Yeah, it sucked. It's over, though. This isnt necessarily what's going to happen...it's what has already happened. The media reports this and I think the general public assumes something worse is happening....instead of happened. I'm not saying tomorrow is all sunshine and roses, either. And I won't be surprised if the first quarter of 2009's numbers aren't equally bad or worse....because we were certainly hearing they will be. I think you're going to see the market rebound in June...and that will be a leading indicator that things are improving. Not massive recovery...but light at the end of the tunnel. My $.02. Probably not even worth that.
i hope so. i just don't see any reason to believe it will. the banks will be a mess until we nationalize and purge. the gov't just is too hesitant to do that. lay offs will continue. its a self fulfilling cycle. i don't see how we break out of it.
I'm with you on layoffs. Let's assume June is the magic date when we've hit bottom and things start heading up...count about 9 months out from there, and that's when you'll be at the peak of unemployment. I'm not telling you everyone will have a job in June. Only speaking about the market. I think fear creates "inverse bubbles"...and I think we have a lot out there that's undervalued because of it. When people make bold statements of exuberance, that's usually the time to sell. When people make dire, end-of-the-world statements, that's usually the time to buy back in. If you have assets, there's no easier time to make money than in a down economy. And I don't mean as an attorney. This is where you find REAL value in all sorts of assets. I saw commercial real estate notes at 6% just a year or so back...I have no idea how you make money and find value in a super-pumping economy like that.
this is an abnormal recession, it won't be over in June. this is a fundamental change in our economy. there are retail jobs that are never coming back because there is retail credit that has been extended over the last twenty five years that is never coming back. gm is already asking for another $16BB to stay afloat. the government had comitted to pump in more money into Citi over last night.
I did not say the recession would be over in June, pgabriel. I said the market will have bottomed out by then...my best guess.
it may hit the bottom but that bottom will extend for 9-18 months. i just don't see how the market can drop below 5-6k so that has to be the bottom. but doesn't mean corporations wont keep slipping. retail shopping is just horrendous. all the mall stores that are declaring bankruptcy have to go liquidation. no one is getting dip lending. honestly i think the government will end up dip financing to GM and similarly perhaps to other corporations too. Q1 of 09 will be worse than Q4. imagine two quarters averaging negative gdp growth of 7-8%. there is just now way Q1 won't be a 9-10% drop in gdp. that has an impact on the bottom line of companies which will transfer to the market.
1. I don't think the bottom will extend that long. We'll see. 2. Totally agreed on Q1 of 09...I think I said that in my very first post here. 3. market usually is a leading indicator...not a lag. you don't invest based on what happened 3 months ago. if you're doing that, you're losing.
it's not about losing these days...it's about how you're doing going forward. what's lost is lost. i believe there are lots of undervalued assets out there that you can acquire now and ride back up with.
What's it based on? The problem with this one is that it is not like the others and so I think it is foolish to guess recovery times based on previous recessions. The one constant now seems to be that the expected bad news is actually worse when it really gets here. I don't see any traction out there whatsoever. I do hope you are right about June... I remain more pessimistic.
as a side note... i thought it was pretty funny the other day when i heard the quote that obama was gonna reduce the deficit to 560+ billion in 2013 and they said that deficit would be 3% of GDP. the funny thing is if you project that 3% number out then it puts GDP around 17.7 trillion. if you use the 4q gdp from 08 then that puts the govts expected annual rate of growth for the gdp at 5.5+% lol. what a joke these guys are. they just throw a crap load of numbers out and hope we don't actually figure anything out.
is there any chance in hell of this happening? Q1: no way its below Q4 08. so chalk up Q1 at 7% drop. Q2 is not going to get better. probably worse. 7% is realistic. lets be very optimistic and think the drop has stopped being so sever by Q3 and its still at 4% and Q4 at 2%. that is VERY optimistic and eveh then its almost 5% drop in 09. they're projecting .1% up? .1% up in 09 and 4% up in 10? if the collective drop is ~1-2% we'd all be giddy. quotes from economist.
what he said. these guys were pulling people out of the market months before it hit bottom...of course, that contributes to it...self-fulfilling prophecies.
