There might not be a good indication of that until early next year. Thanks to this diode shortage, both sides are having difficulties getting their players to the market. To give you an idea on how slow things are going, HD-DVD has pretty much all the advantages at the moment (better picture/sound quality, more space, more movies, cheaper, etc.), and I think they've only sold about 50K systems or so (last I read). The PS3 will help things for Blu-ray since it will provide ~400K BR players. The BDA has had a number of blunders so far (not unlike Sony and the PS3...though they're kind of related I guess), but they might be able to get things together by the end of the year (better movie support, better picture/sound quality, more storage, etc...maybe cheaper, or just as cheap, if you count the PS3). Of course, it is still possible that whoever "wins" the war, they may not be accepted by consumers.
