It's definitely not a meaningless "fluke." Battier's EFG% declined every year just like his FG% did 06-07 .567 07-08 .540 08-09 .538 09-10 .511 What that means is that decoupling 3point shooting, his shooting is getting worse. Even a cursory look across shooting stats shows a trending decline. Even in 3 point shooting where Battier best retains his efficacy, your own rounded stats shows he's generally declining: As I've explained, and as you understand in Battier's case both his TS and ORTG are propped up by his 3 point shooting, in 08-09 it's inflated by particularly good FT shooting. Otherwise he is declining, per the stats. For what I mean revisit this clip you posted to emphasize the fact that "Battier rarely ever got himself open in any of his 4 years as a Rocket, especially for his jumpers, and especially for the 3s" by linking a clip where Battier gets himself open for a jumper, especially the 3: <object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/STrs94U7Gbo?fs=1&hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/STrs94U7Gbo?fs=1&hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object> Battier basically has 2 shots he'll take: a pure catch and shoot and a shot like the one you posted, when he uses something (this case a pump fake) to get a bit of separation. He's getting worse at the latter as indicated by his numbers, particularly on shots inside the 3 point line where he might have to do more than throw one lazy pump fake to get a shot off, even when given the ball in decent possession. The correct formula for TS = TPx50/(FGA+(FTA*.44)). You'll have to provide a reference for this one you used to break out 2 pointers. On cursory glance it looks like you just took out the 3pointers from a decimalized dress-up version of the original formula. Since TS% is a simple method to add FTs and weigh 3 pointers more than 2 pointers, can you explain what you're doing? Honestly I'm not sure what use broken-out 2pointers would be since the entire point of TS is to incorporate 3s. And if you're going to credit all his FTs to 2 pointers, then the "TS%" on 3 pointers (TS sans 2 pointers and FTs) would simply be his 3P% (which is 36.2 for the year in question)? You realize that by plugging in that data you essentially just inflated Battier's 3P shooting % by 1.5. The problem is that TS is an actual weighted percentage, unlike ORTG which is a rating. You can't just cut out component parts of a formula to fit your own needs lol. Well, lol in the sample size you provided of two Battier 3 pointer attempts, he used "speed" or "individual skill" to get open on 1 of 2 shots he took. I guess "rarely" is subjective but it's going to be hard to argue that 50% is "rare." As for a,b and c: A) Last year, a smaller percentage of Battier's shots were 2 pointers than in 06-07 when his ORTG and TS% where highest. The numbers dont support your reasoning for the decline(i.e. 2s vs 3s shot selection). As for coaching, I don't recall Adelman ever using Battier to do anything but take catch and shoot jumpers and the rare cherry pick/post up. Is there a season I missed where we ran isolations for Battier, or had him drive to the hoop? I don't agree that coaching strategy or role for Battier accounts for his diminishing efficacy. His diminishing efficacy accounts for his diminishing efficacy. B) Battier only sporadically played with Tmac in 08-09 yet both his TS% and ORTG for that year are better than when he played an entire season with him in 07-08? lol? C) yes and that's why his numbers including all advanced metrics for shooting % and offensive efficacy were all dramatically down last year. You were right that I was exaggerating Battier's overall uselessness inside the 3 point arc. Macro, though we are in agreement that Battier is still worth his rotation on the team on the offensive end, primarily because of 3point shooting. As for his established decline, we disagree on whether it's all because of TMAC DUR or because he's a 30 year old dude with 10 years of mileage in the league.
