Question for those of you so upset that we might have dropped 2 spots in the lottery

r-fat, you're right in that no one or two guys stand out head and shoulders above everyone else in this draft. And overall everyone seems to consider this a blah kind of draft with alot of hit and miss potential, etc.

But, of those who have declared so far,plus seniors, there is a definite group of six or so that are viewed as more desirable than the next group of ten or so after that. The question you asked should not be directed at us, but rather at the Rockets. You have to assume they DO have one or two guys in that top group that they would really like to mix in with Yao and TMac. Let's say you're the Rockets...are your chances of having your preferred player or two slide to you better at 7 or 9?

Considering the good chance a flip would've put them at 6 and now the flip could land them at 10, that makes the Denver win even more aggravating and contrary to the best interests of the team's future.

Bottom line, even if your desired player or two were gone by pick 6, wouldn't you rather have your choice of the "leftovers" at 7, rather than settle for the leftover of the "leftovers" at 9? The value of 7 vs 9 is that, regardless of the talent pool level, you have greater control of your future at 7, whereas someone controlled your future at 9.

Again, how great do the Niners feel today about that stupid, meaningless OT victory when they're picking 6th in a draft with 4 or 5 upper level players?

 

No, I didn't quote you...

It's obvious that anyone would take the 7th spot before the 10th...The diff could be huge, this draft is by my understanding pretty weak, so even one spot for the houston rockets could make a difference...

 

awesome Clutch!

 

I think people overreacted too. We have no idea really how this draft will shape up. Many people say the talent level drops off after the 7th or 8th pick. I think that is not true. I think there are way more projects in the 1st-8th pick that many teams are going to be forced to taking because of their "potential" to be a star. There will still be many NBA ready players that have the potential to be quality NBA players rather than stars(which is what we need anyway) at the #8 or #9 spot. Yes it sucks that we probably won't get Roy, but who knows what will happen. Players stock rise and drop all the time before the draft. I say don't get to mad yet, I know it sucks that we dropped a couple of spots, but let's wait and see where this takes us. Maybe we will have some better Karma than some of these teams in tank mode.

 

The draft is always a crap shoot anyway.....IMHO it doesn't really make a bit of difference. We did ok with the 24th pick last year...

 

What's your point? You mean JVG knows the players he wants to pick will be definitely available at 9th, 10 or 11th? Or that chance is better than at 7th?

if you don't take 7th>9th as an answer, let's look at what you wrote:
the player the rockets wanted at 7 could easily be the player we would have taken a few picks later anyway

So my question to you: why leave yourself to chances, "would have taken"? Unless you know JVG knows it's definitely there?

and not to mention the trade down possibilities.

 

You still don't get it. Read Clutch's post.

First, it is not which player we want, it is about value. #7 is more valuable than #9. That is pretty simple. If you factor in the alleged "talent drop off" at 8, the difference is even more drastic. But even if the talent level doesn't drop off a lot between #7 and #9, it is still pretty simple fact that #7 is more valuable than #9. And the win pretty much exchanged a more valuable thing for a less valuable thing for NOTHING.

Second, the main thing about JVG's coaching decision in last night's game is not so much about how much damage that caused, although we think that is quite a bit, it is about how stupid he was in doing so. It's like if you have an employee who gives away $10 gift cards when people are paying and asking for a $8 card, you fire him not because of the $2 difference, but because of his stupidity. Who knows what damage such a stupid guy would cause in the future.

 

One is the loneliest number.........

 

bottom line:

yes. it's possible that a player the rockets want will be available when we pick.

no. niether i nor the rockets know who they want right now anyway.


however, i'd rather pick higher rather than lower. plain and simple.

 

Rodney Carney was realistic at 7. Brandon Roy was an outside possibility. Depending on workouts, even Rudy Gay could have been there at 7. Most likely all three are gone by our pick now.

 

FACT: Having the 7th pick IS better than having the 9th. Probablity of a top 3
pick in 7th is incrementally higher than at 7th.

FACT: Winning one game and ending up with the 9th pick IS NOT DEVASTATING
nor does it neccesarily or likely negatively affect the Rockets Future.

FACT: The difference between the likely impact/success of the 7th pick and the
9th pick of this year's draft is marginal.

Conclusion: Sure the 7th pick is nice... I'd take it. But Beating the Nuggets and losing a shot at the 7th pick and getting the 9th this year is not a BIG DEAL. It DOES not Determine if the Rockets succeed next year or the year after. And it sure as hell is not worth crying about.

 

I dont want to speak for rocketfat, but I think what he is taking issue with is not that the 7th isnt better than the 9th pick but rather the many many posts proclaiming that the win in denver was "DEVASTATING to the Rockets future" or my peronal facorite "Will COST the Rockets for years to come" or "Winning that game was Worst thing JVG to do EVA!" or the countless other chicken little, panic stricken, curse ridden, cliff jumping, *submit your own* posts about this in the GARM the past week.

Yes 7th is better than 9th... but lets not act like beating the nuggets was the end of next year.

 

You're right, the difference between a #7 pick and #10 pick could be marginal.

But it does not negate the fact that a #7 pick WILL ALWAYS be more valuable than a #10 pick. It will be more valuable in terms of who you WANT and in terms of trade value.

Since you want specific players, here it is:

Even though this draft is considered quite weak, there are 6-7 good players that the Rockets could use:

1. Aldridge
2. Thomas
3. Morrison
4. Bargnani
5. Roy
6. Gay
7. Carney

We would have had a legitimate shot at one of these guys, by moving down spots, we are guaranteed nothing. There is a pretty good chance that we will be left with a crap shoot as a lottery team, which will be even worse considering the weakness of this draft.