid to give it away FOR NOTHING.

 

The 7th spot has 2 more players to choose from than the 9th spot; the 7th spot has more lotto balls than the 9th spot. We lost the 7th spot for nothing. If you really can't understand why the 7th spot is better, you should look at what other teams are doing to get the spot. Look at the lineups Boston and Minnesota are putting out lately. I've watched Boston's last couple of games, they could have won despite their starting lineup, but their play was downright texans-esque down the stretch. The smart teams are losing, the dumb teams winning.

 

So it was "devasting" to the rockets that Howard played 33 minutes? It was "devasting" that FA to be Wesley played 29 minutes?

And who are you refering to when you say "instead of our younger guys?" Hmm Head is young and he's played tons of minutes this year... in this game he played 25min.

Hayes is young and he hasnt played tons of minutes but in this game he played 25min.

Swift well hes a 6yr vet but hes still young and while hes avg 20mins per this year he only played 15minutes.

Lampe well hes young and he played zero minutes... is that who you are refering to?

Sorry if I dont think its devasting to the Rockets that Lampe gets zero playing time. Sorry I also dont think its "devasting" that stromile got only 15 minutes.

 

So everyone agrees:

7 is better than 9.

End of thread.

 

OK, I am not taking any side here. Let me start by saying I hate that stupid lottery format that makes teams lose on purpose to gain better draft position and also the stupid playoff format that makes the fifth seed want to lose and position themselves into the 6th spot. I think the NBA need to revise those rules.

Now back to the discussion. Let us assume that the Rockets lost to Denver. We will be tied with Minny for the 7th spot. Then assume that all the involved teams will lose out. Then a random tie breaker had to be used between us and Minny and we could easily be in the 8th spot. Now that we won against Denver, we will have a 3 way tie for the 8th spot and if we get lucky we will end up in the 8th spot (so the Denver game would not matter). On the other extreme, it could be the difference between the 7th spot and the 10th spot.

The only other difference between winning and losing the Denver game is winning one of the top 3 spots. By winning our percentage dropped from 12.5% to 6.7%. I think this is a big drop and that is why our win over Denver could be costly. Clutch was spot on when he said watch Minny get in the top 3 then we will be real mad.

But look at the other teams and listen how their fans react to their wins and losses. For instance, Boston is tanking and their fans are loving it. They secured the 6th spots and talking about Gay, Roy and Bargnani. Golden States on the other hand lost 8 in a row and looked like a lock for the 6th spot and now they won 4 in a row. Orlando won 9 of their last 10 and went from 6th to 11th even though their playoff hopes were very slim. I wonder how their fans are reacting. Everything is relative.

 

You know what really bothered me about us winning the game? It kind of shows that the coach and the front office are not on the same page. Think about it, if they were working as a team, the FO should clearly communicate to the coach that a loss is more beneficial than a win. And the coach should just clear his bench in the 4th quarter and adhere to the wishes of the FO. Instead we have this thread going on.

 

It is devastating that we have a coach that makes this kind of decisions.

 

Why do you keep writing "devasting"?

Why would you play a FA like Wesley in this game, when he could very easily retire or go somewhere else, who cares if he gets some time in at the end of the season. Head was getting 40 plus the past two weeks and it should have stayed that way.

Stro and Hayes should have gotten all of Juwan and Deke's minutes. Stro and Hayes could use all the minutes they can get. I don't care what people think about Stro, maybe he can get better and maybe he can't, but it'll never happen with him sitting on the bench. Juwan is only going to get worse and worse no matter what he does in this game, and Deke is pretty much on his last legs.

Like I said, I don't think this victory was devastating, but it was certainly stupid.

 

Your statement is wrong in both its parts.

"The difference between 7 and 9 is important"... is a false statement as the determination of "importace" is conditioned on factors unknown and is predicated on the future outcome. For instance... who the rockets draft at 7 or 9, the resulting impact of the player and outcome are all subject to chance and the outcome unknown. The player who for instance gets drafted at 7th may have less or equal impact than the one at 9th. In such a scenario the difference between 7th or 9th is relatively UNIMPORTANT.

"it is still very stupid to give it away FOR NOTHING"... is also a false statement as the JVG and the Rocket not only did not give the pick away the cost or reward for doing so was more than NOTHING. First the Rockets didnt give thier pick away... Chuck Hayes, Bogans, Howard and Luther Head lost the pick because they chose to win the game. The cost or reward of the pick was the WIN and all the experiences with it... whether that is good or bad is subjective but its certainly not nothing.

I guarantee you that to Bogans, making the game winning steal with 13 secs left or making the game winning basket by Dunking the ball was not NOTHING. I guarantee you that if you ask Luther Head if making the 3 pointer to pull us within 5 or Bogans who made that layup to get us within 3 and then the assist to Howard to within 1 if all those accomplishments were for NOTHING, they would emphatically say NO. Bottom line... the players came back from 11 down with 3 minutes to play... and in those 3 minutes because of Head's 5 pts, Bogan's 2pts 1 assts, Howard's 6 points and Hayes' 2 rbounds and Game winning steal and Dunk the Rockets WON the game and lost the 7th pick. So while the win may be nothing to YOU, that doesnt make it an effort for NOTHING for them or everyone else.

Lastly was it stupid for Bogans, Head, Hayes and Howard to all give such effort for the win. I dont think so, but hey thats just my opinion.

 

How valuable could be for a 7th pick?

Check the history of 2001 draft.

 

Our overall team value is so low that it hurts even more to just flush some value down the toilet. The mavs or spurs could blow a draft, and no one cares. Right now, we have 3 players who have a real future on this team, and one is a rookie. Acquiring young talent should be the number one priority, and we intentionally dealt ourselves a blow in that department.

 

If you arent arguing that the moves were devasting to the ROckets or that they would cost the rockets in some unimaginable way... why did you qoute my initial post to respond to? Hmm maybe you misread my initial post and what its points were.

If you think Stro and Hayes not getting more minutes than they are gettin is "stupid" well thats nice... Thanks for sharing... I'm sure Hubie Brown, Mike Fratello and the rest of the league thanks you for that vital info about Hayes and Stro.

And its big deal to you that Head played *only* 25 minutes when he's played a ton the entire season? But at the same time you think its *stupid* that Wesley played tooo muchh at 29 minutes? LOL thats only 4 more than what you deemed too little.

But anyway if your gripe is about minutes and player rotations well that has nothing to do with my initial post and I would contend even less to do with the topic... (unless your talking about playing Bowen or Lampe major minutes that is and thats too horrible to even think about)

 

So what makes you so sure there's no big difference between the 7th lottery seed and the 9th? For one thing, some have already pointed out that the draft could very well be 7-8 deep. And this isn't taking into consideration more than doubling the number of lottery balls for a 1-3 pick. The options the Rockets have with a top 3 pick changes dramatically, even if none of the top players fits our bill. A top 3 pick can easily be worth an all-star wanting out of a bad situation(Paul Pierce perhaps?) whereas pick #9 gets you an average starter.

 

You're absolutely right that it does mean something to those players(some of whom may be auditioning for other teams).

But that win means absolutely jack to the Rockets as a team. AS A TEAM going into next year, what has more value:

1. players making some clutch plays in a game where the outcome is so meaningless, that those plays and comeback came against the other team's bench. (wow, our role players can beat their scrubs), or

2. gaining two, OR MORE, spots to broaden your choice, be in a better spot for a valued player to slide, increase your lottery odds, etc?

Again, going back to the Niners(and using your line of thinking on the value of a win in this circumstance), that OT kick sure meant alot personally to the kicker and the players who made plays to get him in position for the kick, but what good did it do for the Niners AS A TEAM? Oh, that's right, it dropped them to the 6th spot in the draft. In other words, that win meant WORSE than nothing to the team...it actually harmed the team no matter how good those players might have felt about beating the mighty Texans in OT.

 

First off I didn't even quote your initial post. I was just replying in general that while I didn't think the loss was devastating, it was certainly stupid. You were the one who quoted me first. And you kept writing "devasting" when you originally spelled it correctly as devastating, so that confused the hell out of me. I thought you were making some kind of sarcastic comment.

It's pretty simple to me. It's not the amount of minutes to Wesley that I objected to. It's the fact that we're giving a 35 year old free agent any minutes in spite of our rookie.

I mean doesn't it make a little more sense to give those minutes to a rookie with his whole career in front of him, who we expect to be part of our future over a veteran free agent who might not be on our team next year, and might not even be in the league at that.

 

It's pretty unbelievable to me how everyone is making such a huge deal about this. The G**amn lottery hasn't even happened yet. So we get one or two fewer ping pong balls, big frickin deal.

As much as I realize it would benefit the Rockets to lose all the remaining games when playoffs are out of reach, I still find myself disapointed in the losses. I was pretty pumped to see them win the Denver game, and it's pretty obvious the players were very happy to win the game.

The success of next season will hinge MUCH more on the health of T-Mac than moving 2 or 3 spots down in the lottery.

I think the Rockets are showing a lot of professionalism by actually trying to win the games.... that 's like an oxymoron.

 

What I stated was, "The difference between the likely impact/success of the 7th pick and the 9th pick of this year's draft is marginal."
The reason I am so certain of this is history. Historically, the NBA draft has always been a crapshoot Especially pertaining to picks out of the top 5. Scouting, talent evaluation, projected success etc are all more art than science... but mostly its more luck than anything else. Furthemore this year is even more of a crapshoot as the draft is widely acknowledge as one of the weakest draft in history. A player taken 9th is just as likely to succeed as one taken 6th 7th or 8th. The reason being is simple... the variables in their ability to succeed are wide varied and unmeasurable. Those things that are measureble such as college success, speed, skill etc are only a fraction of what determine thier success on the next level. Those few who have demonstrated talent and success to such a great level that leaves future success less of a guess are usually chosen in the first 5 and often 3 picks.

In this case we are talking about the 7th and the 9th where the difference between the talent, skill, record, etc of the players are often marginally better or less than one another. In another words the chances either is going to become an all star is relatively the same. And that chance is low. In the past 15 drafts from 91 - 05 the difference between what became the 7th pick and what became the 9th pick is marginal. Since its too early to judge the 05 and 04 picks, (C.Villa & Ike D AND Deng & Iggy) in 13 drafts from 1991 to 03 the 7th pick has resulted in:

Hinrich
Nene
E.Griffin
Mihm
Hamiliton
Jason William
L.Wright
T.Thomas
D.Stoudamire
L.Murray
Bobby Hurley
Walt Williams
Luc Longley

While the 9th pick has resulted in:

Sweetney
Amare
Rodney White
Pryzbilla
S.Marion
Dirk Nowitzki
Samaki W
T.Mcgrady
E.Obannon
E.Montross
R.Rodgers
C.Weatherspoon
S.Augmon

So the 9th resulted in 4 all stars in T-Mac, Dirk, Marion and Amare while the 7th resulted in 1 all star Richard Hamilton and 2 other good players Hinrich and D. Stoudamire. So while it seemed like the 9th resulted in better players it does not mean the 9th is the better pick. For the most part both picks resulted in average players whos performace is ultimately only marginally better or worse than thier counterpart. History thus show us that the sucess of the player picked 9th or 7th is likely to vary so greatly that its impossible to predict and that the best bet is that the 7th pick ultimately is NOT going to result in a significantly better player than 9th.

I guess I should change my 3rd statement to: "the likelyhood that the 7th pick resulting in a better player than the 9th is marginal at best."

 

The win does have value to the rockets precisely because the players value it! The players are the one who make up the team! If its important to the players it means its important to the team since players = team!

If you are argueing it has no value to you then I'd agree, thats your opinion.
Butif you are posing the question of value to the team and hence to the players... I think they like me would choose the experience of coming back and winning the game.

If your are asking me what has more value, the win or the pick? I would've like the pick but it doesnt bother me that much they got the win. The truth is the value of the resulting 7 pick is not that much more than the 9th pick Historically and especailly this year.

The 49ers analogy is incorrect as in that case it was the difference between a top 2 pick to a 6th pick and its in an nfl draft that has arguebly one of the strongest top 3 candidate in recent history. This nba draft on the other hand... is bleh. But yes I am unfortunately a 49ers fan and was one of those fans who wished they lost that game. The risk reward scenario was much greater in that case than this. It is much more likely for the Bush, Leinart or Young to be a star in the nfl than the 6th pick the 49ers choose than it is that the 7th pick the ROckets get is going to be better than the 9th pick they get. Hell I'm not even sure Gay will be better than Brewer in the NBA.
So no I dont begrudge the players for winning.

m_cable: Ahhh LoL my bad, for some reason I thought you were the one who quoted me... As for typing "devasting" um yeah that was sarcasm!

Lastly about the minutes distribution of Head, Hayes etc... I think thats for another thread but I dont think its a big deal since they did play 25 mins and Head has been getting minutes all year.