Question about a potential matchup with the Jazz...

The essence of what you're typing breaks down to one simple equation...

Adelman + ScoLandry + Mutombo + current Alston > Van Gundy + Yao + Hayes/Howard + prior Alston


Respectfully disagree. Alston hasn't proven to me he can stop an elite PG, Deke is worse than Yao on Okur, and Boozer will put a ton of fouls on the rookies which puts Utah into the bonus sooner.

But the primary reason I'm not drinking the 22 Win Kool-Aid. They pack the paint like they did under VG as evidenced by their overall defensive FG%. But there are only 7 NBA teams with a worse 3pt defensive FG%. A team rotating the likes of Deke, Scola, Landry, Battier, Alston, Head, Hayes, and Jackson to perimeter shooters and/or weakside ball action has a huge Achilles Heel IMHO.

 

Yao ming might score 20 pts for us against jazz last year but he lost 30 pts/game to boozer on the other end and reb isn't really his strength. This year with out him might actually be a gain for rockets ( im not saying the rockets are better team without yao in general, its all matchups). So i like the chances of this team going into the playoffs having to face jazz in 1st round. Just dont give me suns, spurs, or a healthy lakers.

 

How we play Boozer will continue to be the X-factor. Last year he killed Yao so it will be interesting to see how two quicker players like Scola, Landry or Harris play him.

On the flip side we're going to need those exact same guys to create some points inside 10 feet of the basket that we're missing without Yao. Utah will squash us in six games if we become too reliant on the jump shots. We can't just stand 30 feet away from the basket chucking three point bombs all night and praying they go in.

T-Mac will need to keep a steady pulse of the momentum of the game too. If we start to shoot cold he's going need to know when to step up, drive and break down the defense to attack the rim. Likewise, players are going to need to continue to cut and move without the ball to play off of him. Adelman emphasizes this kind of movement which is one point that works to our advantage. Despite how well T-Mac and Yao played last year, the PnR and kick out three pointers had became all too predictable. With Adelman and his offensive components we don't really have that problem. Let's hope our offense continues to flow.

 

Actually, only 6 teams give up a higher percentage on 3-point shots (we're 7th worst in that statistic).

However, limiting conversion rate is only one component of defending the 3-point line. You also want to chase defenders off that shot. And, in fact, the percentage of FGA attempted by opponents that are 3-point shots is only 18.5%. That's third best in the league. So, though Rockets opponents shoot the 3 ball well, we also prevent them from taking a lot of those shots on the season. Consequentially, if you look at ability to limit opponent's overall efficiency from the field, only Boston does a better job.

 

No more Derek Fisher! I really think he handled T-Mac pretty well last year. He played physical and made him a jump shooter all series long. This year with better ball movement and insurance at PG(Bobby) in case Rafer sucks!

 

The good thing is that Utah lost today so we still have a 2 game lead on them. they lost to the T-Wolves.

 

Utah seems to me like the worst team in the West that will make the playoffs. It is not that the Rockets are better, they are a lot worse than last year.

 

Just a few observations:

1/ If we play Utah in the first round, Dikembe will see almost no playing time. He can't match up with either Okur or Boozer defensively. And Dikembe can't punish them on the offensive end. That's why Dikembe saw no PT when Yao was out with the flu against the Jazz.

2/ Derrick Fisher was a solid contributor for the Jazz last year. He hit big shots and was able to guard Tmac effectively sometimes. The Jazz are worst off without Fisher

3/ As we saw Luther Head choke in the playoffs even though he had a solid regular season last year, we just can't predict how our rookies will do in the post season. Scola, Landry and they are major parts of the rotation.

4/ Yao averaged 25 ppg and over 10 rpg last year in the first round. He also had the best FG% of the team. Tmac was in the 30% in FG.

 

Yao averaged 25 ppg in the series just like Tmac but Yao did it on OK FG% compared to Tmac's 30% FG